Joe Townsend has a preview and best bets as Wolves host Crystal Palace in the Premier League on Friday, and he's expecting it to be cagey.
Wolves v Crystal Palace
Wolves and Crystal Palace head into this meeting with near identical records after starting the season with three wins, two defeats and a draw. Sitting ninth and eighth respectively, they're separated by a solitary goal and the only teams outside the bottom seven with a negative goal-difference. It emphasises the likelihood of a tight contest at Molineux.
Nuno Espirito Santo's men let two points slip through their grasp last time out as a last-minute free-kick from Newcastle's Jacob Murphy denied them what would've been a deserved third successive 1-0 win; my scoreline of choice on Friday night.
Palace's last two performances have been poles apart, as Brighton prevented them from having a single shot in open play - their only effort came through Wilfried's Zaha's successful penalty - before Fulham gave up 14, with 10 of those on target. The freedom they were afforded by Scott Parker's defensively porous side last week will not be replicated by Wolves.
They eventually succumbed to an injury-time equaliser against Brighton in a match they deserved to lose, but that stoicism really does sum up Roy Hodgson's team. It's a trait they share with their next opponent.
As detailed in this week's Premier League: Punting Pointers, 13 of the last 20 top-flight fixtures have involved under 2.5 goals as managers have become more circumspect and defences have belatedly got up to speed.
This has all the hallmarks of being a closely-fought encounter.
Wolves' last three matches have seen under 2.5 goals - they were moments from it being under 1.5 - and it's now happened in 17 of their past 20 outings in all competitions, so it's no surprise to see that priced at 4/7.
While those odds offer little incentive, the 2/1 for a goal fewer is far more appealing if you're willing to accept an uncomfortable 90 minutes of viewing - one bonus of the pay-per-view era is that you probably won't be watching. Under 1.5 goals has landed in nine of the Old Gold's past 20 fixtures, so in a match against an equally cagey opponent it looks like a smart play.
Another pointer when it comes to Nuno's team is their consistency to arrive at the break goalless.
They're on a three-match streak, returning to the consistency of 2019/20 which saw them reach half-time at 0-0, in eight of their final 13 fixtures. Four of those 'failures' made it beyond 41 minutes too, so against a well-organised team such as Palace I'm happy to take 6/4.
Score prediction: Wolves 1-0 Crystal Palace (Sky Bet odds: 9/2)
Best bets:
Odds correct on 0900 BST (29/10/20)
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