Jake Pearson picks out his best bets for Thursday evening as Sheffield United face Manchester United and Aston Villa host Burnley.
Football betting tips: Thursday's Premier League
1pt Burnley to beat Aston Villa at 19/5
1pt Under 6 Manchester United corners v Sheffield United at 11/8
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Aston Villa v Burnley betting tips
- 18:00 GMT on Amazon Prime Video
- Match odds: Home 8/11 | Draw 14/5 | Away 18/5
Burnley currently occupy 17th position in the Premier League, having amassed just nine points from 11 matches, and that might be surprising to some, but the Clarets have actually been notoriously slow starters over the past couple of seasons.
Eleven matches into last season, Burnley had won 12 points, just three more than they currently have, and by this point in the 2018/19 season, they actually had one point fewer.
Things certainly turned around for them in those campaigns, and already Burnley look to have turned the corner this term, picking up eight points from their last five matches.
The only blip in that period was a 5-0 hammering at the hands of Manchester City, but that result is probably best overlooked given Burnley’s recent record against them – conceding 20 goals in their last five meetings with City in the Premier League.
Sean Dyche’s side picked themselves up impressively after that defeat however, holding Everton to a 1-1 draw, before beating Arsenal away from home for the first time since 1974.
Burnley’s main problem this season has been in attack, the Lancashire team scoring just six times in 11 matches – the second-lowest return in the division – but four of those goals have come away from home. This should offer encouragement to the Clarets as although Aston Villa have performed unquestionably well this season, their record at Villa Park leaves plenty to be desired.
Villa have picked up 18 points this term, but only six of those have come at home, and a large share of the blame for that must sit with the defence; only Newcastle, Fulham and West Brom having conceded more home goals than Villa.
Aston Villa will be riding high after their 1-0 win over Wolves, but that game could have been very different had Nuno Espirito Santos’ men converted one of their many chances, with Villa looking a little bereft of ideas for much of the game.
Dean Smith’s side have struggled most when the onus has been on them to take the game to the opposition, and that will certainly be the case in this fixture, with Burnley more than happy to sit in and wait for an opportunity.
Aston Villa look really short at 8/11. In fact, this is just the second time all season they have been odds-on. The only other time was at home to Leeds back in October, a game they lost 3-0.
Some of the betting trends don’t really match up here, either. Take Villa’s game at home to Brighton last month for example. When the two sides met, Brighton had just six points to their name, averaging 0.75 points per match, but Aston Villa could be backed at around 5/4.
Here, they meet a Burnley side who are averaging 0.82 points per match, yet Villa are significantly shorter in the betting.
Aston Villa should be favourites to win this match, but not by the margin they are, and Burnely’s current price of 19/5 is just too big to pass up, so it is Sean Dyche’s team who get the vote to continue their improvement and come away with all three points.
Score prediction: Aston Villa 0-1 Burnley (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Aston Villa v Burnley best bets
Sheffield United v Manchester United betting tips
- 20:00 GMT on Amazon Prime Video
- Match odds: Home 13/2 | Draw 7/2 | Away 2/5
Sheffield United host Manchester United at Bramall Lane on Thursday evening, and it is hardly the most straightforward match to assess from a betting perspective.
Sheffield United have endured a torrid start, picking up just one point from a possible 36, and after Sunday’s performance against Southampton, it is difficult to see just where that first win is going to come from.
They registered their second-lowest expected goals tally of the season against the Saints, managing to generate just 0.27xGF from the three shots they could muster up, and this has been a recurring theme for the Blades, scoring just five times in their 12 matches this season.
If last season was a dream for Blades fans, then this season is rapidly turning into a nightmare.
As for Manchester United, is anybody really sure if Ole Gunnar Solskjær’s side are having a good season or not?
United are currently eighth in the Premier League, five points off leaders Tottenham with a game in hand, and on top of that, they boast the best away record in the division, winning all five of their matches on the road. Oddly though, they have failed to score first in either of those games, coming from behind to win on all five occasions.
United’s slow starts have been well documented, and sooner or later they must begin a football match like a cohesive unit, rather than a Sunday league team after a night out, but time and time again they fail to impress in the first half.
Hopefully this theme continues, as our selection hinges on Ole’s men being pretty slow out of the blocks.
There is little value in the win-draw-win market, and the goals markets also look a little on the stringy side, so it could be worth delving into the stats betting for this game, and the bet that immediately catches the eye is Manchester United to have under six corners.
The average number of corners for away sides in the Premier League this season is 4.5, and while Manchester United have averaged slightly more than that, it is not by much, winning a total of 23 corners in their five away matches (4.6 match average).
At home this season, Sheffield United have conceded 29 corners in their six matches – that’s an average of 5.5 corners conceded per game.
If you were to price this market up based purely on the corner stats from the season – taking the average number of corners that Sheffield United concede at home, along with the average number of corners Manchester United win away – the probability of Manchester United winning less than 6 corners comes out at roughly 60%.
Now, there are clearly other elements to factor in here, but the disparity between that probability and the 11/8 on offer looks too big, so, with the help of another sluggish start from Solskjær’s men, backing Manchester United to win less than six corners looks like the way to go.
Score prediction: Sheffield United 1-1 Manchester United (Sky Bet price: 7/1)
Sheffield United 1-1 Manchester United best bets
Odds correct at 1615 GMT (15/12/20)
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