Tom Carnduff's Notebook: Joachim Andersen, Savinho and Burnley's xG

The Best League In The World™️ returned with a number of games that could be best described as 'having happened'.

West Ham vs Aston Villa and Brentford vs Crystal Palace were alright, I suppose, but my decision to spend the weekend painting the living room looks to be an inspired one based on the dross served up elsewhere.

God bless the Sky Bet EFL at least. Four of Saturday's seven 3pm kick-offs in the Championship delivered four or more goals, with the same happening in five of 11 League Two contests.

We're at the stage of the summer where one eye remains on the transfer market, particularly if your chosen club has opted for selling their best players with no replacements yet as their preferred approach to trying for promotion.

A couple of things caught the eye in the top-flight at least, which I'll cover shortly, while the leagues below continue to deliver the talking points that will likely make up the majority of the Notebook going forward.

Burnley's data is rubbish! Burnley's data is rubbish!

Burnley are flying in the early stages under Scott 'Scotty' Parker.

Two wins from two, nine goals scored and just one conceded must put them top of the table (I'm going to do the footballer thing of not checking the table until, like, September).

Nine goals. Nine! Buttttttt theeeee daaaaaAAaaaAAttttTTTaaaaAAA saysssss it'ssss rubbish! 🤪

The combined expected goals (xG) total from their two games has been 2.27. A massive over-performance - although watching the goals back suggests they may be undervalued a little bit.

Josh Brownhill vs Luton (0.21 xG) was a one-on-one opportunity; Brownhill vs Cardiff (0.44 xG) was a one-on-one opportunity. You'd be angry as a match-going fan if he's missing four of every five attempts at the first one (which is on the left in the example above).

Granted, a few of the other efforts would make Champ Kind's 'WHAMMY!' montage from Anchorman, but being clinical is far from a bad thing and possessing players who can actually finish chances puts them in strong position.

Jóhann Berg Guðmundsson's effort from distance was rated 0.09 xG yet he had so much time and space to line up the shot - Vitinho's goal at Luton rated 0.08 xG because of the tight angle but the sheer power gave it a great chance of finding a gap.

I like xG but the obsession with one metric among many makes me understand why some people are resistant to it. It's a nice indicator but needs the additional context to go with it.

Bournemouth sat third for xG created in 2021/22 while Fulham were fifth in 19/20. Both times Parker got them promoted, even if you can argue they didn't quite match the talent they had within their squad.

There's nothing wrong with having top individual talent and, after all, we've only played two games. There's also no point predicting a huge drop off at such an early stage based on one thing.

Solanke's solid start

I'm returning on Tuesday to add this one in following the surprise Monday Night Football draw between Leicester and Tottenham.

Spurs were dominant for the first 45 minutes yet somehow found a way to throw it away. We did see a debut for Dominic Solanke who had opportunities to strike.

His total of three shots on target was the most of any player involved - they accounted for 29% of their 1.18 xG total on the night.

Solanke looked settled in this attack-minded team. Alongside seeing efforts denied, he also created a chance late on as Tottenham were pushing for a winner.

There weren't any signs of needing to adjust to a different set-up - I'll be having him to score when they face Everton on Saturday.

Andersen's adventure

Sunday delivered defeat for Crystal Palace in an entertaining game at Brentford - Yoane Wissa the difference in a 2-1 victory for the hosts.

A number of things caught the eye during the game, but the biggest one for me was the positioning of Palace centre-back Joachim Andersen when they were in possession.

We've seen defenders overlapping out wide before but I've not witnessed the centre-back/number 10 hybrid that many times.

He had a (weak) effort from open play saved, that being a shot outside the box in the first-half. Even with the 'licence' (CLICHÉ) to get further forward under Oliver Glasner, it seems to have gone up a bit more for the new campaign.

It obviously has to be the right match - one with an attack-minded team presenting the space to exploit. The positive is that you won't get too many teams sitting back against Palace given their own intent on getting forward.

Hopefully we'll get some good goalscorer prices given that he's a centre-back. It's the bonus of open play contribution alongside the set-piece presence he brings.

It'll probably be worth backing him in Palace's next couple of games and then assessing.

Savinho stars

Manchester City looked solid in their 2-0 win at Chelsea, with the biggest disappointment being that Savinho was forced off through injury at half-time.

Luckily for them, it doesn't appear to be too serious, as Pep Guardiola revealed after the game: "Apparently it’s not a big, big problem. Will be ready for hopefully next Saturday."

He was a player to watch anyway but that 45 minutes at Stamford Bridge has confirmed that he is a real contender to be a starter throughout the campaign.

Savinho is so much like Riyad Mahrez. A left-footed right winger wearing 26 whose dribbling style is massively comparable to their former Algeria wide man.

Despite only featuring in the first-half, Savinho registered three chances created (the joint-most of any player) and completed all three of his attempted take-ons.

He scored 11 and assisted a further 10 in 41 appearances for Girona, on-loan from Troyes, last season (well done City for somehow getting that deal done then) and the very early signs are positive for a productive campaign in a superior team.

I'll keep an eye on further injury updates from Guardiola this week but the chances are he could represent good value to contribute in their home tie with Ipswich on Saturday.

Fernandez looking to fire

On the Chelsea side of things, Enzo Fernandez's involvement in an advanced position may open up some value.

With Romeo Lavia (who played well) and Moises Caicedo occupying the two central midfield roles, Fernandez was pushed closer to Nicolas Jackson and attempted the most shots of any player on the pitch (three).

It's not a huge surprise when we consider he did play an attacking position at stages last season but the expectation would be a return to a role of anchor in a possession-based approach under Enzo Maresca.

There was some rotation involved so he wasn't stuck playing further forward but it wouldn't be a surprise to see him better the seven goals he scored across all competitions last season.

You've got an hilarious amount of competition for places at this bizarre club but he's worth consideration in the goalscorer market for games against Servette, Wolves and Crystal Palace to come.

Sunderland's strong performance

Sunderland were good on Sunday, weren't they?

A perfect reminder to not get carried away by what you see on opening weekend, they thrashed Sheffield Wednesday 4-0, just a week after the Owls had won by the same scoreline against Plymouth.

Eliezer Mayenda grabbed two of the goals at the Stadium of Light, with his performance putting him on the radar for the next few weeks.

The 19-year-old, who spent part of last season on-loan at Hibernian, has been leading their line ahead of Chris Rigg. Both of his goals on Sunday a showing of what he can deliver.

The first a clinical finish from the edge of the area, the second being a perfectly-timed run to convert a low cross from yards out. You can question the defending on both but Mayenda's positioning ensured he fully capitalised.

The one thing to keep an eye on is the future of star winger Jack Clarke, with Leeds keen to bring him back to Elland Road following the sales of Crysencio Summerville and Georginio Rutter.

If he goes, that's a big part of the creativity gone and Mayenda may not get the quality of chances he saw on Sunday.

But even then, certain fixtures may represent value in backing him to strike - that includes the contest with Burnley next up where Sunderland are made outsiders.

Wrexham's set-piece problems

A trip to Sky Bet League One and time to talk Wrexham, as much as people may not want to.

There's been a lot of positivity surrounding the club in their high profile (and expensive) rise from the National League to England's third tier, but one negative has been their vulnerability at set-pieces.

We've spoken about xG above and, for some context, anything rated above 0.35 xG and above is considered to be a 'big chance'. In their two league games so far, Wrexham have conceded 2.92 xG from set-piece situations.

In simple terms then, and to help you visualise that a bit, Wrexham have essentially conceded what would be the equivalent of eight 'big chances' from free-kicks and corners.

Bolton centre-backs Eoin Toal and Ricardo Santos both posted a shot in their last contest, with both Wycombe defenders also seeing efforts towards goal.

In total, it's 12 shots against already if you include direct free-kicks. That is a huge cause for concern.

Reading and Peterborough - their next two opponents - have hardly been prolific from these situations so far but they may well target them as a route to goal. There will be value in the opposition centre-backs across the next few weeks.

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