A Chelsea team attacking with careless abandon versus a Manchester City team with error-prone defenders. An in-form visiting side against world-class hosts in desperate need of three points. Saturday’s game at the Etihad is deserving of its hype.
No matter the two managers’ initial intentions, this one seems destined to be an open and entertaining match with constant goalmouth action. Frank Lampard’s young side usually can’t help themselves and will, like Lampard the player, burst forward in attack should they go 1-0 down. Similarly, City – desperate not to lose further ground on Liverpool - will need to significantly open up if the visitors take the lead. As long as it doesn’t cautiously wear on at 0-0, we are in for one of the games of the season.
Will Man City be scarred by the 3-1 defeat at Anfield or be galvanised by it? Can Pep Guardiola change his usual approach and launch quick counter-attacks that exploit Chelsea’s awkward transitions? And will Chelsea go for broke in Manchester or sit deeper, as they did against Liverpool in the Super Cup?
There are plenty of unknowns, but analysis of their respective trends in 2019/20 suggests each team’s tactical weaknesses correlates exactly with the other’s strengths. it’ll be breathless stuff.
The shape of the game: Chelsea will be cautious off the ball - but bold on it
Against Liverpool at Stamford Bridge Chelsea held their own despite falling to a 2-1 defeat, winning the territorial battle (55%) thanks to a surge of assertive football towards the end of the first half when 2-0 down and throughout the second, N’Golo Kante’s goal causing Liverpool to retreat. It is likely Chelsea will be more cautious away from home (as in the 2-2 draw in the Super Cup, when they sat deeper to frustrate Liverpool), but nevertheless their games against Jurgen Klopp’s side tell us Lampard will not cower.
Their youthful energy, assisted by Lampard giving licence to roam and create freely, means Chelsea won’t be able to resist pushing forward when the opportunity arises. They will inevitably win throw-ins and freekicks with some direct dribbling, gaining yards and momentum, and certainly in possession Chelsea will look to play through Man City.
Off the ball, their shape will be more conservative; the defensive line will drop significantly deeper while the wingers will drop to make a 4-5-1, sitting right off the City full-backs and daring Guardiola’s men to break through a congested, compressed final third.
The overall shape of the match, then, should be an even territorial battle as Chelsea attempt to get bodies forward and then quickly snap into a lower block. There is no doubt this will trigger an open game, targeting City’s weak spots but also leaving them vulnerable to Guardiola’s favoured attacking methods.
Where Chelsea can hurt City: error-prone CBs, a flat midfield, & overworked full-backs
Lampard’s basic approach is to get the ball forward quickly with straight passes from centre-backs and central midfielders, the inverted wingers in a 4-2-3-1 cutting inside to create overloads in central attacking midfield and receive piercing vertical passes to feet. Dribble often and at goal is the mantra, creating triangles in the final third between Willian, Mason Mount, and Christian Pulisic.
This focus down the middle of the park could do significant damage at City, who have developed a soft centre this season; with Fernandinho deputising in central defence, Rodri or Ilkay Gundogan are having to patrol the base of midfield and neither have the agility, tackling, or reading of the game to cope with Chelsea’s overload of bodies in the number ten space.
But Chelsea also funnel a lot down the left channel, where Emerson overlaps to join Pulisic and Mount. When the centre is blocked with bodies (and assuming Chelsea are aggressive, there will be times City are pushed back into a narrow shape), Lampard’s side are adept at piling pressure onto the opposition right-back – which happens to be a weak spot for Guardiola. Kyle Walker rarely receives help from a right winger, while right-leaning Kevin de Bruyne can be slow to get across.
A lack of cover on that side isn’t usually an issue for City, but if Chelsea get their counter-attacks right then huge gaps behind the home side’s defensive line will appear – first on the left, and then in the centre when City are dragged out of position.
Finally, and most obviously, City’s error-prone centre-backs can be got at. Norwich, Wolves, and Liverpool have expertly exploited the chaos so far this season by sprinting in full force at City’s zig-zag line. Their basic positional disorganisation should worry City fans given Pulisic, Tammy Abraham, Willian, and Mount will make confusing diagonal runs around them.
Where City can hurt Chelsea: weak transitions, overcommitted full-backs, & poor hold-up play
But Chelsea’s ability to evade the City press, counter-attack at speed, and expose a brittle central midfield and central defence could, in turn, hand Guardiola’s side an advantage overall. The more territory Chelsea gain, the more vulnerable they become.
Chelsea’s defensive record has improved as the season goes on, but this merely reflects an improvement at set-pieces (Lampard has recently switched from zonal marking to mixed) and an inferiority complex among relegation-candidate opposition. Bigger clubs continue to find Chelsea too expansive - too fanned out across the width and depth of the pitch – whenever they win the ball. Lampard’s team can’t handle transitions, spreading too erratically when attacking to then successfully re-compress when they lose possession.
Man City can certainly copy how Manchester United beat Chelsea 4-0 on the opening day, although to do so Guardiola needs to let his players counter-attack in a more disordered fashion rather than recycle possession and regain shape (as they usually do). If they change tack, with De Bruyne dropping deep to shift the ball quickly upfield, then N’Golo Kante’s performance will be crucial.
That Emerson and Cesar Azpilicueta so often pour forward in attack also helps Man City, who will surely find the space on the flanks to throw crosses into the box – a new tactical approach of theirs for 2019/20. City attempted a remarkable 62 against Southampton recently and top the Premier League charts for total crosses, with 323. As the balls fly into the danger zone, the mismatch between Sergio Aguero and still-adapting Fikayo Tomori could be telling.
Finally, City could prevent this match from becoming disordered by simply pinning Chelsea back, and indeed Guardiola’s complex high press is always capable of shutting down an opposition counter. Abraham’s poor hold-up play was starkly evident in the 2-1 defeat to Liverpool when the England striker failed to get Chelsea going; they improved territorially and creatively only when he was replaced in the 71st minute. If Abraham is bullied, the visitors will struggle to break out.
