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Tom Carnduff's outright predictions: Best bets and tips for Championship and League One
Football betting tips: Sky Bet EFL 24/25
2.5pts e.w. Mateo Joseph to be Sky Bet Championship top goalscorer at 14/1 (Ladbrokes 1/4 1,2,3,4)
2pts e.w. Middlesbrough (+13) Sky Bet Championship handicap winner at 18/1 (Sky Bet 1/4 1,2,3,4)
1pt e.w. Rhys Healey to be Sky Bet League One top goalscorer at 40/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral 1/4 1,2,3,4)
1pt e.w. Sam Cosgrove to be Sky Bet League One top goalscorer at 66/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4)
It's been a non-stop summer of football, yet I'm so excited for the return of the Sky Bet EFL.
It delivers the genuine entertainment that can be lacking in the Premier League. Three leagues of pure drama with storylines throughout - you'll never find a stage in the season where there isn't a talking point.
This campaign sees the introduction of my weekly tipping column, which I believe allows me to look at games from literally anywhere in the world (I hope). It'll mostly be focused on games in the UK, Germany and Romania... probably.
The first edition is, as you've probably guessed, an EFL focus, with the Championship and League One in the staking plan. That doesn't mean I don't have any fancies from League Two but this has been well covered elsewhere (you can watch/listen to the This Week's Acca outright preview here).
So, let's get into it.
Boro's bounce back
The Sky Bet Championship is Leeds' to lose in 24/25. Last season's beaten play-off finalists who hit 90 points and look more than prepared for a title charge that, on paper, should be largely untroubled.
But below them, it's quite wide open. Questions surround the three teams who came down from the Premier League, and they shouldn't be as strong as Leicester or Southampton.
MIDDLESBROUGH's 23/24 campaign was one of disappointment but injury more than played its part. They should be a strong outfit again under Michael Carrick's guidance.
Prices of 11s and 12s are available on them to win the title - which is a tricky ask - but the 11/8 on a top six finish is a good bet. Instead, the +13 HANDICAP start is the most appealing at 18/1.
Ipswich, unsurprisingly with the benefit of hindsight, won the handicap table by a mile at +11 last season, while Burnley triumphed at +8 the year prior.
The Clarets' appointment of Scott Parker to replace Vincent Kompany this time around is questionable meaning I have no interest in them at +5. Luton are another who I'm uncertain on at +10.
It's based upon Leeds' potential of gaining more points than they did last time out. Say they win the title with around 93, some of the current points handicaps won't be enough to push them close.
The average points tally of the side who finished sixth across the past three seasons was 72.3. You'd therefore need a side floating around the +21ish handicap to run them close in this market.
I'm not convinced enough in the play-off potential of those on that marker to catch-up at the top, while others on +26 and +28 may not break 60 points.
I'll side with Carrick's side bouncing back with a positive season that, at the very least, lands them in the top six. That should see them a strong contender in the handicaps.
Mateo's time to shine
And with Leeds fancied for success this season, it's worth looking towards their attack to star.
The summer has seen Archie Gray depart but permanent deals for Joe Rodon and Jayden Bogle, combined with the loan addition of Joe Rothwell, means the squad looks more to Daniel Farke's liking.
Gray was the breakout star last season and the new campaign should see MATEO JOSEPH grab the headlines, with the young forward an interesting pick to be the CHAMPIONSHIP'S TOP GOALSCORER.
The 20-year-old's pre-season tour in Germany delivered three goals across two games against Hannover and Schalke, with a brace when starting in their FA Cup loss to Chelsea last season.
🔥 "Joseph gets on the end of it!" pic.twitter.com/uGglbnmvcR
— Leeds United (@LUFC) July 27, 2024
Farke has been playing a slightly adjusted system in pre-season, potentially preparing for life without Crysencio Summerville, and they do look a better attacking unit even if it is only the early stages still.
We could see a pairing of sorts with Joel Piroe, with Georginio Rutter pushed out wider. What this means for Joseph is the ability to play as an actual centre forward and he's shown he is probably the best at the club.
Even if they stick with the 4-2-3-1, Joseph is likely to be the most advanced with the talented Rutter behind. Wilfried Gnonto and Daniel James provide threats from wide, as will the player brought in to replace Summerville.
This is a gamble, of course. There is no guarantee he remains a starter or adapts to playing at this level on a regular basis. But this is a player with huge ability and one who started their final pre-season game against Valencia. That strongly suggests involvement as the first choice.
⚽⚽ Hannover 96
— Leeds United (@LUFC) August 3, 2024
⚽ Schalke 04
⚽ Valencia
🔥 @mateoojoseph9 pic.twitter.com/Y8puIqCata
Naturally, he found the net in that game too.
Joseph has proven his eye for goal. He had 17 in 28 Premier League 2 appearances before his first team involvement saw him moved up the order to the first team squad.
I can see both sides of the argument for Joseph being favourite in this market. I'm happy to take the risk given his situation though.
Rhys to Heal Huddersfield's chances
Into Sky Bet League One, where Birmingham are expected to secure the title with ease after a summer of significant spending.
Some bookmakers have gone as short as 7/4 that they finish top - prices that are far too short for my interest over the course of a season.
Huddersfield are a team that probably represent the best value at this stage, with striker RHYS HEALEY a TOP GOALSCORER contender at 40/1.
The 29-year-old scored three in 11 appearances following his January arrival from Watford and pre-season indicates that he's expected to play a big part over the next few months.
À jamais Violet 💜
— Toulouse FC (@ToulouseFC) June 13, 2023
Tu as choisi de conquérir d'autres terres. Car tel est ce que font toujours les Rois.
Bonne chance dans ta quête, King 👑
𝗠𝗘𝗥𝗖𝗜 𝗥𝗛𝗬𝗦 pic.twitter.com/mQtWiuy8lD
I'm slightly concerned by reports linking them to another striker signing this window but confident enough that Healey will still see plenty of minutes regardless of what happens.
Claiming the number 11 shirt from the 44 he had previously also strongly hints at far more first team involvement under Michael Duff's guidance.
A pre-season tour of Austria delivered two goals in three of the games - those against Aris Limassol and Lecce - and the fact one of them was from the spot suggests potential penalty duties going forward.
I have faith in Healey's goalscoring potential based on a prolific spell at Toulouse in the French second division. He netted 20 in 32 league appearances during the 2021/22 season before injury disrupted his following campaign.
If he can stay fit, there's every chance he plays a significant part in what could be a positive season for the Terriers. I'll side with Healey getting a decent percentage of their goals.
A Cos-y selection
Some groups of supporters may laugh about the pick I'm about to put forward and you know, fair enough, based on a few spells but I do think he may see plenty of chances in the right system.
SAM COSGROVE is available at 66s and I don't mind that considering Darrell Clarke is now in charge of Barnsley.
He actually finished last season in good touch with three goals across the two play-off legs against Bolton and the physical presence he brings will be a huge asset to Clarke's style.
It should mean plenty of minutes which wasn't the case previously. A stable, consistent amount of playing time should lead to good form at some stage.
Clarke's preference for a target striker is clear. Will Goodwin netted six in ten starts following his arrival at Cheltenham last season and departed for Oxford in the January.
Jamie Proctor's 21/22 campaign at Port Vale delivered 12 in 31 while a 21-year-old Elijah Adebayo scored eight in 30 at Walsall in the disrupted 19/20 campaign.
The latter two may not be prolific numbers but Cosgrove is now well experienced at this level and there is enough creativity within this Barnsley side to give him the service.
At 66/1, it's a bet worth involvement.
Odds correct at 1040 BST (05/08/24)
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