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Tom Carnduff's Notebook: Jurriën Timber's role, Evanilson and Notts County's creativity
Is a week a long time in football? It certainly feels like it.
Last week's Notebook looks cursed on reflection. A number of topics covered where the opposite seemingly happened.
Burnley (who I'll touch on again in a bit) posted low underlying numbers which weren't considered a problem because of the individual talent.
Dominic Solanke enjoyed a fine debut for Tottenham and Joachim Andersen was an eye-catching feature for Crystal Palace on opening weekend.
And what happened? Burnley decided to sell a load of players, Solanke picked up an injury which ruled him out of the Everton game and Andersen departed for Fulham.
To quote Jeremy Clarkson from a Top Gear special in Africa: "Sometimes my genius, it's almost frightening."
A new week brings new talking points at least, and here's five I hope will still be applicable come the next round of fixtures.
A tactical match-up
Aston Villa's clash with Arsenal in Saturday's late kick-off was an entertaining one - the Gunners getting the job done despite their opponents seeing good opportunities to strike.
What was particularly interesting was Villa's out of possession approach to a team trying to build up in a 3-2-5 formation.
In order to combat it, Unai Emery had his side operating with a 3-3 box of sorts - a hexagon-shaped approach - aiming to block the passing lanes into midfield and out wide while also pressing the centre-backs in a man-to-man approach.
Naturally, Mikel Arteta looked for a way to combat this and it was an interesting use of Jurriën Timber to do so.
At times, he'd rotate into centre-back with Gabriel pushing to the left in order to try and change the press. But it's the other way which is the most useful to us.
Thomas Partey would drop into the defensive line with Timber operating in midfield. The confusion this caused allowed him to carry the ball forwards and play in advanced positions.
The above heat map demonstrates his role and makes him an interesting option to score or assist in certain games where they'll have to work against this structure.
I'm not sure what will happen if Timber isn't at left-back, with Riccardo Calafiori a right-footed player. The option could be to have Ben White operate in a similar manner.
With away games at Tottenham and Manchester City to come - Brighton may even try this next up at the Emirates - I'll be backing Timber for goal involvement if he's starting.
Bournemouth's new man
Bournemouth drew 1-1 with Newcastle on Sunday - a game which saw a debut for Evanilson.
The striker was brought in to replace Dominic Solanke and looked lively across the 72 minutes he was involved.
His three shots returned one on target with the chances equating to a significant 0.81 xG - for context, a 'big chance' is defined as something above 0.35 xG.
I'll be interested to see if he plays in their Carabao Cup contest with West Ham on Wednesday to continue to get him up to speed - there will certainly be some value in backing him to score against a changed back line.
If not, the Cherries' next league game takes them to struggling Everton. That will surely present some chances for him to strike.
Tied up in Notts
I had Notts County in my top seven prediction, unsure whether they'd be able to challenge for automatic promotion or find themselves settling for a play-off spot.
I am sure they'll take either given how the previous campaign tailed off. Across their four games so far - which includes the Carabao Cup defeat to Shrewsbury on penalties - they are creating more than enough.
They hit four in victory over Grimsby in Thursday's televised game and that wasn't a surprise when we factor in the performances in the weeks prior.
Notts have created chances worth 8.55 expected goals (xG) across their games (including the cup) - nine goals coming and it could have easily been more.
There was some fortune in their last outing - a bizarre statement in such a convincing scoreline I know - but the first was offside, the second handball and another taking a wicked deflection (CLICHÉ) before finding the net.
Still, they were the better team on the night (SECOND CLICHÉ) and one to consider backing their goals lines in the weeks to come.
Take your chances!
And on the topic of creativity, Middlesbrough aren't matching the level with goals.
They've found the net three times across their three league games so far but their 7.49 xG is the most of any side across the 72 - the same applies to their total of 68 shots.
The seven big chances they've missed ranks them fourth, while they are down in 12th for efforts on target.
There's a case to be made for backing their goals line in the weeks to come. The midweeker against Stoke in the Carabao Cup and the early kick-off trip to Cardiff on Saturday being two good games to target.
Results may not have followed but I remain confident in Middlesbrough's potential this season under Michael Carrick's guidance.
All change...
In last week's Notebook, I spoke about Burnley's numbers not being a huge concern because of the individual talent they had at their disposal.
Just seven days later, I'm now asking myself: 'what the hell is going on at that club?'
Scott Parker's side started brilliantly, winning 4-1 at Luton before hitting five past Cardiff. Since then, four players have left in the space of four days with others rumoured to be on the way out.
Scott Parker discussed a "big" final week of the transfer window after today's defeat to Sunderland 🔄#twitterclarets pic.twitter.com/wyRDff3cgR
— BurnleyExpress Sport (@BXSport) August 24, 2024
Hannibal Mejbri, Jeremy Sarmiento and Jaidon Anthony are heading in but it's a significant enough turnover and a far from ideal way to be approaching the final week of the transfer window.
"I’ve said it from the outset, players that don’t want to be at the football club and don’t want to be around it, it’s clear that’s not what we’re going to try and develop here," Parker told his press conference after defeat to Sunderland on Saturday.
"I want people here who ultimately want to be part of this and this journey and there’s a couple of little bumps along the way."
It's a huge risk after such a solid start. They will certainly be a club to watch during deadline day on Friday.
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