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Tom Carnduff's tips: Best bets in LaLiga 2, League One, Nations League for October 11-12
Football betting tips: LaLiga 2, League Two, Nations League
Friday
1pt Zaragoza to score 3+ goals vs Tenerife (19:30) at 11/1 (General)
Saturday
1pt Kieran Green to score anytime in Salford vs Grimsby (15:00) at 15/2 (bet365)
0.5pt Kieran Green to score 2+ goals in Salford vs Grimsby (15:00) at 100/1 (bet365)
2pts Over 2.5 goals in Serbia vs Switzerland (19:45) at 6/5 (General)
1pt António Silva to score anytime in Poland vs Portugal (19:45) at 12/1 (General)
The October international break is probably the trickiest one to navigate.
Not only do we lose top leagues from around Europe, but the increasing number of games postponed in the Sky Bet EFL makes betting tricky. You can then add in FA Cup qualification taking away the National League.
It shouldn't come as a surprise then that this column is shorter than usual, with one game on Friday and two across Saturday in focus.
As ever, I'd encourage you to check out the latest episode of This Week's Acca as we build an accumulator for Saturday's action - more games are discussed in detail there.
Anyway, here are four games to consider.
Tenerife vs Real Zaragoza
- Kick-off time: 19:30 BST, Friday
- TV: Premier Sports 2
- Home 11/8 | Draw 9/5 | Away 2/1
Once again, the Premier Sports subscription I have to watch the NHL is coming to the fore in an international break.
That has given me access to watching Spanish football of which I've done plenty over the past season or two. It's good that they opt to show LaLiga 2 games when no LaLiga is on offer.
Bottom club Tenerife host Zaragoza in Friday night's contest with the visitors sitting around the play-off positions. I'm going to take the 11/1 on ZARAGOZA TO SCORE 3+ GOALS, with the smallest price of 9/1 currently showing on Oddschecker also fine.
Across their final six games last season, Zaragoza scored seven goals from 9.50 xG, returning an average of 1.59 xG every game. This season has seen an average of 1.24 xG per game, but that significantly jumps up to an average of 1.84 xG in their three games against those currently 13th or below - all of which were wins with two of those seeing them score at least three.
Zaragoza were handed a tough start with five contests against those eighth or above already. That delivered a sole win in the home contest with Levante, but we can draw confidence from performances against the early strugglers.
Young striker Samed Bazdar is away in the Serbia under-21s set-up, and they may be dealing with some defensive suspensions, but this attack has more than enough to kick off the weekend in the best possible fashion.
Salford vs Grimsby
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- TV: Sky Sports+
- Home 23/20 | Draw 23/10 | Away 19/10
Grimsby are probably a value bet to win this game given their unpredictable nature under Dave Artell.
A run of three wins was ended by Doncaster last weekend but the confidence will be there as they travel to Salford on Saturday.
Artell isn't afraid to make constant adjustments in the quest for points, and the form of KIERAN GREEN makes him an appealing play TO SCORE ANYTIME at 15/2 - anything 6/1 or higher is fine. I'll also have the 100/1 for 2+ GOALS to take inspiration from Jimmy's Punt.
- CLICK HERE to back Kieran Green to score anytime with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Kieran Green to score 2+ goals with Sky Bet
The midfielder has found the net in two of his last four games. Each of his last eight league outings have also delivered at least one shot.
In terms of the underlying data, Green leads the way among all Grimsby players for expected goals (xG) while his 14 total shots is second to Charles Vernam.
The Mariners' numbers may not be as strong as others but the start of this campaign has already delivered away trips to Carlisle, Chesterfield, Gillingham and Notts County - they did well to emerge with six points from those.
Salford are a weak side in this division, particularly in attack, which should favour the away side. The price for victory is appealing enough, but as this is an Acca selection, I'll side with Green to strike.
Serbia vs Switzerland
- Kick-off time: 19:45 BST, Saturday
- Home 29/20 | Draw 2/1 | Away 17/10
Two sides who need a win if they want to kick away from relegation trouble in the Nations League, Serbia meet Switzerland with both winless across their opening two games.
A home victory creates a four-point gap over Switzerland at the bottom of Group 4 - a comfortable enough position with three games remaining after that.
Odds-against prices are available across the board on OVER 2.5 GOALS which is worth backing.
Serbia failed to score in games against Denmark and Spain in the September international break, but they are boosted by the return of prolific forward Aleksandar Mitrović this time around.
🇷🇸 Селектор репрезентације Србије Драган Стојковић, заједно са својим сарадницима из стручног штаба, одржао је у уторак увече у Спортском центру ФСС састанак са играчима и урадио детаљну видео-анализу наредног противника у Лиги нација, репрезентације Швајцарске.
— Fudbalski savez Srbije | FA of Serbia (@FSSrbije) October 8, 2024
Поред анализе… pic.twitter.com/aeS1j1uOxI
They were low scorers at the Euros, with an approach focused on control instead of the chaotic, attack-minded football that we've seen in the past.
But Switzerland's own expansive style should create a game that is quite open. The 2022 World Cup meeting between the pair ended in a 3-2 thriller to the Swiss.
Four of their five games at the summer tournament saw both teams finding the net, and they are now in a period of slight transition after the influential duo of Xherdan Shaqiri and Yann Sommer announced their retirement following the quarter-final exit.
Keep an eye on Serbia's Andrija Maksimovic in this international break by the way and his potential goal involvement. The 17-year-old is now featuring for Red Star Belgrade following a successful dual registration spell with Grafičar Beograd in the second tier.
Poland vs Portugal
- Kick-off time: 19:45 BST, Saturday
- Home 29/20 | Draw 2/1 | Away 17/10
I'm going back to something I spotted during my pre-Euro 2024 research; Poland are rubbish at defending set-pieces.
Apologies for not following every minute of the Poland national team but they've already conceded from a set-piece situation in this edition of the Nations League.
Croatia centre-back Duje Caleta-Car returned two shots in Poland's last outing while Scotland's Grant Hanley also saw an effort in the same international break.
At 12/1, I'll side with ANTÓNIO SILVA TO SCORE ANYTIME in a game Portugal are expected to win.
The defender posted two shots in their win over Scotland last time out and he should be partnership Ruben Dias in the back line once again.
His domestic form has been good too, with a goal and three shots across his first five games for Benfica in Portugal's top-flight this season.
With Portugal taking 19 corners across their two Nations League games so far, I'll side with Silva making the most of a chance that falls his way.
Odds correct at 1600 BST (10/10/24)
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