Our team previews Thursday's Europa League quarter-final first legs, with Arsenal and Manchester United bidding to reach the semi-finals.
Football betting tips: Europa League
- 1.5pts Both Teams To Score ‘NO’ in Manchester United v Granada at 5/6 (Betvictor)
- 1pt Manchester United to beat Granada to nil at 7/5 (RedZone)
- 1pt Slavia Prague to qualify at 15/8 (BoyleSports, SpreadEx)
- 1pt Draw (Villarreal -1 handicap) vs Dinamo Zagreb at 5/2 (Betfair Sportsbook)
- 1pt e.w. Nicolas Tagliafico to score first in Roma v Ajax at 33/1 (Sky Bet) (e.w. terms 1/3 1-99)
- 0.5pt Nicolas Tagliafico to score 2+ goals in Roma v Ajax at 300/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
Manchester United v Granada
Read Jake Pearson's full preview here
- Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Thursday
- TV channel: BT Sport 2
- Home 4/9 | Draw 10/3 | Away 13/2
Both teams have found the net in just 20% of Manchester United’s fixtures in the Europa League this season, with Ole’s men stopping the opposition from scoring in 80% of their matches, the highest clean sheet percentage in the competition. Only 36% of Granada matches have seen both sides get on the scoresheet, with the Spanish side failing to score in four of their eleven matches in the competition.
Keeping Granada at bay will be the number one target for United, despite the notion that the famous Manchester club play every game to win, and that means siding with BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE ‘NO’ in this fixture makes plenty of appeal, particularly at a standout price of 5/6 with BetVictor.
In a similar vein, the way this game is set up should suit Manchester United down to the ground, with Granada forced to take the game to the home side, leaving plenty of spaces for one of Europe’s most dangerous counter-attacking sides.
It is likely that United will catch Granada on the break, and with a home clean sheet expected, that makes a price of 7/5 for MANCHESTER UNITED TO WIN TO NIL another selection of appeal.
All in all, this should be a relatively straightforward night for Manchester United, who already have one foot in the semi-final of the Europa League.
Score prediction: Manchester United 2-0 Granada (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct 0900 BST (13/04/21)
Slavia Prague v Arsenal
Read Jake Pearson's full preview here
- Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Thursday
- TV channel: BT Sport 1
- Home 7/2 | Draw 13/5 | Away 4/5
Slavia drew their first leg matches with both Leicester and Rangers in the two previous rounds, before demonstrating consummate professionalism and nous to get the job done in the return fixture, winning both second legs by a scoreline of 2-0.
Round after round in this competition Slavia Prague have been underestimated, something that has been highlighted by Sporting Life recently, correctly tipping them to beat Rangers in the last round, as well as making profit from the first leg of this tie by backing against an Arsenal win, and that looks to be the case once again here.
Bearing in mind a stalemate, or obviously a win for the Czech side, would be enough to send them through, a price of 15/8 for SLAVIA PRAGUE TO QUALIFY looks worth siding with, and even should Arsenal grab a 1-1, we still have the possibility of extra time and penalties.
Slavia Prague or Draw on the double chance market is currently even money, making a price of just below 2/1 for our selection very appealing, despite obviously losing the cushion of a high-scoring draw.
Score prediction: Slavia Prague 0-0 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Odds correct at 1300 BST (13/04/21)
Villarreal v Dinamo Zagreb
Read Jake Pearson's full preview here
- Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Thursday
- TV channel: BT Sport ESPN
- Home 4/9 | Draw 3/1 | Away 15/2
This is likely to be a cagey affair, and for this reason, siding with Villarreal to win by exactly one goal seems a logical selection.
Five of the eleven matches Villarreal have won in La Liga this season have been by exactly one goal (45%), while three of their Europa League victories have also come by the same winning margin, including the first leg of this tie.
Villarreal have also kept six clean sheets in the competition this season, conceding just four goals throughout their European campaign (and three of those came in their 5-3 win over Sivasspor at the very beginning of the competition).
Plenty of bookmakers will offer a Winning Margin market, but in the interest of gaining the best possible price, it is worth delving into the handicap markets.
Backing DRAW (VILLARREAL -1) in a three-way handicap market is effectively the same bet, but whereas the Winning Margin market is offering a best price of 9/4, and as short as 23/10 in places, Betfair Sportsbook are offering a price of 5/2 for the same outcome on the handicap market.
If Villarreal win by one goal, irrespective of the scoreline, then we are collecting, and that feels like a decent bet in this fixture.
Score prediction: Villarreal 1-0 Dinamo Zagreb (Sky Bet odds: 4/1)
Odds correct 1500 BST (13/04/21)
Roma v Ajax
Read Tom Carnduff's full preview
- Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Thursday
- TV channel: BT Sport 3
- Home 13/8 | Draw 11/4 | Away 7/5
There are a couple of prices which stand out in the goalscorer market, particularly when we consider that Ajax need to score two here to stand any chance of progression. The one that immediately catches the eye is the 33/1 on NICOLAS TAGLIAFICO scoring first. We shouldn't let the fact that he only has one on his tally this season put us off.
Tagliafico came close to scoring in the first leg and that has been the story of his season so far. The left-back has hit at least five goals in his previous two campaigns but he's been unable to hit the net as often despite Ajax's lofty position at the top of the Eredivisie standings.
A look into Tagliafico's statistics on Infogol show that his four Europa League appearances have seen a combined expected goals figure of 0.57. That's above 0.14 per game which is significant here. It demonstrates that he is getting chances to score and will eventually take one.
I'm not completely against the eye-watering 300/1 with Betfair and Paddy Power on TAGLIAFICO TO SCORE 2+ GOALS either if there's a 'London buses' type theory behind it. He's drastically underperformed with his chances so far but a game where they need to score more than once may encourage that clinical edge.
What has drawn me to this bet, apart from the obvious huge price on offer, is that fact that he's done it before. Tagliafico has recorded a brace in each of his last two seasons - one of those was a Champions League contest is 2018/19.
Score prediction: Roma 1-3 Ajax (Sky Bet odds: 16/1)
Odds correct at 1700 BST (13/04/21)
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