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Tom Carnduff's tips: Best bets in Premier League, EFL, 2. Bundesliga, Ligue 1 for November 1-3
- Tom Carnduff's Weekend Tips: Staked = 75pts | Returned = 62.31pts | P/L = -12.69pts | ROI = -17%
Football betting tips: EFL
1pt Japhet Tanganga to score anytime in Millwall vs Burnley (15:00) at 22/1 (General)
The never-ending cycle of football continued with Carabao Cup in midweek, although I won't complain about that because there's some variety to the potential winner this time around - even if it is all-Premier League remaining.
Focus quickly turns to the usual league action which takes place over the next few days. As ever, I have put together a Notebook column which highlights a few things of interest to consider for the next round of fixtures.
This weekend also sees the FA Cup first round taking place and there's a separate tipping piece picking out five potential shocks to consider backing.
Due to that, this column may well feature fewer bets than usual but it does still contain some selections that have caught my eye.
Let's get on with it.
Millwall vs Burnley
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Sunday
- TV: Sky Sports Football
- Home 17/4 | Draw 10/3 | Away 8/15
One of the division's biggest under-performers in Millwall face a tough challenge as they welcome high-flying Burnley to the Den in Sunday's televised contest.
Neil Harris' side are seeing the results starting to match their performances at least as they now sit 10th in the Sky Bet Championship table - just one of their last seven have ended in defeat.
There is some appeal in the double chance in Millwall's favour as the Clarets have been held to draws in four of their last six. Instead, there is one standout price in the goalscorer market.
At 22/1, JAPHET TANGANGA is available with multiple bookmakers to SCORE ANYTIME.
Burnley have been a strong enough side at defending set-piece situations this season but that is aided by their returns at Turf Moor. On the road, it's a different story.
They have conceded at least a shot to a centre-back in each of their last five away games in all competitions.
Jake Cooper is Millwall's biggest aerial threat yet his price stands at 12/1. Despite this, Tanganga has more than played his part in threatening at attacking situations.
The defender has registered a shot in six of his ten league outings, with a season-high three coming in their home win over Sheffield Wednesday at the end of August.
Set-pieces are a huge strength of Millwall's and they'll be looking to capitalise in this contest. In terms of the underlying numbers, they sit sixth for expected goals (xG) created from free-kicks and corners from the 92 in England's top-five divisions.
This game may present Tanganga with a chance to grab his first of the campaign.
Already advised
2pts Over 2.5 goals in Ulm vs Schalke (17:30) at 17/20 (bet365)
2pts Over 2.5 goals in Cardiff vs Norwich (15:00) at 17/20 (William Hill)
1pt Matheus Nunes to score anytime in Bournemouth vs Manchester City (15:00) at 7/1 (General)
1pt Matheus Nunes 1+ assists in Bournemouth vs Manchester City (15:00) at 9/2 (William Hill)
0.5pt Matheus Nunes to score 2+ goals in Bournemouth vs Manchester City (15:00) at 80/1 (bet365)
1pt Moise Bombito to score anytime in Brest vs Nice (18:00) at 18/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
Ulm vs Schalke
- Kick-off time: 17:30 GMT, Friday
- TV: Live Streaming
- Home 11/8 | Draw 9/4 | Away 13/8
Friday's 2. Bundesliga action takes us to a clash between two struggling sides, as Ulm welcome Schalke in a game that has the potential to be more entertaining than the odds suggest.
Schalke - one of Germany's most successful clubs - find themselves stuck in the second tier. The 22/23 campaign delivered relegation from the Bundesliga and they followed that by finished 10th last season.
The current campaign has them 15th after ten games, only goal difference keeping them out of the relegation places.
A price of 17/20 is available on OVER 2.5 GOALS which is worth backing given the away side's involvement.
A total of eight of those ten games have seen three or more goals scored with both teams contributing. Schalke sit 7th for goals but second for amount conceded. It's a side desperately let down by its defence.
Ulm aren't prolific scorers but they see more of their chances come in home contests than they do away. Four of their five games in front of their own supporters have hit the over 2.5 goals marker.
German football is renowned for goals with a focus on attack over defence and this is a league that has seen an average of 3.38 goals scored per match across the 90 played this season.
These two can continue the trend in an early kick-off on Friday.
Bournemouth vs Manchester City
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 17/4 | Draw 10/3 | Away 8/15
I wanted to include Manchester City in the latest This Week's Acca because we never usually do. Prices of 4/7 are available on an away victory.
MATHEUS NUNES provided a big price winner at 15/2 when he scored in City's defeat to Tottenham in the Carabao Cup last time out and he's the subject of interest again here.
I'm happy to take the 7/1 on a GOAL ANYTIME, with 5s the lowest price to draw some real interest.
He finished that contest with two efforts on target as he started out on the left. His goal came as a result of a deep cross from Savinho where he was unmarked at the back post.
That was his third goal of the campaign yet some bookmakers are pricing him as a defensive midfielder. With City's injury issues, he is likely to start on the left of the attack again here.
"It's been a LONG time coming."
— Sky Sports Football (@SkyFootball) October 30, 2024
Nunes side-volleys home at the back post for Man City just before half-time 👀 pic.twitter.com/PsFlk9rvBw
I'm going for the same approach as my last City preview so I'll also side with the 80/1 on NUNES TO SCORE 2+ at smaller stakes.
He could have easily had an ASSIST in that contest too so there's appeal in the 9/2 for one to land here.
Nunes has registered two assists in the Premier League alongside two in the Champions League so far and his position out wide massively benefits this.
With Erling Haaland in the side - which he wasn't on Wednesday - there is someone there to convert. Even without him in north London, Nunes still created two chances which led to shots.
Cardiff vs Norwich
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 8/5 | Draw 12/5 | Away 6/4
I'm revisiting what was ultimately an unsuccessful tip from last week but Cardiff's return to playing in front of their own supporters opens up value once again.
With 17/20 on offer for OVER 2.5 GOALS, it's one of the standout selections from Saturday's 3pm action.
Last week delivered a 0-0 draw with West Brom but the Baggies have struggled with creating chances. They seem to be focusing heavily on defensive solidity.
We couldn't quite say the same for Norwich who have conceded 16 goals in their 12 games so far, with their overall expected goals against (xGA) figure sitting at 15.91 - the tenth-highest in the league.
Cardiff's three home games under Omer Riza's interim guidance so far have delivered eight goals with chances worth a total of 6.03 expected goals (xG). That is a considerably higher amount than the start of the campaign.
Norwich's attack has been strong too - only Sunderland (23) have scored more than the 22 on their tally at this stage. It's no real surprise that half of their games so far have gone over 2.5 goals.
This is a price that will likely factor in Cardiff's numbers before the managerial change. I'll side with goals to flow given their new approach.
Brest vs Nice
- Kick-off time: 18:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 8/5 | Draw 12/5 | Away 6/4
I'm going to stick with a topic I raised in the recent edition of the Notebook because it appears to have continued.
Brest still have problems defending set-pieces against teams who operate with a back-three. Due to this, I'm taking the 18/1 on Nice's MOISE BOMBITO TO SCORE ANYTIME.
Here's the thing, this issue seems to have evolved to most opponents. It's developed into a problem area for the hosts.
Leverkusen's Jonathan Tah had an effort on target in their Champions League encounter while Reims' Joseph Okumu scored from three total shots last time out.
Two of Rennes' back-three had a shot - Mikayil Faye's on target - while two of Le Havre's trio each had two the game prior.
Nice have been operating in a 3-5-2 variation throughout this season and Bombito has emerged as their biggest aerial threat. He registered a shot against Monaco in their previous game.
It's a big price given the problems the hosts are facing - Nice also sit sixth for quality of chances created from set-pieces in France's top-flight too.
Odds correct at 1330 GMT (31/10/24)
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