Football betting tips: LaLiga, Serie A, EFL, Premier League, Bundesliga
Sunday
1.25pts Over 2.5 goals in Athletic Club vs Villarreal (15:15) at 20/23 (Betfair)
I'm not entirely sure if the midweek round of fixtures have helped or not when it comes to delivering the weekend picks.
The Premier League had a full set to go at while League One and League Two played catch-up following the FA Cup second round.
I usually start making picks early in the week, but the additional games have made me revisit a couple. In some cases, a poor result was needed in order to boost the odds a little bit - that delivered.
It's pretty much the usual offering across the leagues this weekend. As ever, I've not restricted myself to the English leagues in order to find some selections.
Team news plays a part in a couple, while others are looking to make the most of managerial changes. 'New Manager Bounce'? Nah, not here.
Athletic Club vs Villarreal
- Kick-off time: 15:15 GMT, Sunday
- TV: LaLiga TV
- Home 10/11 | Draw 5/2 | Away 11/4
Sunday takes us back to Spain and a meeting between two of the strongest attacks in LaLiga.
Athletic Club - hey, look at me avoiding the name Athletic Bilbao - welcome Villarreal with both sides sitting in the top five of the 'goals for' column.
Villarreal's 23 goals conceded in the sixth-highest though and their games usually deliver entertainment at both ends.
At 20/23, the appeal comes in OVER 2.5 GOALS here.
Backing this selection has been a winner in 11 of Villarreal's 14 league games so far - that includes the last four outings.
The 3.6 goals per game average is also the second-highest in the division, and while Athletic sit on a lower 2.4 figure, they've seen three or more scored in each of their previous two.
Both teams have scored in 11 of their 16 though so it's come close even when it hasn't won. Given the attacking quality on offer, I'll side with the overs line.
Odds correct at 1040 GMT (06/12/24)
Genoa vs Torino
- Kick-off time: 14:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 29/20 | Draw 2/1 | Away 2/1
A rare trip over to Italy for a game which caught my eye on Saturday's list - I will admit I'll be in a small group of people who feel the same way.
Genoa host Torino with both teams floating around mid-table in Serie A. The visitors have been on a poor run of form with just one point gained from their last 15, although they did have a tough fixture list.
The hosts have problems in defence with Johan Vásquez out through suspension after picking up his fifth yellow card of the campaign in the win over Udinese, while centre-back partner Mattia Bani was forced off with injury in the same contest.
ALESSANDRO VOGLIACCO should come into the back line, making the 20/1 available on him to score anytime worth investigating.
Torino have had problems this season and one of the biggest has been their set-piece defending. Only Lecce (5.50) have conceded a higher expected goals (xG) tally from corners and free-kicks than Saturday's visitors (5.11).
In Genoa, they take on a side who have returned the second-highest total of shots after a set-piece is taken in Italy's top-flight this season.
Vogliacco has featured in 11 Serie A games this season and found the net in two of them. Shots have come in five of his seven starts.
His goal against Inter had some fortune with the ball bouncing back off the crossbar but he was the quickest to react to slide in from close range.
The one against Como was an equaliser in second-half added time. A flick-on header from a corner fell into the path of Vogliacco who smashed home on the half-volley.
What's interesting with both of these goals is his starting position when the set-piece is taken. Operating centrally, he's in a good position for either the direct contact or the second phase of a ball played into the box.
Genoa should get chances to strike and Vogliacco is a name to take in this market given the price.
Millwall vs Coventry
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 29/20 | Draw 21/10 | Away 19/10
Frank Lampard's Coventry City™️ needed a late penalty to snatch a point against struggling Cardiff in their new saviour's first game at the helm.
It was a decent enough attacking performance but that was expected. They also found themselves behind on two occasions and needed to get back into the contest.
A point is better than nothing but plenty of work still needs to happen as they travel to Millwall. The 8/5 on a HOME WIN will be featuring in my Saturday selections.
Neil Harris has returned this Millwall side to what can be seen as 'typical Millwall'. It's not the physical, brute force football some may expect but the Den has become an incredibly tough place for visiting teams.
They're unbeaten in their last nine games now, four of which have been wins. At home, they are unbeaten in six, again, four of those ending in victory.
Harris' men boast one of the best defences in the division according to the underlying numbers as they sit third for lowest expected goals against (xGA) allowed - only Burnley and Leeds are better.
In attack, they're sixth on the xG. The points they've gained have been deserved and serious consideration must be given when a price like this is available on a home contest.
There remains the uncertainty of a team with a new manager and Lampard's Coventry may well come good. The odds though are generous based on Millwall's home showings.
Swindon vs Fleetwood
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 7/4 | Draw 23/10 | Away 5/4
It's all going wrong for Swindon.
The club sit bottom of the Sky Bet League Two table with just two wins on their tally in 13 games.
The appointment of Ian Holloway has done very little, to nobody's surprise really, and they are conceding plenty. That is hardly ideal against a Fleetwood side who have, at times, shown their quality in attack this season.
A price of 9/2 is available on FLEETWOOD TO SCORE 3+ GOALS, with the 4/1 elsewhere also fine to take.
The Robins have played five league games since Holloway was given the job. They've conceded in all five, with four of them seeing the opposition scoring at least twice.
Colchester hit four past them in midweek with Morecambe scoring three in their last home contest. Accrington scored twice and MK Dons hit three in the other games to have taken place in November.
Fleetwood may have been beaten 4-2 by Doncaster in midweek but they did score twice. The last away league contest against Newport ended 0-0 and yet Charlie Adam's side created chances worth a considerable 2.02 xG.
From November 1 onwards, Swindon have averaged the fifth-highest expected goals against (xGA) figure in England's fourth tier. In terms of number of goals conceded, they are first.
Rather than take the away side at a price closer to even money, I'll back them to find the net on a few occasions.
Manchester United vs Nottingham Forest
- Kick-off time: 17:30 GMT, Saturday
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Home 8/13 | Draw 29/10 | Away 4/1
The Ruben Amorim honeymoon period at Manchester United was brought to an end by Arsenal on Wednesday night - a one-sided contest which ended in a fair outcome.
It marked his first defeat in four games at the helm since switching Sporting for the Old Trafford dugout. They'll be looking to bounce back against a Nottingham Forest side beaten in three of their last four.
I'm staying clear of the results market though and instead siding with FOREST MOST CORNERS at 3/1 with multiple bookmakers.
United were a low corner team anyway but the figure has decreased under Amorim's guidance.
The most corners they've taken across the four games was the three which came against Ipswich. They followed it up with two in each of the encounters with Bodo/Glimt and Everton and saw none against Arsenal.
It's always a risk siding with an outsider in this market because it could go wrong and there is also still the uncertainty of what United become under their new manager.
But the price is big enough to tempt me in. There's also the likely game state of Forest trailing and looking for a way back in - a huge helper when it comes to corner betting.
It's also a positive that Forest look to use their width. A total of 44% of their attacks going down their left side in the most of any side in the Premier League.
Given recent track record, I'm not sure if the hosts should be as short as 2/5 to take more corners.
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund
- Kick-off time: 17:30 GMT, Saturday
- TV: Sky Sports Football
- Home 21/10 | Draw 14/5 | Away 21/20
An intriguing one from Germany's late offering on Saturday as Borussia Mönchengladbach welcome a Borussia Dortmund side who struggle on the road.
Dortmund are the best home side in the division at this point - six wins and a draw from their seven - yet away it's a draw and four defeats.
Mönchengladbach are a decent bet at around 2/1 then with their own home form delivering four wins and two losses. Instead, I'll take the same price on OVER 11.5 CORNERS.
The reason for this is a nice combination of style and likely game state. Dortmund's issues with gaining points elsewhere should mean they're chasing the game at points.
And they face a Mönchengladbach side who like to use their width. They sit in the bottom half of the table for attacks created through the middle of the pitch.
They're sixth for crosses attempted so it's no big surprise to see they've taken at least five corners in four of their last five across all competitions.
Inevitably, some of the crosses will be deflected behind and they've only completed 28% of those attempts.
The match-up is always key when it comes to this betting market and I think we have a nice one on Saturday evening.
Odds correct at 1130 GMT (06/12/24)
Already advised
Friday
1pt Over 2.5 goals in Celta Vigo vs Mallorca (20:00) at 6/4 (General)
Celta Vigo vs Mallorca
- Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Friday
- TV: LaLiga TV
- Home 5/6 | Draw 9/4 | Away 18/5
I've started to enjoy focusing on the goals in LaLiga.
Spain's top-flight offers higher odds than usual on games seeing three or more. Across 148 matches this season, it's been a winner in 49% of them.
Friday night sees a meeting between two sides who have been strong enough in attack. Celta Vigo sit fifth for goals scored, Mallorca in 10th.
The underlying data supports this so it's not as if either are in a false position. The hosts also come into this contest on the back of a 7-0 thrashing of Salamanca in the cup - although it's worth pointing out they're a fourth-tier outfit.
I'll take the 6/4 general price on OVER 2.5 GOALS here.
Taking this pick has been a winner in 11 of Celta's 15 games so far, while it's won in four of Mallorca's seven on the road.
It's not particularly one-sided in the above too. The hosts boast a strong attack and yet hold a -4 goal difference - games against those in the top-seven have seen action at both ends.
Five of the six delivered three or more goals with the only one falling short being the 1-0 loss to Atletico Madrid. Even then, they created chances worth 1.53 xG.
Celta's style plays a big part in the reasoning for this selection. The form has been there in terms of it being a winner - the 6/4 looks very appealing.
Already advised
Saturday
0.75pt Alessandro Vogliacco to score anytime in Genoa vs Torino (14:00) at 20/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Millwall to beat Coventry (15:00) at 8/5 (William Hill)
1pt Fleetwood to score 3+ goals vs Swindon (15:00) at 9/2 (Betfair)
2pts Over 11.5 corners in Mönchengladbach vs Dortmund (17:30) at 2/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Nottingham Forest most corners vs Manchester United (17:30) at 3/1 (General)
Odds correct at 1420 GMT (05/12/24) unless otherwise stated
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