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Tom Carnduff's tips: Best bets in Bundesliga, EFL, LaLiga and Ligue 1 for September 13-15
- Tom Carnduff's Weekend Tips - Staked: 26pts | Returned: 20.08pts | P/L: -5.92pts | ROI: -23%
Football betting tips: Bundesliga, La Liga and Sky Bet League One
Saturday
1pt Mattias Svanberg to score anytime in Wolfsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt (14:30) at 15/2 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
0.5pt Mattias Svanberg to score 2+ goals in Wolfsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt (14:30) at 100/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
1pt Reading to score 3+ goals vs Leyton Orient (15:00) at 7/2 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
2pts Real Madrid to score 2+ goals vs Real Sociedad (20:00) at 17/20 (General)
"How can we be having an international break already?" ask accounts desperate for interaction cash on social media. The shock of no top level domestic football arriving at such an early stage of the campaign hitting hard.
Obviously, these accounts which definitely aren't saying outlandish things for some clicks and quote tweets (see also "it's impossible to hate this very hateable footballer") must have forgotten it was the same last season.
It's been this way for a while. There's always multiple international breaks before Christmas and then one in March. Get over it.
Alright, rant over, and it's irrelevant now because the 'best' leagues have returned and we can forget all about it until we break again in October.
I don't actually know what else to say in this introduction section now, I think I've managed to sidetrack myself while typing. Something about going across Europe to find some best bets maybe? I dunno.
Anyway, I've gone across Europe to find some best bets and here they are.
Dortmund vs Heidenheim
- Kick-off time: 19:30 BST, Friday
- TV: Sky Sports Mix
- Home 1/3 | Draw 17/4 | Away 13/2
Heidenheim have enjoyed the perfect season so far. Two wins from two in the Bundesliga have sat alongside a successful Europa Conference League qualification campaign which will give them confidence ahead of their first real test.
Borussia Dortmund have been fine, but just fine. They're in another period of adjustment yet some results have at least followed - it's not exactly been the all-out attacking front foot style we've seen in previous years.
But we have to remember how early into the campaign we are. Signs are positive enough and there's still plenty of football to be played.
5⃣ Games, 5⃣ Wins – What a way to start this season! 😍
— 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 (@FCH1846) September 1, 2024
🔴🔵 #NurDerFCH #FCHFCA pic.twitter.com/w7tmIIss65
I've been targeting HEIDENHEIM CORNERS in the opening weeks of the season and I'm happy enough taking the general price of 2/1 on 5+ for the visitors here.
As stated previously, Frank Schmidt's side are strong at set-pieces. It's an area they look to target in order to score goals - it was a big reason behind their unexpected charge into the European places last season.
It's naturally tricky when you're travelling to a side expected to be in the top four fold again, but Heidenheim showed previously their ability to be competitive enough to force corners in away games at the better sides.
They hit this marker in this fixture last season while also achieving it at Stuttgart. As you'd expect, they fell short at Bayern and Leverkusen.
Play style is a factor as will be the likely game state - only three Bundesliga teams attacked through the middle fewer times than Heidenheim last season. The use of width can often lead to corners.
Saint-Étienne vs Lille
- Kick-off time: 19:45 BST, Friday
- Home 3/1 | Draw 5/2 | Away 17/20
A rare trip across to France for me - I mean in terms of the column because I don't mind it as a holiday destination - and Saint-Étienne's tricky start to the season is likely to continue as they host Lille.
They are yet to score and have created the lowest quality chances of all teams in France's top flight this season. A 4-0 hammering by Brest in their last encounter saw nine shots on target for their opponents with none posted in return.
Le Havre were comfortable winners before that, and it's worth taking the 19/20 available on LILLE TO SCORE 2+ GOALS here. The general price of 10/11 is also fine.
Lille's busy season has included qualification for the Champions League - which they achieved - and they've scored at least once in all seven outings so far.
Two goals came in each of the wins over Angers and Reims, while they found the net from 1.40 xG as they hosted PSG before the international break. Bruno Génésio's have demonstrated that they can attack.
Saint-Étienne unsurprisingly top the charts for expected goals against (xGA). They may have faced good opposition in Brest and Monaco but Lille's presence at the end of the table last season should deliver a similar threat.
They're also dealing with some injury issues and a number of players may not be available in time for Friday night.
You can take a similar price on an away victory, which is also worth consideration with the bookmakers who offer a 'two up' payout. Instead, I'll go for goals.
Wolfsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt
- Kick-off time: 14:30 BST, Saturday
- Home 13/8 | Draw 5/2 | Away 29/20
Wolfsburg's victory at Holstein Kiel before the international break was a deserved one - points on the board after being unfortunate in missing out on something against Bayern in their opener.
Ralph Hasenhüttl's side now face Eintracht Frankfurt in a contest that could go either way. The hosts are dealing with one significant injury issue though.
Lovro Majer is reported to be sidelined with an ankle ligaments injury picked up in Kiel last time out. He netted both goals against Bayern.
It does mean Hasenhüttl will have to shuffle the pack and that could see MATTIAS SVANBERG played in an advanced midfield role - that was the case in the second-half last time out following Majer's withdrawal.
You can get 15/2 on a GOAL ANYTIME which is worth a play in case he is featuring further forward.
The midfielder posted three shots against Kiel and yet two of those came after the break. Even then, he returned two efforts in the defeat to Bayern.
We have a player who likes to shoot anyway more than likely operating in an area that presents opportunities for more to be taken - Hasenhüttl encourages his midfield to contribute when they can.
It's 100/1 for 2+ GOALS, which again is a value play based on potential positional changes.
Jonas Wind could well come in as a more natural attacking option but the Wolfsburg boss may opt for more of the same which resulted in victory last time out.
Reading vs Leyton Orient
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home evens | Draw 23/10 | Away 9/4
I don't really look at the league tables at this early stage of the campaign but I'd have a good guess that Leyton Orient are currently bottom of Sky Bet League One.
Five games played, five defeats, and an attack which is failing to fire. They've created the least in terms of the underlying metrics of all 24 teams in the third division.
At the other end they've conceded eight. They're not in a great position travelling to a Reading side who have been good in front of their own supporters under Rubén Sellés.
It's around even money that the home side win and I'll be putting them in my weekend acca but I fancy taking the 7/2 on READING 3+ GOALS too given the showings of the away side.
Shrewsbury - a poor side in this division - hit three past Orient at the end of August while Birmingham and Bolton both netted twice in visits to Brisbane Road prior.
Reading's previous home game saw two scored in victory over a good Charlton outfit while they underachieved with two goals against Wigan based on the chances they created - the total expected goals (xG) for them that day being 2.86.
I'll side with the Royals getting the job done in style.
Real Sociedad vs Real Madrid
- Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Saturday
- TV: Premier Sports 1
- Home 15/4 | Draw 13/5 | Away 7/10
A Jude Bellingham-less Real Madrid travel to San Sebastián to face Real Sociedad in Saturday's late kick-off, but Carlo Ancelotti's side still possess more than enough quality to secure victory.
Both of their away games so far have finished with 1-1 draws, although victories to-nil in home contests has kept them on track at this early stage of the season.
Sociedad finished sixth last season but struggled against those who finished above them. In ten games against the teams fifth or higher, they won just once.
Five of the seven defeats were by 2+ GOAL margins, with the appeal there in taking REAL MADRID to score that tally at a near even money price.
They had little issue in achieving this target in 23/24. It was a winning selection in 11 of their 19 away outings, with Real scoring 2+ in 66% of their overall league contests.
Champions League action may return next week and some rotation may happen yet it didn't dramatically slow their scoring last season.
Ancelotti's men still struck at least twice in five of their first eight games directly prior to a Champions League game - a particularly encouraging sign when it isn't the 'serious' stage of the competition.
Despite the 1-1 draw at Las Palmas in their last away game - a huge point for the hosts - Real posted an xG tally of 2.95, with over 2.00 xG in each of their previous three games.
Sociedad, meanwhile, have conceded two in both of their previous home games against Deportivo Alaves and Rayo Vallecano.
Friday
1pt Heidenheim 5+ corners vs Dortmund (19:30) at 2/1 (General)
2pts Lille to score 2+ goals vs St. Etienne (19:45) at 19/20 (Coral)
Odds correct at 1625 BST (11/09/24)
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