Tottenham take on West Ham in the Premier League on Thursday night and we've got three tips for the Wembley showdown.
Tottenham v West Ham (2000 GMT, Sky Sports Premier League & Main Event)
My colleague David John landed another winner by correctly tipping Tottenham to win by two clear goals at Swansea on Tuesday night.
It was their sixth victory in seven games (a run only punctuated by a 4-1 loss at Manchester City) and all six of those wins has been by at least two clear goals.
They are 5/6 to repeat the trick here, a price which will be seriously considered in many quarters given the goals Spurs have scored of late, not to mention a mounting West Ham injury list which has left Aaron Cresswell, Michail Antonio, Andre Ayew and Reece Oxford all doubtful for this one. They add to several longer-term absentees, including James Collins and Jose Fonte.
That said, confidence is high in the Hammers’ camp right now and they have dealt with such adversity over Christmas and New Year well thus far.
They’ve collected 11 points from the last 18 available in the Premier League with David Moyes managing to get a real response from a set of players who simply didn’t look up for the fight during the dying days of Slaven Bilic’s reign.
Away from home, they’ve scored three times at both Stoke and Bournemouth, winning the former game at a canter – it could easily have been a wider margin – while only a controversial late decision from the officials denied them victory in the latter.
They’ve also already beaten Spurs at Wembley this season, coming from two down to win 3-2 in the Carabao Cup, so I’m not prepared to back Spurs at odds-on to win by two clear goals, no matter how good Harry Kane (scorer of seven goals in his last six league games v West Ham) may be.
As you’d imagine, there were plenty of changes made to teams for that League Cup tie in October which will lead some to dismiss the result, but you can expect several more in this one too.
Both sides played on Tuesday night, notably in tricky conditions. West Ham beat West Brom 2-1, while Spurs won 2-0 at Swansea on a pretty dreadful pitch. Those games will undoubtedly have taken plenty out of some of the players involved in this one.
It is with fatigue in mind that I make my first suggestion, namely for there to be a goal in the period between the 76th minute and full time.
West Brom boss Alan Pardew felt weary legs were behind his side’s late concession on Tuesday and I would not be surprised to see something similar occur in what looks set to be a hard-fought contest.
Spurs’ last seven games have seen goals in this time period, while three of West Ham’s last five also have.
Those are strong stats and with plenty of football in the legs of all involved following the hectic festive programme, the 24/25 (MarathonBet) looks worth taking.
Tiredness could also play a part in many tackles and while the officials may take this into account, I find it hard to believe the cards will stay in Mike Dean’s pocket for long.
This is often a combustible fixture. There were seven yellows and a red when the duo met at the London Stadium earlier in the campaign, while last season’s league meetings saw six yellows in both, with one red thrown in for good measure.
The way I’m looking to profit is by backing two likely contenders for cards.
Having returned to action as a substitute at Swansea, Victor Wanyama is widely expected to start for Spurs in the midfield and he’s no angel on the disciplinary front.
Last season the Kenyan had 12 cards in 47 games. It was six yellow and three red in 2015/16 and the season before that 12 cards in 38 appearances.
In what will be his first start since August, there’s every chance he’s slightly rusty and that brings the added chance of a mis-timed tackle.
I’m going to couple him up in an anytime card double with the visitors’ Mark Noble, a player at the very heart of his club. Local lad done good, Noble will know full well what a clash with Spurs means to the Irons – and his history in this fixture suggests he’s usually well up for it.
The midfielder has been carded in seven of his least 13 league games against Tottenham which is well above his career average against all opponents.
There's 10/1 on offer about both being carded which seems perfectly fair given the fatigue circumstances and the fact that Dean is in charge.
He’s far from shy of showing a card – he produced 11 in one match earlier this season and more recently has shown at least four in five of his last seven games. One of those was another derby – Arsenal v Spurs – which saw five yellows.
One final thought – it could be worth taking a chance on Marko Aranautovic to continue his goalscoring form.
His renaissance since Moyes’ arrival is no coincidence and the Austrian has now bagged five goals in his last six starts. That followed a run of 13 appearances without a goal since the start of the season. His goal run has included strikes in both aforementioned away games, at Stoke and Bournemouth.
He’s north of 5/1 with Unibet and 888sport about adding to his tally here which just looks too big. Spurs’ defence remains without it’s star man, Toby Alderweireld, and should be tested at times.
Even if they are forced onto the back foot for much of this game, West Ham can offer a threat on the break – as they did against Manchester City last month – and Arnautovic will be crucial to any such counter-attacking play.
Prediction: Tottenham 2-1 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
Recommended bets
2pts last goal to be scored between 76th minute and full time at 24/25
1pt Victor Wanyama and Mark Noble both to be carded at 10/1
1pt Marko Arnautovic to score at any time at 51/10
Posted at 2100 GMT on 03/01/08.
