Fast Results
Scores
Tom Carnduff's outright predictions: Best bets and tips for 24/25 Premier League
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt e.w. Jean-Philippe Mateta to be Premier League top goalscorer at 50/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4)
1pt e.w. Christopher Nkunku to be Premier League top goalscorer at 50/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4)
The start of the Premier League season hasn't quite gripped me as much as the EFL does, although this is usually the case.
That doesn't mean I won't be immersing myself in everything to do with the top-flight, watching as many games as I can and following every element of it.
It's just that it feels slightly more predictable this year.
The title race is set to be between the two who have battled away across the previous two seasons. The three teams who have been promoted are likely to struggle again. Breaking into the top half looks a challenge for those floating around that area.
So perhaps that's where the lack of excitement comes from - the limited options that jump out across the markets.
But that doesn't mean there isn't anything. I love the top goalscorer offering despite Erling Haaland's (8/11) dominant position - last season saw Dominic Solanke end in the places having been a 250/1 shot pre-season.
Unfortunately, this time around the bookmakers haven't been so generous - there aren't that many options in the three figure prices that jump out as serious contenders.
But two do represent good value and I'm happy to side with them as my only real outright fancies for the 24/25 Premier League campaign.
Mateta's eye-catching form
Oliver Glasner's appointment turned out to be a hugely positive one for Crystal Palace in the second half of last season.
They may have lost Michael Olise to Bayern Munich but positives are still there ahead of the new campaign. It's one in which they'll believe they can challenge for a top-half spot again.
The form of JEAN-PHILIPPE MATETA is one of the major reasons why.
Under Glasner, Mateta returned a staggering 13 goals in as many games - 12 of those from open play and one from the penalty spot in a win over Burnley. The latter an important note when it comes to this market.
The forward was very clinical. His 70.4% shooting accuracy was well clear of the next-best in this Palace side while he converted with 48.1% of his total shots.
He saw enough chances, with his expected goals (xG) per 90 tally sitting at 0.69. For context, that is roughly the equivalent of seeing two 'big chances' coming his way in every game.
Will Palace score enough goals? You wouldn't back against it given their attacking style under Glasner's guidance.
What about this for a strike from Jean-Philippe Mateta 😳☄️ pic.twitter.com/muV5snygjY
— Sky Sports Premier League (@SkySportsPL) May 6, 2024
Mateta may miss the very early part of the campaign following his involvement at the Olympics yet his performances in Paris offer further encouragement - five goals in six matches as France were beaten by Spain in the gold medal match.
Haaland's presence always makes this market difficult but 19 goals got you into the places last season - 20 would get each-way money in each of the last five editions.
There is enough creativity in this Palace side and it's one that is moulding more into Glasner's ideal - a preference for 'number 10s' as opposed to outright wingers should only serve to benefit Mateta's chances.
It's a big enough price to tempt me in.
Nkunku's promising pre-season
This is a pick where we have to focus on the player's quality and try to ignore the tactical side of things a little bit.
Why? Well I'm not entirely convinced that Enzo Maresca lasts the season. He may not be in this job when Christmas arrives.
So, so silky. ✨#BluesInTheUSA pic.twitter.com/fjh5bAU1hZ
— Chelsea FC (@ChelseaFC) August 1, 2024
Chelsea could well struggle but CHRISTOPHER NKUNKU has shown his ability when fit previously, making him worth a play in the TOP GOALSCORER market.
An injury-disrupted campaign delivered three goals in 11 appearances last season but he only had a handful of starts. A full pre-season this time has reminded us what he is capable of.
Nkunku found the net in Chelsea's first three friendlies in the USA. Two of those came from the penalty spot too - he could carry those duties into the season when Cole Palmer isn't on the pitch.
Chelsea have an obscene amount of first team players to choose from yet it feels as if Nkunku's versatility in the forward line makes him someone who is likely to feature in the overwhelming majority of their games.
So close to a stunning equaliser from Nkunku! pic.twitter.com/iKD6T24Vfl
— Chelsea FC (@ChelseaFC) August 11, 2024
Talk of his Bundesliga record may send shivers down the spines of Chelsea supporters (Kai Havertz and Timo Werner the reasons why) but it does deliver further cause for optimism.
He scored 23 in 36 games for Leipzig in 22/23, with 35 coming in 52 games the season before.
Injury is the one factor that places some slight doubt in my mind about this pick, yet the prices available make it worthwhile.
Odds correct at 1200 BST (12/08/24)
More from Sporting Life
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.