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Our match preview and best bets for Norwich v Leicester

Norwich City v Leicester City betting preview: Analysis, prediction, stats and best bets for Friday Night Football in the Premier League

By Tom Carnduff

Football

Fri February 28, 2020 · 5y ago

Friday Night Football comes from Carrow Road, as struggling Norwich welcome top-four hopefuls Leicester. We preview the action.

Recommended bets

1pt Alexander Tettey to score from outside the area at 33/1

1pt Jamal Lewis to be shown a card at 7/1

For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record

Norwich v Leicester

2000 GMT kick-off on Sky Sports Premier League

With eleven games remaining of the Premier League season, Norwich will need a minor miracle if they are to somehow survive with seven points separating themselves and Aston Villa in 17th.

Their problem is that the remaining fixtures aren't the kindest. Daniel Farke's men still have to play Sheffield United, Everton, Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester City following the clash with Leicester.

One positive is that they face a Foxes side who have struggled for form in recent weeks. They've won just one of their last six Premier League encounters which has left them trailing Pep Guardiola's City by seven points.

They'll fancy their chances of victory at Carrow Road though and justify their odds-on 3/4 price across the board.

A one-sided affair in the markets does make good value difficult to find. However, there's two avenues worth exploring and both concern the home side.

The first is the bigger-priced selection of the duo. It may not be the 'go-to' bet of the match but there is appeal in the 33/1 available on Alexander Tettey to score from outside the area.

The Norwich midfielder only has one goal on his tally this season but isn't afraid of trying to find the net - particularly from distance.

He's registered at least one shot in each of his last seven Premier League appearances, with a total of eight in the four games before that. The stand-out feature is that the majority of these come from outside the box.

Alexander Tettey's shot map v Bournemouth (via WhoScored.com)

Norwich's home victory over Bournemouth is a good example to demonstrate this. Those two efforts both came from the same area of the pitch - one narrowly missed the left post while the other was too high.

Two of Tettey's last five appearances have seen two shots registered. In the reverse fixture with Leicester, a 1-1 draw at the King Power Stadium in mid-December, the defensive midfielder registered a season-high three shots across the 90 minutes.

It's 10/1 across the board that the 33-year-old strikes in this game but given form over the past three months, it's worth going for that extra value and taking the 33/1 on a goal coming from outside the 18-yard box.

Elsewhere, it's worth considering cards in this game with Craig Pawson appointed as referee. He's shown at least three cards in each of his last five appearances, with a total of ten yellows and one red in his last two Premier League games.

Jamal Lewis has been brought back into the side in recent weeks following his absence for large parts between November and February and Sam Byram's season-ending injury should see the Northern Ireland international retain his starting spot.

Lewis has been shown two yellows so far during the current campaign, one of which came in a rare start against Tottenham at the end of December.

We know the pace Leicester possess in attack and that could prove to be problematic for the Norwich back line. At a best price of 7/1, it's worth a small play on Lewis committing a foul that catches the attention of the official.

When it comes to the outright market, the away side provide the biggest appeal. Rather than backing the outright win, going for Leicester and over 2.5 goals in the match pushes it to an odds-against 6/4 price.

Score prediction: Norwich 1-2 Leicester (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)

Best bet: Alexander Tettey to score from outside the area at 33/1

Best bet: Jamal Lewis to be shown a card at 7/1

Teemu Pukki scores for Norwich against Leicester in the Premier League

Opta stats

Norwich are winless in their last three league meetings with Leicester (D1 L2), losing 1-2 the last time they hosted the Foxes in October 2015.
Leicester’s last Premier League defeat against Norwich was back in November 1994 (1-2), winning three and drawing one of their four such meetings since.
This is just Norwich’s fourth Premier League game to take place on a Friday – they’ve lost each of the previous three by an aggregate score of 2-11 (1-5 vs Tottenham in April 1993, 1-4 vs Liverpool in August 2019 and 0-2 vs Watford in November 2019).
Norwich have won just one of their last 14 Premier League games (D5 L8) and have failed to score in each of their last three. Indeed, Norwich’s last two goals have been penalties, with the Canaries not scoring from open play since the 4th minute of their match against Crystal Palace on New Year’s Day.
Leicester have failed to score in their last two Premier League games – they’d only failed to score in two of their previous 24 in the competition, netting 54 goals in that run.
After a run of nine consecutive Premier League home games in which they conceded at least two goals, Norwich have shipped just twice across their last three at Carrow Road (W1 D1 L1).
Leicester have won just one of their last six Premier League games (D2 L3), beating West Ham 4-1 in January. Indeed, 43% of the Foxes league defeats this season have come in these six matches (3/7).
Norwich have lost all 15 of their Premier League games this season in which they’ve conceded the first goal, the worst such record in the division this term.
Norwich have scored just 24 goals from 312 shots in the Premier League this season, giving them the lowest conversion rate in the competition this term (7.7%). Meanwhile, only Liverpool have a higher conversion rate than Leicester (14.6%).
Having scored 17 goals in his first 18 Premier League games this season, Leicester’s Jamie Vardy is without a goal in his last seven games in the competition.

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Odds correct as of 1430 GMT on 27/02/20