Football betting tips: Bundesliga, Serie A, EFL, Premier League, Scottish Premiership
Sunday
1pt e.w. Connor Taylor to score first in Bristol Rovers vs Peterborough (15:00) at 66/1 (Sky Bet 1/3 1-99)
General
2.5pts Ivan Juric to be the next Premier League manager to leave at 10/1 (Sky Bet)
Did we all have fun putting together two 18-fold accas that were never going to win?
When the Champions League and Europa League draws were made and the new format was fully unveiled to the world, this past week immediately caught the eye.
All teams playing their games at the same times on the same day, with the top competition taking place on Wednesday and the Europa playing out to a league conclusion on Thursday.
It doesn't feel like the novelty will wear off in years to come either - Wednesday was a thriller.
Unfortunately, we crash back down to Earth with the standard weekend schedule. The boring, same old tradition. Give me 18 televised games all at once immediately; I'm hooked.
The column continues in the usual format with games in focus from Friday through to Sunday.
Bristol Rovers vs Peterborough
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Sunday
- TV: Sky Sports+
- Home 9/5 | Draw 12/5 | Away 6/5
A meeting between two sides who are battling to avoid the drop, and it's one which could carry extra significance depending on Saturday's results.
Bristol Rovers head into the weekend sat 19th in the Sky Bet League One table, just two points behind Sunday's opponents Peterborough who are one spot above.
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You could make strong cases for all three outcomes in the match markets but I am interested in the potential set-piece mismatch of this contest.
In what could be a close game decided by one moment, I'm happy to take an each-way play on CONNOR TAYLOR TO SCORE FIRST at 66/1.
What has been interesting to see is the quality of chances created by Bristol Rovers from set-pieces increasing under Iñigo Calderón, even if the volume of efforts has done the opposite.
They're averaging 0.32 expected goals (xG) per 90 from corners and free-kicks in the six games following the managerial change; up from the 0.22 average before.
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And that's despite the shots figure decreasing from 1.14 to 0.33. However, the big chances created figure has over trebled from 0.05 to 0.17.
Taylor's returned five shots in those six games and four of those have been across the last two. Given what they've been producing recently though, he may only need one.
No side has conceded more goals from set-pieces in England's third tier than this Posh side. I'll back those issues to continue on Sunday.
Heidenheim vs Dortmund
- Kick-off time: 14:30 GMT, Saturday
- Home 16/5 | Draw 29/10 | Away 8/11
Borussia Dortmund's disastrous season had some respite in midweek with victory over Shakhtar Donetsk in the Champions League seeing them just miss out on automatic qualification but securing a seeded spot in the play-offs.
It meant they avoided a potential meeting with Manchester City and that game was followed by the news of Niko Kovac's appointment as head coach on an 18-month contract.
It's a constant cycle of short-sightedness where the priority is always about securing a top four finish above all. It doesn't matter how they achieve that.
Kovac takes charge on Sunday though which means interim Mike Tullberg will remain in charge for Saturday's trip to Heidenheim - a game where the 4/5 on a DORTMUND WIN looks interesting enough.
Throughout the course of the campaign I've been opposing Dortmund in any away game but that was under previous boss Nuri Sahin. He has, obviously, been sacked from the role.
🎙️ Tullberg:
— Borussia Dortmund (@BlackYellow) January 31, 2025
"I want to play football, I want to work with people. I'm really looking forward to the U19s. It's been fun. Tomorrow we want to give it our all and create the best possible starting position for Niko and his team."
The two games under Tullberg have been a 2-2 draw with Werder Bremen - where they threw away a two-goal advantage - and that comfortably European win mentioned above.
I have some confidence in their potential to win now Sahin has gone and Heidenheim's home form has been a cause for concern throughout the Bundesliga campaign.
They've won just two of the nine in front of their own supporters. Those were against Augsburg and Union Berlin and while Dortmund also find themselves in bottom half, it's fair to say they have far more potential to improve.
The 40 goals conceded by the hosts is the third-highest in Germany's top division and Dortmund possess an attack which can capitalise.
While there is still uncertainty, the general price on an away win is big enough to draw some interest.
Odds correct at 1110 GMT (31/01/25)
Hibernian vs Aberdeen
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 4/5 | Draw 11/4 | Away 3/1
It's been a long time since we were discussing Aberdeen as potential title hopefuls, whether or not we wanted to truly believe Celtic's dominance could be challenged.
Jimmy Thelin's side went unbeaten across their opening 11 games of the season, 10 of which were wins, before a remarkable 13-game winless run saw them slide down the table.
Hibernian will be full of confidence in their meeting on Saturday then - that's likely to be the case with most of the Dons' opponents.
This match-up also delivers us a set-piece mismatch. Hibs are the best team in Scotland's top-flight for quality of chances created from corners and free-kicks; Aberdeen the worst at defending them.
I'll be getting involved in the 16/1 on ROCKY BUSHIRI TO SCORE ANYTIME then.
The defender scored in their recent 3-3 draw with Rangers and also found the net in the November meeting between these two sides.
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Bushiri had two shots that day and caused Aberdeen plenty of problems. While he may not see a load of opportunities, the 1.96 expected goals (xG) figure shows they are good quality chances when they come.
And at 18s, I'll also take WARREN O'HORA ANYTIME too. He brings a significant aerial presence.
O'Hora also saw a shot in that previously mentioned contest against Aberdeen and it's one the Sporting Life shot map ranks as 'Great'.
His threat in the air is outlined in the fact he's won at least eight aerial duels in two of his last four full 90 minute league appearances for Hibs.
In a game the home side should win, their defenders can get in on the action.
Odds correct at 1545 GMT (31/01/25)
AFC Wimbledon vs Bradford
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 23/20 | Draw 2/1 | Away 11/5
A side who loses their star striker would usually struggle to either score or win matches. That doesn't seem to be the case with Bradford.
Andy Cook is sidelined and yet they're still flying. They've won all five games across all competitions since his injury in the 2-2 draw with Barrow on New Year's Day.
Confidence will be high, and it needs to be, when they travel to Wimbledon. They sit third in the home standings with eight wins from 13 in front of their own supporters.
A price of 5/2 is available on OVER 11.5 CORNERS which is eye-catching given the end-to-end potential of the contest, with the 2/1 and above elsewhere more than fine too.
The Bantams sit fourth for crosses attempted in League Two this season with Wimbledon in seventh. It's also a meeting of two teams who like to use their width.
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Wimbledon's 1-1 draw with Crewe last time out, another top seven side, delivered a total of 14 corners taken with the Dons taking five when welcoming now second-placed Doncaster last month.
The home encounter with league leaders Walsall had 13 so it appears to also be a case of the corner count going high in games against fellow promotion hopefuls.
Bradford have averaged 5.75 corners taken across their last four with at least four coming in each. Given the match-up, I'll take 12 or more at the prices.
Odds correct at 1015 GMT (31/01/25)
Premier League special...
- Last manager to leave: Sean Dyche (09/01/25)
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I mentioned this in the office on Friday morning and was subsequently told I should be including it on site, so here it is.
This may well be one that is settled over the weekend, who knows, but this is a theory based around transfer activity...or a lack of it.
I'm intrigued by the 10/1 available on IVAN JURIC TO BE THE NEXT PREMIER LEAGUE MANAGER TO LEAVE their position.
Ange Postecoglou is odds-on favourite in the market but we repeatedly hear that Tottenham are sticking by him as they deal with an injury crisis.
Next Premier League manager to leave odds (via Sky Bet)
- Ange Postecoglou - 1/2
- Ruud van Nistelrooy - 4/1
- No manager to leave - 7/1
- Ivan Juric - 10/1
- Vitor Pereira - 16/1
Spurs are also ahead in the two-legged Carabao Cup semi-final at the halfway point and managed to achieve automatic progression to the knockout stages of the Europa League.
They are battling for trophies and should they win the latter, they will secure a spot in next season's Champions League.
Ruud van Nistelrooy is an interesting one but I'm not sure if Leicester will get rid at this point, particularly after an away win at Spurs last time out.
Which takes us onto Juric, who has lost every single Premier League game in charge of Southampton since taking over during the Christmas period.
They've conceded three in each of their last four and there aren't many signs, if any, that things are going to improve on the pitch - that also applies to the transfer window.
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The Saints have welcomed three new players this month. One of those was left-back Welington who was rumoured to have signed a pre-contract anyway; another being youth defender Joachim Kayi Sanda.
This team needs so much more and yet it appears that they've accepted their fate. "No, I would say quiet," was Juric's response when asked about activity in the final days of the window.
Described as someone with a fierce personality and without fear of speaking directly, there's a feeling that perhaps it hasn't played out the way in which he would have hoped for when taking the job.
Unless something miraculous happens, you don't see Juric being at Southampton next season. This is a club with a focus on the future and a likely summer rebuild where they can get the head coach they want.
Is Juric actually gaining anything - football-wise - from being in this position? Or is he going to go down in history as one of the two people to have overseen one of, if not the, worst sides in Premier League history?
A weekend defeat to Ipswich and the window passing with next-to-no new players to work with may well force Juric into walking away.
Odds correct at 1155 GMT (31/01/25)
Already advised
Friday
1.5pts Over 2.5 goals in Parma vs Lecce (19:45) at 10/11 (Betfred, bet365)
1pt Over 10.5 corners in Werder Bremen vs Mainz (19:30) at 11/8 (General)
Saturday
2pts Dortmund to beat Heidenheim (14:30) at 4/5 (General)
1pt Rocky Bushiri to score anytime in Hibernian vs Aberdeen (15:00) at 16/1 (bet365)
1pt Warren O'Hora to score anytime in in Hibernian vs Aberdeen (15:00) at 18/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Over 11.5 corners in AFC Wimbledon vs Bradford (15:00) at 5/2 (BoyleSports)
Werder Bremen vs Mainz
- Kick-off time: 19:30 GMT, Friday
- TV: Sky Sports Mix
- Home 11/8 | Draw 12/5 | Away 9/5
An intriguing encounter between two European hopefuls to kick off the Bundesliga weekend.
Werder Bremen sit four points adrift of the top six. That finally spot is currently held by Mainz, who make the trip north on Friday evening.
This does have the feel of a contest which could go either way and that's made me avoid the match market. Instead, the factors at play make the 11/8 on OVER 10.5 CORNERS worth backing.
The style of play is a big thing here. Werder sit second for crosses attempted in the Bundesliga this season, and while Mainz may be down in eighth, only four sides have attacked through the middle on fewer occasions.
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It's partly why they have seen 11+ corners in 58% of their games - no team has a higher match average in Germany's top-flight.
And then there's the potential game state, which is key in corners betting. Mainz have been a solid away team throughout the course of the campaign and they often take the lead.
Six of their nine games on the road have seen them grab the first goal. Should they post a few corners before doing this, the chances increase with Bremen forced to try and find a way back in.
Given the importance of the game to both sides, it could become one which is end-to-end action.
Parma vs Lecce
- Kick-off time: 19:45 GMT, Friday
- Home 11/10 | Draw 12/5 | Away 23/10
Non-televised action from Italy on Friday night although we shouldn't be too fussed about missing out on it given the teams involved.
Parma, sat 16th, welcome 18th-placed Lecce in a battle between two relegation contenders - the hosts only ahead on (a significant) goal difference.
But this game does have some potential in the form of OVER 2.5 GOALS, which provides appeal to back at 10/11.
Parma's home games are usually entertaining to watch. Seven of their 11 have seen at least three or more scored with the overall figure standing at 14 from 22.
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While Lecce may be further down the 'standings' in this area, it's something which have improved since Marco Giampaolo appointment as head coach in mid-September.
Six of their ten under Giampaolo have hit the over 2.5 line; the same applies for games in which both teams have scored.
In their 12 games with previous boss Luca Gotti at the helm, three or more goals only arrived four times, while they failed to score in eight.
They've scored in four of five on the road with Giampaolo in charge. I'll back the goals to continue at the prices.
Odds correct at 1615 GMT (30/01/25) unless otherwise stated
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