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Tom Carnduff's tips: Best bets and predictions for Premier League, EFL and more
Football betting tips: EFL, Premier League, DFB-Pokal
2pts Manchester City to score 3+ goals vs Chelsea (16:30) at 19/10 (BetVictor)
Chelsea vs Manchester City
- Kick-off time: 16:30 BST, Sunday
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Home 29/10 | Draw 29/10 | Away 4/5
Manchester City's price has shortened a little bit but there is still some rare value available on Pep Guardiola's side to secure victory.
They travel to a Chelsea outfit whose transfer business remains without a clear strategy. Hoarding players across positions when their additions are simply not necessary.
The appointment of Enzo Maresca another example of their lack of direction.
Defensive efforts in pre-season were comical and if City are on it, as we've seen so many times before, they could be torn apart. It's worth siding with the visitors to enjoy plenty of success.
I'm not entirely sure what has been seen that makes Chelsea fourth in the market to finish in the top four with prices as short as 11/8 available on them securing Champions League football once again.
They were finally onto a good thing under Mauricio Pochettino. They'd lost just one of their final 15 league games before finishing sixth. Of course though, this is Chelsea, where continuity and stability are dirty words.
The 19/10 price on CITY TO SCORE 3+ GOALS is particularly appealing.
Guardiola's men scored three or more in ten of their 19 away league contests last season - with four coming in the 4-4 thriller at Stamford Bridge.
City have been the opposite of Chelsea in the market. Savinho from Troyes their only new arrival with ten leaving permanently and a further seven heading out on loan deals.
And yet they remain remarkably strong across the board. It's an attacking unit which boasts top line strength and depth beyond it.
I am totally unconvinced in this Chelsea defence but at least they have quality and a basic system which should deliver goals. I'll have near 2/1 on the best side in the country punishing them throughout.
BuildABet @ 27/1
- Bernardo Silva to score anytime
- Manchester City to score 3+ goals
- Malo Gusto to be shown a card
Already advised:
1pt Bayern Munich to score 4+ goals vs Ulm (19:45) at 11/8 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
1.5pts Derby 6+ corners vs Middlesbrough (12:30) at 6/4 (bet365)
1pt Junior Tchamadeu to score anytime in Watford vs Stoke (15:00) at 20/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Eoin Toal to score anytime in Bolton vs Wrexham (15:00) at 11/1 (Sky Bet)
I enjoyed the opening weekend of the Sky Bet EFL season, I'd also include the first round of the Carabao Cup fixtures in midweek too.
The first match-focused edition of this column targeted goalscorers who looked a generous price to strike based on pre-season showings - it paid off with +5pts profit returned.
Pascal Struijk was backed at 8/1 given Leeds' desire to improve from set-pieces and his potential as a penalty taker. He scored the spot kick which gave them the lead in the 3-3 thriller with Portsmouth.
This edition will look to lean into some of the things we saw last weekend, while also trying to capitalise on the pre-season switches from the Premier League, which returns on Friday night.
I'll also post any other stats/bets I find interesting after initial publication - feel free to follow me @TomCarnduff.
Ulm vs Bayern Munich
- Kick-off time: 19:45 BST, Friday
- TV: Premier Sports 2
- Home 18/1 | Draw 8/1 | Away 1/16
A quick one on this game.
The Bundesliga returns next weekend but DFB-Pokal (the cup) action takes place over the next few days, with Vincent Kompany making his competitive Bayern start away at a side recently promoted into the second division.
Ulm's return to life in Bundesliga II has delivered two defeats from two with Kaiserslautern and Jahn Regensburg - a side who came up with them from the third tier - the successful opposition so far.
Not a bad way to score your first goal👌🚀
— FC Bayern (@FCBayernEN) August 13, 2024
Take a bow, João Palhinha! 🇵🇹#MiaSanMia #FCBWSG pic.twitter.com/rn6rGom2Uv
You can get odds-against prices across the board on BAYERN TO SCORE 4+ GOALS which is worth backing given the expected mismatch.
We can question how Kompany will get on in charge of Germany's biggest club but there's enough quality, and especially goals, within this team to capitalise on one from the division below.
Ulm's successful third tier campaign did also deliver defeats to Dynamo Dresden, Preußen Münster and the aforementioned Jahn Regensburg - three sides who sat below them in the top four - with Ingolstadt winning 4-0 when going well at the beginning of that season.
Expect their usual 3-4-3 to look a bit more like a back five for the majority of the contest.
Derby vs Middlesbrough
- Kick-off time: 12:30 BST, Saturday
- TV: Sky Sports+
- Home 23/10 | Draw 5/2 | Away 21/20
I sort of covered this game in the latest edition of the Notebook if you want to check that out, but the angle highlighted there opens up some value in the betting.
Derby are outsiders again here, and there are already some slight concerns about how they'll adjust to life back in the second tier based on their defensive showing in the 4-2 defeat to Blackburn.
It is only one game, of course, so plenty can change. What they did demonstrate in that game was a preference to attack out wide and that saw the ball deflected behind plenty of times.
The 6/4 on DERBY 6+ CORNERS therefore provides appeal.
Across the two rounds of fixtures played so far - if we include the Carabao Cup (which we will as it suits the argument) - only Rotherham (59) have attempted more crosses than Derby (58) among all 72 teams EFL side.
This is just a lovely header isn’t it pic.twitter.com/0BE80XaL5D
— Tom Carnduff (@TomCarnduff) August 9, 2024
They sit third in terms of the quality of chances from set-pieces, with the 16 corners they've had bettered by only five teams.
Game state is a factor in corner betting but Derby's style plays a big part. They may also target them given how strong they are from dead-ball situations.
There's a good chance Middlesbrough are ahead at some point in this contest, which will only enhance Derby's chances of running up their corner count.
Watford vs Stoke
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 6/4 | Draw 23/10 | Away 17/10
Onto another angle highlighted in the Notebook, and that being the advanced Stoke full-backs in their win over Coventry on opening weekend.
In possession, Steven Schumacher liked to have full-backs on both sides push forward and join the attack. That saw JUNIOR TCHAMADEU hit the crossbar with a header in the first-half.
Given the rumours around a return for last season's on-loan right back Ki-Jana Hoever, it's worth siding with Tchamadeu to SCORE ANYTIME while he is a guaranteed starter, with prices of 18/1 and 20/1 available on him to do so.
You can see his positioning for the cross from open play in the above screenshot. He's in an area where we'd typically see a forward - the slight mistiming of his jump the thing that let him down but he still directed the header towards goal.
The ball hit the inside of the post too so very nearly went in anyway, but it's the positioning that is the most encouraging thing to me.
Stoke's full-backs have the freedom to cut inside and feature more centrally too. Whoever lines up in the positions across the course of the campaign, they should finish with a few goals on their tally.
Bolton vs Wrexham
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Sunday
- TV: Sky Sports Football
- Home evens | Draw 9/4 | Away 23/10
Both sides kicked off their campaigns with victory last weekend before enduring mixed results in the cup action which followed.
Bolton progressed on penalties against Mansfield - Wrexham beaten in their trip to Bramall Lane against a side who sit in the league above.
Goals have been a feature of Wrexham's opening two contests, but their inability to defend set-pieces has been one of their biggest problems so far.
In terms of the underlying numbers, no side comes close to the 3.13 xG Wrexham have conceded from corners and free-kicks across their previous two.
🏴 Our Welshman in Wales.
— Wycombe Wanderers (@wwfcofficial) August 11, 2024
Sam Vokes's late header gave us hope of a Hollywood ending at the Stok Cae Ras. pic.twitter.com/joXHomDcyK
Auston Trusty struck for the Blades while Wycombe struck the crossbar from a corner before Sam Vokes netted from the same situation late on.
EOIN TOAL is worth a play to SCORE ANYTIME on Sunday then.
The Bolton centre-back netted five times in the league last season, returning a total of 30 shots in his 43 outings - ten of those were on target.
They are solid enough numbers for a player in his position but we have to factor in the increased probability against a team who have been struggling at defensive set-pieces.
Bolton, and Toal, can capitalise.
Odds correct at 1150 BST (15/08/24)
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