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Free Europa League football betting tips: Thursday December 3 including LASK v Tottenham; Arsenal v Rapid Vienna
The Europa League continues on Thursday and Tom Carnduff has four best bets for games involving Arsenal, Leicester and Tottenham.
Recommended bets
2pts Leicester to beat Zorya and over 2.5 goals in the match at 6/4
1pt Carlos Vinicius to assist 1+ goals in LASK v Tottenham at 3/1
1pt Arsenal to win from behind against Rapid Vienna at 15/2
0.5pts Nicolas Pepe to assist Reiss Nelson and Reiss Nelson to assist Nicolas Pepe at 66/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Arsenal v Rapid Vienna
- 20:00 GMT on BT Sport 2
- Match odds: Home 4/9 | Draw 19/5 | Away 5/1
Like Leicester, we've found ourselves looking negatively at Arsenal's recent results. They did beat Molde 3-0, an expected result, but Wolves won 2-1 at the Emirates and Leeds should have comfortably beaten them in their contest at Elland Road; the Gunners somehow got a point in a 0-0 draw.
This should be a game that ends in victory for Arsenal, the look of this group means that anything less than 18 points could be viewed as a tad disappointing, even if that does sound harsh, but it may not be as easy as they will hope for.
Rapid Vienna bring goals, it's a regular feature in their games across all competitions. Nine of their last ten outings have seen both teams scoring and we can expect the same to happen here; the 8/15 price is worth inclusion in any Thursday BTTS accumulators.
A bet that was included in the last preview but didn't win, although it should have given a glaring miss from Molde in the first-half, was Arsenal to win from behind. Given this week's opponent, and the price available, it's one that I am confident enough to stick with.
Sky Bet provide the best price of 15/2 for that to happen. Rapid have scored the first goal in their last three games in all competitions while Arsenal conceded first against Wolves and Aston Villa, while they should have gone behind against Leeds. If it wasn't for that incredible miss, they would have been behind at Molde.
HOW?pic.twitter.com/8bRxWR8sNl
— Tom Carnduff (@TomC_22) November 26, 2020
Elsewhere, a huge price in a market that looks quite interesting is the 'Return the Favour' with Sky Bet. This is backing two players to provide a goal and assist for each other and I fancy a small play on Nicolas Pepe to assist Reiss Nelson and Reiss Nelson to assist Nicolas Pepe at 66/1.
Of course, it's a big ask, that is why it's 66/1, but Pepe was a strong performer in that win in Molde and should get another start here given his Premier League suspension. Mikel Arteta didn't want to freeze him out of the side given that suspension and he repaid the faith with a goal last week.
That extended Pepe's scoring run to three games in this competition and he's making the most of the weaker opposition, while he also has two assists on his tally. On the opposite wing should be Reiss Nelson, a player who has seen increased minutes in recent weeks and scored in the win at Molde.
He has started two Europa League games, playing the full 90 minutes in both, while he was a second-half substitute in their previous Premier League contests with Wolves and Leeds. His record with Arsenal's under-23s is a better indicator of what we can expect, Nelson has 18 goals and eleven assists which shows he isn't all about scoring goals.
This is a game that should end in a home win and should contain goals. Arsenal's price for success with over 3.5 goals is just 13/8. With that in mind, it's worth gambling on Rapid grabbing the first goal and the Gunners having to come from behind to win the game, with Nelson and Pepe heavily involved in the action.
Score prediction: Arsenal 3-1 Rapid Vienna (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Best bet: Arsenal to win from behind against Rapid Vienna at 15/2
Best bet: Nicolas Pepe to assist Reiss Nelson and Reiss Nelson to assist Nicolas Pepe at 66/1
Opta facts
- Arsenal have won both their previous home games against Austrian opponents, with this their first such game since beating Austria Wien 6-1 in the 1991-92 European Cup.
- Rapid Wien have lost three of their four away games against English opponents in all competitions, though they did win their last such visit 3-2 against Aston Villa in August 2010.
- Having won all four of their group stage games to this season’s UEFA Europa League, Arsenal are looking to win each of their first five matches to a season in major European competition (excluding qualifiers) for only the second time, having last done so in the 2005-06 UEFA Champions League. They went on to reach that competition’s final in that season.
- Having won both of their last two UEFA Europa League games, Rapid Wien are looking to win three in a row in the competition for the first time since November 2015 (four).
- Joe Willock has been directly involved in five goals in his last three UEFA Europa League games for Arsenal, scoring two and assisting three.
LASK v Tottenham
- 17:55 GMT on BT Sport 2
- Match odds: Home 19/5 | Draw 3/1 | Away 4/6
You did well to avoid falling asleep during Tottenham's 0-0 draw at Chelsea on Sunday but it was a typical Jose Mourinho plan executed as he would have wanted. Spurs travelled to Stamford Bridge with the aim of restricting Chelsea's chances and they left with a crucial point.
The attention now turns back to the Europa League as they look to top the group. Victory over LASK will take it to a winner-takes-all contest against Antwerp on matchday six, which you'd fancy Tottenham to win. They are odds-on for victory here and it's difficult to argue against what we have seen from them so far.
Mourinho has demonstrated a preference for this competition in his team selection. A number of first team players have been involved throughout and he isn't afraid to use his star players when he needs to. However, there should be one or two changes and one player who can expect to play some part is Carlos Vinicius.
Premier League minutes have been limited, which is perhaps expected as he came in to play backup to Harry Kane, but the Europa League has allowed him time on the pitch and he has made an impact. He scored a brace against Ludogorets and it would be harsh to completely exclude him after that performance.
Those showings demonstrate that he has an understanding of the way that Tottenham play, and while he has two goals on his Spurs record, the fact that Vinicius also has three assists is the best example that he can come in and try to play a similar role to Kane.
Kane has reached the next level under Mourinho, that's something we saw the Tottenham boss promise in a meeting shown on the Amazon documentary, and we are regularly seeing him drop deeper to find passes out to the wide players; Son Heung-min has particularly benefitted and the duo have become a Fantasy Football dream.
The difference between Kane and Vinicius in this system is that we are used to seeing Kane drop that bit deeper, while the latter can become the playmaker in a more advanced position. Vinicius clearly has a generous side though and regularly looks to play in team mates in better positions to score.
At 3/1, the price of an assist on Thursday night looks great value given how Tottenham are expected to strike a couple of times at least. Compared with the 13/10 on a goal anytime, a Vinicius assist is much more appealing in a game that Spurs should win fairly comfortably.
Score prediction: LASK 1-3 Tottenham (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Best bet: Carlos Vinicius to assist 1+ goals at 3/1
Opta facts
- LASK have lost all three of their previous meetings with English opponents, going down 0-5 in their only such home game against Manchester United in last season’s UEFA Europa League.
- Tottenham are unbeaten in all five of their previous meetings with Austrian opponents (W4 D1), with this their first such visit since a 1-0 win at SV Stockerau in August 1991.
- Since the start of last season (excluding qualifiers), LASK have won five of their seven home games in the UEFA Europa League (L2), although they did lose their most recent home game in the competition (0-2 v Royal Antwerp).
- Spurs have the joint-highest expected goals total of any team in the UEFA Europa League this term (10.48, along with Napoli), while they’ve scored at least three goals in all but one of their games in the competition this season (0-1 defeat to Royal Antwerp).
- No side has had more pressed sequences (95) or shot-ending high turnovers (eight) than LASK in the UEFA Europa League this season. Meanwhile, only Real Sociedad (33) have had more high turnovers overall than Tottenham Hotspur’s 32.
Zorya v Leicester
- 17:55 GMT on BT Sport 1
- Match odds: Home 18/5 | Draw 29/10 | Away 3/4
Another English team away from home but odds-on for victory are Leicester, who needs a positive performance and result here after a couple of weeks of disappointing returns. A 95th minute equaliser rescued a point at Braga with league defeats coming against Liverpool and Fulham.
The situation is still good for the Foxes. They have progressed to the knockout stages and top the group with two games remaining. Victory here will all-but-secure first place in Group G and they can put recent disappointment behind them with victory here.
Questions will be asked if Leicester fail to get past a Zorya side who sit eighth of 14 in the Ukrainian league. It's also worth noting that the hosts have won just one of their last six at home. Leicester should extend that run to seven.
Brendan Rodgers' side were in great form before losing at Anfield. They had won six on the bounce in all competitions, scoring at least two goals in four of those games, and we can expect them to find to strike a few times in what should be an away win here.
Even in dropping points at Braga, Leicester still scored three and they did find the net in Monday's home defeat against Fulham. In fact, that Liverpool game was the only contest in their last nine where they have failed to score. Zorya may be enjoying a three-game clean sheet run, but that should come to an end against a team of Leicester's quality.
Both of Zorya's home games in the Europa League have seen over 2.5 goals with the result going in the opponent's favour. The same goals target has been hit in both of Leicester's away contests and they remain the top scorers in the group with 12. Zorya join AEK in conceding the most with nine against.
Rather than taking Leicester's odds-on 3/4 price for victory, it's worth squeezing out the extra value and taking them to win with over 2.5 goals in the contest. That takes the best price to a much more attractive 6/4, with around 11/8 available with the majority of bookmakers.
Score prediction: Zorya 1-2 Leicester (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Best bet: Leicester to win and over 2.5 goals at 6/4
Opta facts
- Zorya Luhansk have lost all three of their European meetings with English opponents without scoring, including a 0-3 loss against Leicester in the reverse fixture on MD1.
- Leicester’s 3-0 win in the reverse of this fixture on MD1 was their first ever meeting with Ukrainian opposition.
- Zorya’s 3-0 win at AEK Athens last week halted their six game losing run in the UEFA Europa League (excluding qualifiers), recording their first three points since October 2017, which was also the last time they managed back-to-back wins in the competition.
- Only Arsenal and TSG Hoffenheim (both 12) have amassed more UEFA Europa League points than Leicester this season (10), with only three other sides scoring more goals than the Foxes (12).
- Kelechi Iheanacho was involved in all three of Leicester’s goals in their 3-0 win against Zorya Luhansk in the reverse fixture, scoring one and assisting two.
Odds correct at 1230 GMT (01/12/20)
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