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Tom Carnduff's Notebook: Yoane Wissa, Barcelona offside trap, Chris Wood
Going through the results at the top level, it looks as if this weekend largely played out as expected.
I was in Dublin this weekend so I didn't watch as much football as I usually would. The majority of the football I have seen though was viewed with an increasing amount of Guinness alongside it each time.
So that does mean the Notebook is slightly shorter this week (I think, maybe not actually), covering some of the things I did see or notice from the latest round of fixtures.
It's also nice to have a midweek not packed full of league or European fixtures. The Carabao Cup takes centre stage and that's more than fine with me.
Maybe some of the points from those games will feature in next week's edition. For now, here's five things from the weekend.
Buzzing for the Bees
Brentford's Yoane Wissa made it four goals in five Premier League starts this season when he struck in the Bees' 4-3 win over Ipswich on Saturday.
His form for the club has been superb yet has somewhat gone under the radar - he's proving to be a crucial figure for Brentford.
Across his last 19 top-flight games, Wissa has struck 12 times. He's averaging a goal every 3.6 Premier League games which is particularly impressive when we consider that a lot of those have been from the bench or out wide.
Coming on as a centre forward, the figure drops to a goal every 2.88 games. Now make him the starting centre forward and we're on a goal every 2.38 games.
He's now settled into the league though. Across the past three seasons - which includes this one - his average stands at a goal every 2.13 league games when starting in his preferred role.
The goal last time out shows that the injury which sidelined him for a few games hasn't stopped any momentum either.
With an away game at Fulham and then a home contest against Bournemouth before the November international break, there will be some value in backing Wissa to keep scoring.
A top scorer candidate?
Let's stick to the topic of in-form Premier League strikers, shall we?
And where else can we go on that subject than Chris Wood who has been sensational for Nottingham Forest since Nuno Espirito Santo took charge in December last year.
The 32-year-old has scored seven in nine appearances this season, with two coming in the 3-1 win over Leicester last time out.
Following Nuno's appointment, Wood's returned 18 goals in 25 league appearances. Only Erling Haaland and Bryan Mbeumo have scored more this season.
Betfair and Paddy Power go 33/1 that Wood finishes as the top scorer. Haaland is, as you'd expect, a significant problem yet a third of the odds on offer for two places on an each-way bet make it a wager worth having at this point.
Forest have also already faced Brighton, Chelsea and Liverpool away too - three tough fixtures out of the way with in the opening part of the campaign.
Wood has proven to be very clinical. A total of 39% of his shots have ended up being a goal this season - 67% of shots being at least on target.
West Ham at home up next, another good chance to keep this scoring run going.
Set-piece issues for Arsenal?
I saw Virgil van Dijk's price to score anytime was 18/1 for Liverpool's trip to Arsenal on Sunday - a game which finished in a 2-2 draw.
He did just that - and of course, I didn't back it - but it was something that caught my eye based on certain figures missing for the Gunners. Just how would they cope defending set-pieces without William Saliba?
Saliba returns from suspension for their next match yet an injury to Gabriel could see the pair separated once again when they travel to Newcastle on Saturday.
A super response from Liverpool's captain 🔴 pic.twitter.com/lNUemc1wwQ
— Sky Sports Premier League (@SkySportsPL) October 27, 2024
While Arsenal have been good at defending set-pieces, they're not the best in the league at them - that's Nottingham Forest according to the underlying numbers.
Newcastle may not be high in the rankings for chances created from attacking those set-pieces but then neither were Liverpool before Sunday's contest.
There's now a potential route to goal for opponents when Arsenal's usually centre-back pairing are separated. This, of course, depends on the team news between now and kick-off at the weekend.
A concerning trend
Ipswich fans went through a range of emotions during that defeat to Brentford.
From 2-0 up after half an hour to 2-2 at half-time. Liam Delap looked as if he'd claimed a point with a late equaliser only for Mbeumo to net a winner in the final moments.
Game state plays a factor when studying the underlying numbers but it was another case of this awful Ipswich defence being horrendously exposed once again.
Brentford created chances worth 4.11 xG, and while they may have had a penalty in that, it is yet another game in which the Tractor Boys conceded far, far too many.
After nine games, Ipswich top the expected goals against (xGA) charts with 21.54. That works out as an average of 2.39 per game. You simply can't be performing like that.
And while their story is a nice one and they can have their day in the sun, at what point does the 'plucky underdogs' tag become a 'seriously, what are you even trying to do here?'.
Luton finished last season averaging 2.05 xGA per game - impressive to outdo that Sheffield United defence - while Leeds were the worst in 22/23 with 1.77 xGA per game.
Norwich took the crown in 21/22 with 1.99 xGA and it was West Brom the campaign before that with 1.79 xGA. Nobody coming remotely close to the sort of figures Ipswich are returning.
Perhaps it's a sign of the increasing gap between the Championship and the Premier League, but Ipswich's spending going over £100million in the summer has given them this back line. It's not good enough.
It's still early enough into the season, of course, but the signs aren't exactly there that things are going to improve in this department.
Caught in a trap
Saturday night treated us to the El Clasico and it was a memorable one for Barcelona - they ran out 4-0 winners against fierce rivals Real Madrid.
Robert Lewandowski struck twice but one of the eye-catching elements of the game was just how often Kylian Mbappe was caught offside.
He finished the contest with a staggering total of eight offsides. Quite frankly, that is an absolutely ridiculous number.
Barcelona's offside trap was a strength anyway but I didn't quite realise the full extent of just how good it has been this season until I delved into the numbers a bit.
In total, Barcelona's opponents have been caught offside a combined 77 times in LaLiga this season. That is well over DOUBLE the next-best in the league (Osasuna with 35).
For comparison, Brighton lead the way in the Premier League with 35, while Parma top things in Italy on 33. In Germany, it's Bochum on 25.
Bayern Munich could consider it a good thing in a way then that they only finished their recent Champions League encounter with three. Young Boys posted seven though, Monaco had six.
It's well worth backing the higher offside lines when bookmakers offer them for Barcelona games. The prices will obviously now be shorter but it's something to keep at for the next few weeks at least.
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