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Tom Carnduff's Notebook: Set-pieces, flying full-backs and FPL value
The opening weekend in the EFL was fun, wasn't it?
Because that's what football always is, endless fun. Let's ignore the battle to be kings of the spreadsheet to navigate financial rules and just have a bit of fun.
I believe it's 102 goals that Sky Sports have claimed they've shown across the past few days. The ability to watch every game was a nice novelty and one I won't be getting tired of soon.
Friday brings the return of the Premier League and a clash between Erik ten Hag's Manchester United (not bothered) and likely mid-table side Fulham (not bothered) in a contest they are already labelling as 'on this Friday'.
Excited? Yeah, why not. The top level will never find levels of entertainment that the Championship provides but hey, bless 'em for trying.
Last week's edition of the Notebook featured hot takes such as 'Sheffield United might start slowly' (they won 2-0 and Ryan Lowe left Preston afterwards) BUT did suggest backing Pascal Struijk to score for Leeds, so...
This one is a hybrid of Premier League and EFL content. Part of it looking forward and the other looking back, but all of it interesting things I've found from the past week or so.
Millwall's set-piece threat
Turns out Millwall are good at set-pieces again to the surprise of absolutely nobody.
Despite only taking five corners, they saw four shots and two 'big chances' come from their set-pieces in the 3-2 defeat to Watford - they were one of only two sides to create more than one 'big chance' from dead-ball situations.
This is going to be a successful route to goal for them throughout the campaign. They have the physicality and height to exploit many a Championship team.
Both Jake Cooper and Shaun Hutchinson saw efforts towards goal last time out - the centre-back pairing combining for a total of 0.13 expected goals (xG) - with the 0.87 team xG from set-pieces the seventh-highest of all 72 clubs this weekend.
While Bristol City aren't exactly the smallest team, you should get good prices on either of the above scoring at the weekend given Millwall are near 3/1 outsiders.
Stoke's flying full-backs
Stoke's campaign began with victory over Coventry - Lewis Baker's 78th minute effort the difference between the two sides.
It wasn't a game full of chances but the Potters' full-backs playing in advanced positions in possession was an eye-catching element of their game.
While they demonstrated a preference to attack down their left, right-back Junior Tchamadeu was far more fluid in his positioning. He was drifting everywhere on the right 'half' of the pitch.
He saw Stoke's biggest chance of the game, according to the data, and that came as a result of his open play positioning in attack.
The above screenshot shows this. The cross comes in from the left and he's in the area where we'd typically see the striker. The timing of the jump is slightly off but the header directs onto the post and away.
This coming after slowly joining the attack, avoiding the full sprinting speed which would catch the attention of the opposition defence.
It's worth backing Tchamadeu to score either in the Carabao Cup contest with Carlisle on Tuesday night or when they travel to Watford on Saturday given constant rumours of a return for Ki-Jana Hoever.
Target the corners
Derby looked so poor defensively in their loss to Blackburn on Friday night - far too easy to play through and punished by a team likely to be towards the bottom end of the table this season.
One positive though was set-pieces and the likelihood of them playing to win them throughout the course of the campaign.
They finished the weekend eighth for quality of chances created from set-pieces with the equaliser in their last contest particularly pleasing on the eye.
This is just a lovely header isn’t it pic.twitter.com/0BE80XaL5D
— Tom Carnduff (@TomCarnduff) August 9, 2024
I mean just look at it. Nice cross, player rises much higher than anyone else, clean contact, flying goalkeeper, crowd go wild behind - *chef's kiss*.
There is going to be value in backing Derby's corners line, particularly in home games or when they are big outsiders away against those at the top.
The Rams attempted the seventh-highest amount of crosses across the EFL this weekend too. The style they operate with benefits the possibility of corners being awarded, and given the fact they know just how strong they are from them, it's something they'll constantly look towards.
Rogers could shine
Into the Premier League then where competitive action returns this weekend.
It's going to be a busy season for Aston Villa with Champions League involvement under genius Unai Emery, and plenty of rotation will be needed to ensure they can compete on multiple fronts.
One name who could shine in the early stages is Morgan Rogers following a very positive pre-season campaign.
Rogers scored twice across their opening three games of the summer and he's seen consistent minutes throughout - he was also in the XI for their final contest against Dortmund.
Jacob Ramsey's return offers competition but Rogers looks primed to start when they travel to West Ham on Saturday.
The forward - likely to start on the wing - averaged 0.42 goals per 90 in the Premier League last season following his January move from Middlesbrough. That came from a solid enough 0.19 xG figure.
One for the FPL players, his £5.0m price tag as a MID looks a bit of a bargain.
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