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The Kelly Bet: Newcastle to test Liverpool's vulnerable defence
Following up on his Monday analysis column, The Kelly Criterion, Liam Kelly picks out value bets of interest for the Premier League weekend.
Football betting tips: The Kelly Bet
2.5pts Over 13.5 Newcastle shots vs Liverpool at 8/11 (bet365)
0.5pts Luca Koleosho to be shown a card in Burnley vs Aston Villa at 9/2 (bet365)
Monday's Kelly Criterion touched on the importance of having an idea as to how teams will play and the opportunities that specific match-ups present. Super Sunday might be a good chance to capitalise on that notion.
Newcastle's hosting of Liverpool is undoubtedly the pick of the Premier League fixtures this weekend, correctly given the prime televisual slot, and we should know what to expect from both sides by now. Eddie Howe and Jürgen Klopp encourage their teams to play football on the front foot and rarely deviate from that approach.
Scoring opportunities could be plentiful for both sides, but the 8/11 on offer for OVER 13.5 NEWCASTLE SHOTS is the bet that makes appeal at St. James' Park.
Newcastle are an incredibly energetic side and often have many attempts on goal, especially when playing at home. The Magpies registered 17 shots in their season-opening 5-1 home win over Aston Villa, but it's a trait that stretches back much further.
Newcastle 5-1 Aston Villa 📈
— Opta Analyst (@OptaAnalyst) August 12, 2023
A statement win on the opening day for Eddie Howe's team, including two goals for Alexander Isak. 🇸🇪
Sandro Tonali and Moussa Diaby both scored inside 11 minutes, the earliest a Premier League match has seen two players score on debut.#NEWAVL pic.twitter.com/rX5xhCJtXL
Last season, 14 of Newcastle's 16 highest shot totals came in home fixtures, averaging 18.1 shots per game at St. James' Park. They failed to breach the 13.5 line only four times as hosts — against Manchester City, Arsenal, Chelsea and West Ham.
Liverpool continue to look vulnerable from a defensive standpoint, fielding a very forward-thinking midfield, and it's an area that Newcastle can exploit considering their style of play.
Additionally, Newcastle covered this selection at home to Liverpool last season, despite playing over 70 minutes with just 10 men. With the mindset of these two teams remaining fairly similar, 14 or more attempts from Howe's team is a confident selection.
Burnley press offers a bet
There is a small stakes bet of interest in an earlier Sunday game between Burnley and Aston Villa.
Burnley have had a two-week break between their first two league fixtures, which I believe is a positive for a newly-promoted team looking to perfect their philosophy.
Relatively impressed with the performance of Vincent Kompany's inexperienced side against Manchester City, creating high turnovers despite their 3-0 defeat to the juggernaut, I'm with the Clarets manager in thinking they will be better game-by-game.
There's no guarantee that Kompany will stick with a man-oriented press throughout the season, but it was interesting to see it deployed with some success against the best team in world football last time out. Aston Villa showed some susceptibility in the pressure that Newcastle applied to them, which will only serve to encourage Burnley.
Zeki Amdouni and LUCA KOLEOSHO were noticeably active in the Burnley press, but I did think the latter looked a little rash in the way he applied it against City, so the standout 9/2 with bet365 TO BE SHOWN A CARD catches my eye.
While the fouls conceded odds for Koleosho might be intriguing closer to the game, I do have my concerns about whether the winger will be in the starting line-up and how many minutes he will play if he is. The option for the bet to be voided if Koleosho doesn't start makes me favour the card play.
Odds correct at 1500 BST (23/08/23)
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