Football betting tips: Premier League, Bundesliga
Saturday
1pt Over 11.5 corners in Hoffenheim vs Mainz (14:30) at 23/10 (BoyleSports)
1pt Southampton Over 5.5 corners vs Aston Villa (15:00) at 19/5 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
1pt Harry Kane to score from outside the area in Bayern vs Dortmund (17:30) at 10/1 (bet365)
Is this the best Champions League we've seen in a while? I think it might just be.
The new format was met with 'old man yells at cloud' style criticism and yet it's given us a brilliant level of entertainment since the very start.
The knockout stages haven't failed to deliver either. Big hitters are falling while the games have been gripping - teams are actually playing with the intent to win.
That's nice, isn't it? A winger actually looking to beat a man as opposed to turning around and playing it backwards. Players actually shooting rather than yer 'set piece coach' telling you to cross so he can continue to get bizarre (and undeserved) focus. It feels like...football.
Ah, now who is the old man yelling at the cloud?
The second legs are to come next week and I honestly am looking forward to watching them all but for now the usual weekend action takes precedence.
As ever, further games may be added following initial publication dependent on the markets available.
Hoffenheim vs Mainz
- Kick-off time: 14:30 BST, Saturday
- Home 13/8 | Draw 12/5 | Away 6/4
A significant game at both ends of the Bundesliga table.
Hoffenheim are back in relegation trouble, even if a five-point gap between themselves and the bottom three is just about comfortable enough at this stage.
Mainz are in the battle for the top four, so much so that they currently occupy the final Champions League spot. That would be a painful one for me.
Why? Because in pre-season I looked at Mainz's European potential with Bo Henriksen at the helm. So much so that I have all the stats worked out in a note on my laptop from August 13.
I didn't back it. I wanted top six odds as I fancied them to do just that but didn't think they'd have enough for the top four which is what the bookmakers were offering.
I'd like a drop off if I'm honest, but it's nothing personal.
Anyway, this game, OVER 11.5 CORNERS is my approach at a price of 23/10.
It should be a competitive contest because both sides desperately need the points for their different aims. The form across the season makes it possible.
For Mainz, 54% of their 28 games this season have seen the corner count hit double figures, while the figure stands at a considerable 68% for Hoffenheim.
It helps that the 'outsiders' - the team further down the table in this case - are the home side here as that gives me more confidence in the potential for the corner count to go high if they're chasing.
There were 11 corners when the sides last met in December. I'll side with there being one more here.
Odds correct at 1110 BST (11/04/25)
Southampton vs Aston Villa
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 9/2 | Draw 16/5 | Away 8/15
Southampton are Premier League history makers.
It's just a shame for them that it's in a way they would have hoped to avoid. The earliest relegation in terms of gameweek achieved following Sunday's defeat to Tottenham.
That was followed by Ivan Juric's departure being announced on Monday. A campaign which has been a disaster since the very start.
At least their fate is now confirmed. The focus turns to getting the required two points to avoid being labelled the worst ever Premier League side.
There's no real basis to this bet in terms of previous weeks yet I fancy the near 4/1 on SOUTHAMPTON OVER 5.5 CORNERS.
The pressure is now off for the home side. They have nothing worthwhile to play for and with an interim coach in charge, the likelihood is they play with a bit more freedom.
Aston Villa are in the midst of a Champions League quarter-final tie with PSG and while they may have lost the first leg they're not out of it at all.
The Saints have taken at least four corners in three of their last four in front of their own supporters. This is about a change in the dugout and their circumstances though, there's no fear to their approach now.
Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund
- Kick-off time: 17:30 BST, Saturday
- TV: Sky Sports Football
- Home 2/5 | Draw 4/1 | Away 11/2
'Der Klassiker' returns with far less riding on it than previous years yet a meeting between Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund is always one worth watching.
The hosts are closing in on earning their Bundesliga title back; the visitors battling to cling onto their spot in the top half.
Both were beaten in midweek Champions League action yet one is still in their tie. Bayern trail by a single goal to Inter while Dortmund were hammered 4-0 in Barcelona.
Expect full strength sides despite those ongoing ties though. That should mean HARRY KANE is involved from the off and the 10/1 for him to SCORE FROM OUTSIDE THE AREA is certainly interesting.
While he may have only scored twice from distance in the league this season, the fact that 24% of his shots have been from outside the area shows that it could have been more.
We know what the England captain is capable of. He often looks to drop deep and has the ability to strike from range. On average, he's seeing just shy of one shot per game from outside of the box.
The rate has increased in recent weeks though. Nine of the 23 have come in their last five games with three of those being on target.
Considering Kane's short price to strike - some bookmakers go as short as 8/15 - there is some value in taking this method for a goal.
Already advised
Friday
2pts Vitoria Guimaraes most corners vs Gil Vicente (20:15) at 4/5 (Sky Bet)
Gil Vicente vs Vitoria Guimaraes
- Kick-off time: 20:15 BST, Friday
- Home 5/2 | Draw 2/1 | Away 21/20
Action from the Portuguese Primeira Liga on Friday night where relegation-threatened Gil Vicente welcome Vitoria Guimaraes.
Vitoria have a mathematical chance of securing European football but it's a mammoth task. They need to close an 11-point gap on Porto in fourth with six games remaining.
Yet they can at least apply a bit of pressure with victory on Friday night.
Considering the contrasting styles, VITORIA TO TAKE THE MOST CORNERS provides appeal at 4/5.
Gil Vicente have actually 'won' the corner count across their last few home games but the visitors average the most crosses per game by far among teams in Portugal's top-flight.
Vitoria have taken the most corners in 11 of their last 12 on the road too. Only Benfica (96) have seen more corners awarded in their favour in away games among the 18 teams (Vitoria sit on 85).
While the game state may not be favourable in that the visitors will likely hold a lead, they've shown repeatedly their ability to make this a winner.
Odds correct at 1625 BST (10/04/25) unless otherwise stated
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