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Tom Carnduff's tips: Best bets in Bundesliga, EFL, Premier League, Liga 1 for October 18-20
- Tom Carnduff's Weekend Tips: Staked = 55pts | Returned = 44.63pts | P/L = -9.37pts | ROI = -19%
Football betting tips: Bundesliga, EFL, Premier League, Liga 1, Ligue 1
1.5pts Over 2.5 goals in Dinamo Bucuresti vs FCSB (19:00) at 11/10 (General)
A trip into the second division of Spanish football delivered an 11/1 winner last week, restoring some confidence that backing the bigger-priced selections, with odds available to most across bookmakers, is the long-term profitable method.
The international break is over and I'm not going to do the "ooohhh how rubbish is that, boo, oh my god what do you mean another one?" sort of angle you get when it comes to it.
Boring isn't it? Just sitting around watching UEFA Nations League with your life. Not for me, I like it.
Top-level club football returns which sees this edition focus on the Premier League, Bundesliga and, of course, the Romanian Liga 1 but there are still tips made available in the second tier of German football and good ol' Sky Bet League One.
A good range of times too, taking you from Friday evening through to Sunday night. So, here we go.
Dinamo Bucuresti vs FCSB
- Kick-off time: 19:00 BST, Sunday
- TV: Live Streaming
- Home 29/10 | Draw 12/5 | Away Evens
Dinamo Bucuresti were a feature of this column a couple of weeks ago and it's fair to say they were not in my good books afterwards.
Holding a 2-0 lead against a Botosani side who don't travel well, they managed to find a way to draw 2-2 late on - the hosts also saw two goals disallowed.
I tried not to let it ruin my visit to the Oktoberfest event at Kirkstall Brewery in Leeds, at least.
They're a much bigger price this time around with near 3/1 available on success over an FCSB side who are now gaining results after a slow start - they're also enjoying the early stages of their Europa League campaign.
While Dinamo remain a strong home side in Romania's top-flight, the form of the visitors makes me reluctant to visit the match market. Instead, OVER 2.5 GOALS is a play worth making.
No side has scored more goals this season, with their 21 level with Cluj, although they have played a game more. Defensively, no side currently in the top nine has conceded more either.
It's not a huge surprise to see that four of their five games in front of their own supporters has seen at least three goals scored. Those contests also saw both teams find the net.
FCSB average the highest number of shots per 90 this season (16.3) and they should cause issues for this questionable Dinamo defence. With odds-against prices available, goals are the way to go.
Already advised:
1pt Linton Maina to score anytime in Darmstadt vs Köln (17:30) at 16/5 (General)
0.5pt Maina to score 2+ goals at 25/1 (General)
1pt Emre Can to score anytime in Dortmund vs St. Pauli (19:30) at 9/2 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
1pt Ryan Andrews to score anytime in Luton vs Watford (12:30) at 11/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Mansfield to score 2+ goals vs Stevenage (15:00) at 11/8 (William Hill)
1pt Leo Østigård to score anytime in Brest vs Rennes (16:00) at 14/1 (bet365)
1.5pts Bournemouth 5+ corners vs Arsenal (17:30) at 5/4 (BoyleSports)
1pt Sebastiaan Bornauw to score anytime in Wolfsburg vs Werder Bremen (16:30) at 20/1 (bet365)
0.5pt Bornauw to score first at 50/1 (bet365)
Darmstadt vs Köln
- Kick-off time: 17:30 BST, Friday
- TV: Sky Sports Football YouTube
- Home 14/5 | Draw 29/10 | Away 7/10
The Friday focus this week takes us to Germany and an earlier kick-off from the second division as Köln travel to Darmstadt.
The visitors' attack has been the eye-catching element of their game. Despite sitting seventh, no side can better their 20 goals scored so far. That should be a problem for a Darmstadt side who sit third bottom with 19 against - another league high.
Some bookmakers have gone as short as 1/2 that Köln find the net twice here. Going into the goalscorer markets opens up better value though.
The 16/5 for LINTON MAINA TO SCORE ANYTIME is certainly eye-catching, with the 5/2 and 11/4 elsewhere also fine prices. I'll also have a smaller-stakes play on the 25/1 that he SCORES 2+ GOALS.
- CLICK HERE to back Linton Maina to score anytime with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Linton Maina to score 2+ goals with Sky Bet
The left winger is a regular feature in this Köln side. That's led to four goals and five assists in nine games across all competitions.
𝑻𝒐𝒓 𝒅𝒆𝒔 𝑻𝒂𝒈𝒆𝒔: unser erstes Saisontor von Linton Maina 🤌 ⁰___⁰#effzeh | Das Tor des Tages wird präsentiert von der @kskkoeln pic.twitter.com/9LW5UPa5Wp
— 1. FC Köln (@fckoeln) August 8, 2024
He's also comfortable playing through the middle and that is largely down to boss Gerhard Struber fluctuating between a 4-2-2-2 system and 4-2-3-1. His efforts on goal have been consistent throughout though.
Maina has played the most minutes from Köln's attacking unit which is a big positive in terms of backing him to strike, alongside the good prices available.
Two of the three leagues goals so far have come in away games too. I'll side with Maina making it at least three from four here.
Borussia Dortmund vs St. Pauli
- Kick-off time: 19:30 BST, Friday
- TV: Sky Sports Mix
- Home 2/7 | Draw 19/4 | Away 8/1
The post-international break Bundesliga action takes us to a Dortmund side which have been so typically Dortmund in recent weeks.
A 7-1 hammering of Celtic in the Champions League was followed up with a 2-1 defeat to Union Berlin. Across their last five, they've won 3-0 and 4-2 but lost 5-1 at Stuttgart.
So they may be 2/7 to beat St. Pauli on Friday night but I do not like getting involved on match markets involving Dortmund. I try not to let history influence my present betting decisions but... I just know what they're like.
What I am happy to do though is side with EMRE CAN TO SCORE ANYTIME at a price of 9/2 based on his showings this season.
The midfielder has netted four in nine appearances across all competitions, and an important factor when it comes to goalscoring betting is that he has been their penalty taker.
Serhou Guirassy may also have involvement with them but Can's taken three of the last four, scoring all of them.
Penalties are a factor in this selection but he's shown his threat from open play too, having three shots on goal in their last home league game against Bochum.
Luton vs Watford
- Kick-off time: 12:30 BST, Saturday
- TV: Sky Sports+
- Home Evens | Draw 13/5 | Away 12/5
I have no idea why Oxford vs West Brom was given the main televised treatment over Luton vs Watford in the group of early kick-offs across the EFL on Saturday.
The local rivals meet at Kenilworth Road with the hosts way off their pre-season expectations, with Rob Edwards' side having just two wins from nine, losing five.
Watford are battling towards the top of the table but their leaky defence may cause problems in the long-term. Only five teams, one of which is Luton, have conceded goal more across the opening nine games of the Championship campaign.
When I originally began looking ahead to the weekend RYAN ANDREWS' price to SCORE ANYTIME was at 16/1 with multiple bookmakers. By Thursday morning he'd crashed into 9s in places. Annoying.
I'll settle for the 11/1 with Sky Bet. BetMGM, BetUK and Unibet go 15/1 (apparently) so back it with them if you can.
The right wing-back has two on his tally this season, coming in the away loss at Norwich a couple of weeks ago and the home win over Stoke in August.
His total of 13 shots is the third-most of any Watford player, with nobody able to better his six efforts on target. It's worth noting that two have also struck the woodwork.
Andrews is involved in advanced position when the Hornets attack and he's seen opportunities when lining up against other sides who operate with a back-three system.
The game against Preston delivered two shots despite coming on in the second half, with one in each of the contests with Coventry and Plymouth.
Mansfield vs Stevenage
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 5/4 | Draw 11/5 | Away 9/5
Mansfield were one of the best home sides in Sky Bet League Two last season and they've continued that following promotion to League One.
Nigel Clough's side sit third and have gone unbeaten across their first five games in front of their own supporters (three wins and two draws).
In Stevenage they face a side who have struggled away. Only Cambridge (0) and Reading (1) have picked up fewer points than their two on the road this season.
Those points came against Burton and Wigan too, so all signs point towards a home victory. Rather than take that, I'll squeeze out some extra value by backing MANSFIELD TO SCORE 2+ GOALS at 11/8.
Trips to Exeter, Huddersfield and Peterborough have all seen Stevenage conceding twice, with their otherwise impressive defensive record coming in home games or against the two sides mentioned previously.
Mansfield have been scoring, particularly against those further down the table. Five games against those 20th or below saw them score at least a couple.
Stevenage may sit 13th but that is a position gained by performances and results at home, it's simply not the same story away.
Brest vs Rennes
- Kick-off time: 16:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 9/5 | Draw 9/4 | Away 29/20
I'm adding this one in on Friday morning after initial publication, but only because I've accidentally stumbled across something while researching something else.
In looking ahead to next week's European action, I wasn't aware of Brest's set-piece issues when facing certain teams. It has been a problem all season.
When faced against teams lining up in a back-four, Brest seem comfortable in dealing with corners and free-kicks. For some reason, it's not the same against back-threes.
Games against Marseille, PSG, Salzburg, St. Etienne and Sturm Graz also saw opposition centre-backs fail to post a shot - those teams play with two centre-backs.
Yet games against Auxerre, Le Havre, Lens and Toulouse all saw at least two shots from centre-backs - those teams operating with three from the start. Le Havre saw two of the central defenders having two each with nine corners taken across the 90 minutes.
I'll settle on the 14/1 available for LEO ØSTIGÅRD TO SCORE ANYTIME then.
The Norwegian has already scored this season in the defeat to Reims with shots coming in two others of his five starts this season. He also won a huge seven aerial duels in their last game against Monaco.
Rennes have switched to a back-three system in recent weeks and should continue with it here. They'll know that free-kicks and corners may be a good route to goal.
Bournemouth vs Arsenal
- Kick-off time: 17:30 BST, Saturday
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Home 19/5 | Draw 29/10 | Away 4/6
The first seven games of the Premier League season have gone as you'd expect for both Bournemouth and Arsenal, with the Cherries floating around mid-table while Mikel Arteta's men in the title race.
It's no surprise to see Saturday's visitors odds-on for success. While Andoni Iraola did incredibly well during his debut campaign at the club, Bournemouth did struggle against those at the top.
But they look to operate in their usual way, especially in front of their own supporters.
This game is an occasion where you do get some value on BOURNEMOUTH CORNERS with odds-against prices available on 5+.
They were one of the leading takers in 23/24 and that's down to the style - an emphasis on attacking using width with driven crosses aiming to find attackers in the box.
Home games against the top-six of last season still delivered corners. This would have been a winning selection in four of those six home games (as would taking them for at least six).
Bournemouth have taken at least six corners in each of their three home games, but I'm happy enough going for a slightly lower line.
Wolfsburg vs Werder Bremen
- Kick-off time: 16:30 BST, Sunday
- TV: Sky Sports+
- Home 21/20 | Draw 5/2 | Away 23/10
I will admit that the Premier League offering at the same time on Sunday is a tempting one to watch but Wolfsburg's clash with Bremen has the potential to be a high scorer.
Both sides have been decent enough in attack but defensively they concede chances. Over 2.5 has been a winner in all three of Wolfsburg's home games; the same in three of Bremen's away.
I was surprised to see prices of 16/1 and above available on SEBASTIAAN BORNAUW TO SCORE ANYTIME in this game, with 50s also out there TO SCORE FIRST.
- CLICK HERE to back Sebastiaan Bornauw to score anytime with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Sebastiaan Bornauw to score first with Sky Bet
The Wolfsburg defender has already netted twice this season and his aerial presence creates problems at set-piece situations.
His goal against Holstein Kiel came from meeting a Maximilian Arnold free-kick while his effort against Leverkusen was another direct header, that time from a corner.
The campaign so far has delivered shots in four of his six league outings but the games which didn't were against Bayern and Stuttgart. In 23/24, he averaged a shot every other game.
Odds correct at 1230 BST (17/10/24)
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