After their first Premier League defeat of the season at Watford on Saturday, Alex Keble looks at why talk of Liverpool dominance could be a little premature.
When Liverpool eventually lift the Premier League title in spring the catharsis, the relief, will instantly dismiss all of the more pessimistic takes on their success. Some will say Liverpool’s ludicrous points gap makes their triumph an anti-climax, highlighting the unusually low quality of the 2019/20 season, or, worse still, that it shows football’s wealth divide is creating monopolies.
Both arguments seek to undermine the achievement. Both are wrong.
Only two or three Liverpool players were bought for fees outside the price bracket available to most Premier League clubs, with the majority arriving as decent but unspectacular prospects from mid-table sides.
Manchester City’s extraordinary financial outlay and subsequent success, coupled with Liverpool’s points tally closely aligning with the sort we have seen from super-clubs in Spain, Germany, and Italy, has distorted perceptions of what Jurgen Klopp has built.
It is easy to see why pundits are scrambling to find ways to explain the phenomenon, why it is comforting to say the Premier League is weak this year. Liverpool’s campaign has been scarcely believable, an anomaly of such extraordinary magnitude that we look for external factors to excuse their behaviour.
But there really aren’t any. This team has been built organically, and although the rest of the ‘Big Six’ are having relatively poor seasons the league as a whole is unusually strong.
Liverpool are just that good; perhaps the best team in the history of world football.
But that does not mean this is the beginning of a dynasty, as many have suggested. It is all too common to predict the end of history, to predict stasis, despite football constantly reacting against expectations.
Less than 12 months ago, when Man City beat Watford 6-0 in an alarmingly one-sided FA Cup final, the prevailing wisdom said Pep Guardiola’s side would dominate for years to come and that Liverpool would fade after a single anomalous campaign.
What a difference a year makes. City will start next season without Champions League football, on the back of their worst season (in terms of points won) since Guardiola’s arrival, and with a squad containing seven key players aged 30 or over.
Liverpool are much younger, but after two consecutive years at their peak it is entirely plausible results will drop off. Klopp’s Dortmund side suddenly fell off a cliff after five emotionally exhausting years, and while there is no reason to assume Liverpool are on the verge of a similar collapse, their domestic dominance is more precarious than it looks.
Twelve of their 25 league wins this season were by a single goal. Just a fractional drop off – a psychological dip that comes from having won the league already – could trigger a seismic shift.
More importantly, Man City are more likely than not to come roaring back, more motivated than ever to avenge the failures of 2019/20 and give Guardiola one final season at their best. Things might look bad now, but it’s worth noting that signing just one centre-back would restore balance to that City side, allowing Fernandinho to drop back into the middle, stabilising the defence, midfield, and attack.
City’s low points tally this season can be explained among other things by a lack of motivation, given that the title seemed beyond them as early as November. A summer reset will change all that, while disqualification from Europe will sharpen minds and keep the legs fresh.
Like Chelsea and Leicester City in recent years, Man City will be given a clean run at the Premier League title in 2020/21.
For Liverpool to continue challenging they will need several new signings, judging on the consistency with which they rely on the same few players. Divock Origi is not a long-term solution, and with Naby Keita looking to leave in the summer the Liverpool bench doesn’t look very deep at all – a particular concern given the African Cup of Nations next year means Sadio Mane and Mohamed Salah will be out of club action in January.
Klopp will be looking to replace Keita and upgrade his cover in the full-back positions, as well as sign a striker and a creative midfielder that can break the lines against deeper opponents.
That makes for a pretty busy summer, and while Liverpool’s outstanding recruitment team can generally be trusted, it is within the realms of possibility that a reshuffle will negatively impact their tactical cohesion.
That is not to say Liverpool will fail to challenge for the title in 2020/21, only that talk of a dynasty is premature. The stars aligned perfectly for Klopp’s side to dominate this year and nothing should be taken away from the genius of their deserved success.
But to repeat the feat will require major reinforcements, particularly with a rejuvenated City breathing down their neck.
Klopp’s reign at Dortmund was an explosion; a sudden rush of brilliance and a burn out that came just as quickly.
There is enough in place to prevent something quite so dramatic at Liverpool, and yet to assume the Premier League is finally set to be monopolised is equally wide of the mark.
We won’t see another season like this one for a long time. Manchester City will be back.
