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Tom Carnduff's tips: Best bets in Premier League, Bundesliga, EFL for September 20-22
- Tom Carnduff 24/25 - Staked: 41.5pts | Returned: 34.55pts | P/L: -6.95pts | ROI: -17%
Football betting tips: Premier League, EFL, Bundesliga
Sunday (Scroll down for Saturday's picks)
0.75pt Nikola Milenkovic to score first in Brighton vs Nottingham Forest (14:00) at 50/1 (bet365, Sky Bet)
0.75pt Nikola Milenkovic to score anytime in Brighton vs Nottingham Forest (14:00) at 20/1 (bet365)
No matter which league you regularly follow, you'll do well to avoid the talk of Sunday's Premier League clash between Manchester City and Arsenal.
A potential title decider, a meeting of the two leading sides in English football, the game of all games. These may well be the angles that are thrown in your face in the build-up to kick-off.
The truth of it though is that it's very likely to be a poor game of football. It may be Christmas Day for tactical nerds but for those of us who watch football for the enjoyment of watching football (remember that?!) it's not going to be great.
Two over-coached sides who are terrified of losing will likely cancel each other out and nothing will happen. The meeting in March was one of the most boring games I've ever seen.
It should come as no surprise at this point then that I reveal the game will not be featuring in the column. Instead, I've targeted five from across three leagues which present relatively attractive betting angles.
Brighton vs Nottingham Forest
- Kick-off time: 14:00 BST, Sunday
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Home 3/4 | Draw 13/5 | Away 7/2
Two sides who have started the season in good form - both Brighton and Nottingham Forest are unbeaten across their first four league games.
They meet at the Amex in a game which could become a lot closer than the odds suggest. As covered in the latest edition of the Notebook, Forest's defensive showings have been really impressive.
It may be a case of them looking to frustrate a fluid Brighton attack and wait for their chance on the counter attack. After all, no side has taken more shots following a 'fast break' than Forest (9) in the Premier League so far.
They've also looked good from attacking set-piece situations, which makes me want to get involved in NIKOLA MILENKOVIC's goalscorer prices on Sunday.
- CLICK HERE to back Nikola Milenkovic to score first with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Nikola Milenkovic to score anytime with Sky Bet
The centre-back has been really impressive across his first few games at the club. Standing at 6ft 5', he's brought some much needed aerial presence to the Forest defence.
The trip to Southampton saw him return a total of three shots with the visitors taking a total of 23 that day. Different attacking styles but an interesting thing to keep in mind considering how both the Saints and Brighton like to dominate possession.
Brighton haven't been overly troubled from set-pieces but then they've not conceded many corners. Game state is a massive factor in corner betting though and Forest have the potential for a few as they look to break forward with pace.
Bookmakers go above even money that he has a shot in the game, that doesn't even have to be on target, but the goalscorer prices (50/1 first and 20/1 anytime) are far more appealing to me.
Saturday's selections
2pts Lincoln to beat Wigan (12:30) at 19/20 (General)
1pt Over 3.5 goals in Heidenheim vs Freiburg (14:30) at 7/4 (bet365)
1pt Wilfred Ndidi to score anytime in Leicester vs Everton (15:00) at 8/1 (bet365)
Lincoln vs Wigan
- Kick-off time: 12:30 BST, Saturday
- TV: Sky Sports+
- Home 10/11 | Draw 11/5 | Away 11/4
Wigan threw up one of the surprise results of the weekend as they hit four past Bristol Rovers in victory. They were 11/5 outsiders at kick-off too.
It's a tougher test this time around though with a trip to Lincoln in one of Saturday's early kick-offs. Michael Skubala's side have picked up where they left off from last season.
Three victories from their opening five can become four from six with 19/20 available with multiple bookmakers on a LINCOLN WIN.
The Imps suffered just two defeats from their final 20 games last season. Both of those came in the last four, and while one may have been this fixture, it's probably key to understand the difficulty of maintaining such a long run.
That lengthy run included a 6-0 hammering of Cambridge and a 5-0 win over Bristol Rovers in two of the home games. They'd boast 11 clean sheets in those 20 games too.
In short, they were brilliant, particularly at home. While Barnsley may have secured a surprise win at Sincil Bank the other week, the 4-1 thrashing of Mansfield a week later suggests that was a one-off outcome.
Heidenheim vs Freiburg
- Kick-off time: 14:30 BST, Saturday
- Home 13/8 | Draw 5/2 | Away 29/20
Saturday gives us an intriguing battle from the Bundesliga with Europa Conference League outfit Heidenheim hosting Freiburg.
Both have started the season in positive fashion but Freiburg's defence has been impressive and somewhat unlucky to have conceded as many as they have.
Naturally then, I'll take OVER 3.5 GOALS at a price of 7/4.
Goals have been a feature of Heidenheim's season so far. They were beaten by Borussia Dortmund 4-2 in their last game with a 4-0 victory over Augsburg in the previous home contest.
This has been a winning selection in four of their six games across all competitions so far - five of those games have ended in wins.
Freiburg's attack has been creative and firing too. They found the net twice against Bochum last time out with three coming against Stuttgart in late August.
It's a good match-up. This fixture finished 3-2 last season with a 1-1 draw when playing at Freiburg in May, although that should have been more based on the chances seen that day.
Leicester vs Everton
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 7/5 | Draw 23/10 | Away 9/5
It's never nice to be facing a must-win game in the middle of September, but Leicester and Everton meet knowing how important three points, or the lack of, will be on the course of their season.
Sean Dyche's visitors have managed to throw away two-goal leads to lose in each of their last two Premier League outings. Leicester, at least, have a couple of points on their tally.
I'm steering well clear of the result in this game because it's too tough to call. Instead, the appeal comes in the 8/1 best price for WILFRED NDIDI TO SCORE ANYTIME.
Ndidi has seen an adjusted role in this Leicester midfield in recent weeks. Oliver Skipp's arrival has placed him alongside Harry Winks in the defensive areas, pushing the Nigeria international more advanced.
That's led to an impressive return of three assists across his last two games. He's certainly a name to consider in that market but the attacking role opens up more possibilities at a bigger price to score.
Ndidi has never been a prolific scorer but then he's spent the large majority of his career operating as a defensive player.
He's played less than a handful of games as an out-and-out attacking midfielder yet he scored when featuring in this role in the Carabao Cup win over Burton last season.
The performance against Palace last time out should mean he keeps the same spot in the starting XI this time around. Considering the opponent, Leicester and Ndidi should see chances to strike.
Friday's selections
1pt Elvis Rexhbecaj to score anytime in Augsburg vs Mainz (19:30) at 6/1 (bet365)
Augsburg vs Mainz
- Kick-off time: 19:30 BST, Friday
- TV: Sky Sports Mix
- Home 11/8 | Draw 5/2 | Away 7/4
It may not look like it from the name of the two teams involved but Friday night's offering in the Bundesliga has the potential to be really entertaining.
As is the case with most contests in Germany, the over 2.5 goals odds sit around the 4/6 mark. In fairness, it has landed in five of the six games involving these two so far this season - Mainz's 1-1 draw against Union Berlin the one to fall short.
I fancied Mainz for a solid season but the lack of available markets stopped them having any involvement in my outright picks. They currently sit 15th but we have to remember there are still 31 games to play.
Rather than take the short price on the goals line, I'm intrigued by the 6/1 available on ELVIS REXHBECAJ TO SCORE ANYTIME.
Rexhbecaj is a regular in the Augsburg midfield - he's played every minute of their league season so far and found the net in the draw with Werder Bremen on opening weekend.
Fredrik Jensen missed last week's win over St. Pauli due to illness and that saw Rexhbecaj operating in a slightly more advanced position. Given the outcome, there's every chance Jess Thorup sticks with an unchanged set-up.
Even if he does return to his usual role, the Kosovo international ranked fourth for shots taken among Augsburg players in the games he started following Thorup's arrival last season.
He had three shots against St. Pauli - one of those on target - and he should see further opportunities to strike on Friday.
Odds correct at 0930 BST (19/09/24)
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