The Europa League continues on Thursday with Arsenal, Leicester and Tottenham in action. Tom Carnduff picks out three best bets.
Recommended bets
2pts Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals in Ludogorets v Tottenham at 11/10
1pt Draw at half-time in Arsenal v Molde at 19/10
1pt James Maddison to score anytime in Leicester v Braga at 7/2
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Ludogorets v Tottenham
- 17:55 GMT on BT Sport 2
- Match odds: Home 7/1 | Draw 19/5 | Away 4/11
✅ Lokomotiv Moscow to score at 11/10
— Sporting Life Football (@SportingLifeFC) November 4, 2020
✅ Lucas Hernandez anytime scorer at 22/1
✅ Manchester City to win and under 3.5 goals at 6/4
✅ Chelsea (-1 handicap) to beat Rennes at 7/5
✅ Rafael to make 3+ tackles at 11/10
🎉 A good week so far for @JoesterT and @TomC_22!#UCL pic.twitter.com/gdopDBtop3
Tottenham's flying start to the campaign was disrupted by defeat to Antwerp but they bounced back with victory over Brighton at the weekend. Another away trip awaits here, but one they can grab all three points in given how Ludogorets have seen mixed fortunes in recent weeks.
They sit top of the Bulgarian league following a strong start but have lost both of their Europa League contests. That leaves them bottom of Group J; they need to begin picking up points as soon as possible or they could find themselves trying to make up a six-point gap with three games remaining.
Spurs have actually been really impressive considering their congested start to the campaign. Qualifying for this competition went alongside playing in the Carabao Cup and, of course, the Premier League. Playing every other day is far from ideal but they found a way to get results.
With Spurs so heavily fancied, the value comes in backing the goals with both teams expected to find the net at some point in the night. Tottenham's win at Burnley was the first time they managed to keep a clean sheet on the road this season - all four games before saw both teams scoring with over 2.5 goals.
That is a bet worth following here when we also factor in Ludogorets' showings. Both of their Europa League games have hit the same target while they have found the net in their last eight home contests. They are on a 13-game scoring run and that can continue against a Tottenham side expected to make a few changes.
Jose Mourinho may be tempted to go with a strong forward line after they failed to strike against Antwerp with dropped points here potentially leaving them in a bit of a dangerous position at this stage. Spurs are 1/20 to score once, 4/11 to hit two, and the money is firmly behind them being on the scoresheet.
Ludogorets have four on their tally from a combined xG rate of 2.56 while Tottenham have three from an xG of 3.43. Both can create opportunities and find the net; it should be a highly entertaining game in the early kick-off in Bulgaria.
Score prediction: Ludogorets 1-2 Tottenham (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Best bet: Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals at 11/10
Opta facts
- Ludogorets and Tottenham have never previously met in European competition.
- This will be Ludogorets’ fifth game against English opposition, losing three of those other four matches, the other being a 2-2 draw at home to Liverpool in the UEFA Champions League in November 2014.
- Spurs had never previously faced Bulgarian opposition but will do so for the second time in the space of two months having already faced Lokomotiv Plovdiv during the qualification stages of this competition in September, winning 2-1 away from home.
- Ludogorets have only won one of their last 11 home matches in the UEFA Europa League (D4 L6), a 5-1 victory against CSKA Moscow in September 2019.
- Spurs have only lost back to back UEFA Europa League group stage games once previously, losing to Rubin Kazan and PAOK Salonika in November 2011.
Arsenal v Molde
- 20:00 GMT on BT Sport 2
- Match odds: Home 3/10 | Draw 17/4 | Away 8/1
Arsenal should comfortably win Group B and they've started in perfect fashion with victory over Rapid Vienna and Dundalk. The likelihood is that they will progress with Molde, and perhaps the Norwegian side will pose their toughest test in this competition so far.
Even then, the odds are heavily in Arsenal's favour and Mikel Arteta's men should make it three wins from three which would make them almost certain to progress to the knockout stages. It won't be easy though, and the odds make it seem like it will be a comfortable home win.
They may well end up winning with a couple of goals' margin but they may have to be patient as they look to find a way through this Molde side. With Arsenal a very short 3/10 for success, the best value comes in the 19/10 available on the half-time result being a draw.
Removing that Dundalk result, where Arsenal were an even shorter price to win, games against Manchester United, Leicester (twice), Rapid Vienna, Sheffield United, Liverpool and West Ham have all been level at the break for Arteta's side.
For Molde, we can say the same for their recent success of Vienna, while league contests against Stromgodset and Brann in October were also draws at half-time. It wouldn't be a surprise to see this game follow a similar pattern in terms of the first 45 minutes.
Arsenal's price isn't even really worth inclusion in any Thursday accumulators and the better outright based option comes in taking under 3.5 goals at a better looking 8/11. Only one of Arsenal's seven Premier League games has seen four or more goals, while it's around 50% for Molde but in a division where they are stronger than most opponents.
At a near 2/1 though, taking the draw at half-time is too big to turn down based on the track record of the hosts. The Gunners will have to wait for that first goal to come, but as long as it ends in three points they won't mind when they get onto the scoresheet.
Score prediction: Arsenal 1-0 Molde (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
Best bet: Half-time draw at 19/10
Opta facts
- Arsenal will face Molde for the very first time in this match. The Gunners have won three of their four matches against Norwegian opponents (D1).
- Arsenal’s last match against Norwegian opposition was a 5-1 win against Rosenborg in the UEFA Champions League in December 2004, with goals from José Antonio Reyes, Thierry Henry, Cesc Fàbregas, Robert Pires and Robin van Persie.
- This will be Molde’s first meeting with English opponents; Norwegian sides have never beaten English opposition away from home, drawing twice and losing 20 times, with a goal difference of -87 (13 scored, 100 conceded).
- Molde have won four of their last six away matches in the UEFA Europa League (D1 L1), beating Scottish (Celtic) and Irish (Dundalk) opponents on this run.
- Since the start of the 2018-19 season, only Munas Dabbur (13) has scored more goals in the UEFA Europa League than Arsenal striker Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (12).
Leicester v Braga
- 20:00 GMT on BT Sport 1
- Match odds: Home 4/5 | Draw 5/2 | Away 10/3
Leicester secured a fantastic victory over Leeds on Monday night and they will be looking to make it three from three in the Europa League as they welcome Braga. Both sides sit on six points and both will hold hopes of finishing top of Group G.
Braga have been in fine form. Their last six contests have all ended in victory and they will travel to the King Power Stadium with confidence. Perhaps crucially with Leicester's current injury issues in defence, Braga have netted at least two goals in four of those games and should hit the 8/15 available on them scoring here.
Leicester's 4/5 price on victory looks decent enough, even with Braga's good form, and they are worth inclusion in those Europa League accumulators. They are a side playing with confidence and have demonstrated an ability to win in a few different ways.
With the Foxes odds-on, it's worth siding with a player mentioned last week in James Maddison to score anytime at an attractive price of 7/2. He's started both of their Europa League contests and an appearance from the bench at Elland Road suggests another start here.
The attacking threat that he possesses when in the starting line-up is clear. His three starts in all competitions so far have brought at least three shots in each with a goal against Zorya. Leicester managed just six shots in their win at Arsenal, Maddison had four of them.
It may not be the highest scoring contest of the night but we can expect at least a couple. The Foxes being 1/6 to find the net shows how they are expected to strike and, given Maddison's position on the pitch and his price, the 7/2 available with some bookmakers, alongside the near 3/1 across the board, is just a tad too generous.
The hosts look good value to move onto nine points on Thursday night but the 5/6 on 2+ Leicester goals looks another decent option; the Foxes have shown that they don't need plenty of opportunities to strike. The best bet of the game though comes in taking Maddison to score if he is in the starting line-up.
Score prediction: Leicester 2-1 Braga (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Best bet: James Maddison to score anytime at 7/2
Opta facts
- This will be the first ever European fixture between Leicester City and Braga.
- Leicester’s only previous meeting with Portuguese opposition came in their 2016-17 UEFA Champions League campaign – they beat Porto 1-0 at home in the group stages but lost 0-5 in Portugal.
- Leicester have only been beaten once at home in all European competitions (W6 D3), falling 0-2 to Atlético de Madrid in September 1997 in a UEFA Cup tie.
- Since the start of last season, Braga striker Paulinho has scored six goals in the UEFA Europa League from just eight shots on target.
- Leicester have won five of their last six home matches in European competition (D1), keeping a clean sheet in four of those victories.
Odds correct at 1230 GMT (03/11/20)
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