Joe Townsend has a preview and best bets, including a 40/1 each-way first goalscorer, as Brighton host Burnley in the Premier League on Friday.
Recommended bets
0.5pt e.w James Tarkowski to be first goalscorer at 40/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Brighton v Burnley
- 17:30 GMT on Sky Sports Box Office
- Match odds: Home 17/20 | Draw 5/2 | Away 16/5
Brighton really are the Premier League's nearly men, promising so much but delivering so little.
Though five top-flight games without a win, it could easily be argued that Albion did enough for victory in all five - or as a bare minimum three. But the facts of the matter are this: seven matches played, one win, five points.
They suffer from the familiar problem of missing chances and failing to keep clean sheets; a good recipe for losing games.
With bottom-of-the-table Burnley the visitors on Friday evening, a side yet to win this season, we're faced with a dilemma when it comes to having an outright bet. Do we back Brighton to finally turn their performances into points, or at odds-on for victory is their lack of reliability too much of a red flag? I favour the latter.
I expect this one to be tight and will play those odds instead, although if you really pressed me I'm leaning towards the visitors.
Three of the Clarets' past five league games have seen under 2.5 goals, and only a late Gareth Bale winner for Spurs prevented the Seagulls from securing a third straight 1-1 draw.
Both were up there in last season's under 2.5 goals table, with Brighton (55%) fifth and Burnley (53%) just a place behind. Taking Bet Victor's 10/11 price with a sizeable stake feels like a smart play.
I wouldn't say Burnley's poor start has quite gone unnoticed, but thanks to the equally terribly form of several others it hasn't stood out. Win on Friday and they'll be just a point behind their 16th-placed opponents.
Bottom with only a draw to their name, having played a game fewer than the sides around them, Sean Dyche's men simply haven't got going yet. They showed signs of getting back to their old selves during a battling performance against Tottenham a fortnight ago, spurning several chances before a Harry Kane/Heung-min Son combination was their downfall.
As is often the case with a struggling team, they failed to build on that, limping to a 3-0 home defeat by Chelsea.
That Monday Night Football clash with Spurs could so nearly have been a turning point, and the closest they came to scoring at Turf Moor that evening was through centre-back James Tarkowski.
The England defender thought he'd put them ahead with a thundering header, only for Kane to spot the danger and make a brilliant clearance off the line. Moments later, the Clarets were 1-0 down.
Tarkowski has threatened to find the net in all of his appearances this season, managing at least one attempt on goal in each match, going incredibly close against West Brom and Newcastle too.
His 40/1 each-way price as first goalscorer with bet365 feels big, and one we should be taking.
Brighton have already conceded four times from set-pieces this season, and two of Burnley's three goals have come that way.
Score prediction: Brighton 0-1 Burnley (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Best bets:
Odds correct on 1030 BST (05/11/20)
Follow Sporting Life on social - find us on Facebook here or tweet @SportingLifeFC
Related football content
Responsible gambling
We are committed in our support of responsible gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133, or visit begambleaware.org.
Further support and information can be found at GamCare and gamblingtherapy.org.
