Old rivals meet in the FA Cup fifth round on Tuesday as Chelsea welcome Liverpool. George Pitts looks at the betting.
Recommended bets
0.5pt Andrew Robertson to have 1+ shots on target at 5/1
0.5pt Reece James to be carded at 6/1
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Chelsea v Liverpool
- 1945 GMT kick-off on BBC One
After such a solid season, Liverpool have now tasted defeat twice in as many weeks as they travel to Chelsea in the FA Cup.
With cup boss Neil Critchley leaving for Blackpool on Monday, Jurgen Klopp will most definitely be present for this one.
The loss in Atletico Madrid was no huge shock with the reputation Diego Simeone’s side have in front of their fans in the Spanish capital, but Vicarage Road is no fortress and very few people saw their first Premier League defeat coming on Saturday, never mind the manner in which it came.
There is nothing to say it is going any better at Chelsea, with Frank Lampard’s side failing to win their last two games. The first, a 3-0 humbling at home to Bayern Munich in the Champions League, the second a comeback at struggling Bournemouth as their run extended to just two wins in eight in all competitions.
Liverpool's youngsters have been given a run out in this so far but their line-up this time should have a blend of youth and experience, with Jurgen Klopp hinting at plenty of the latter in Monday’s press conference.
One likely starter from their full-strength team is the ever-present Andrew Robertson. The Scottish full-back has been a star down the left for the Reds, regularly providing an attacking outlet, and he is the preferred option for our headline tip.
Interestingly, of all the players on the pitch in Saturday’s defeat, Robertson was actually the only Liverpool player to register a shot on target.
His shooting stats are eye-catching – he has had four in his last five Premier League appearances and throughout the season you can see he regularly tries his luck. For example, he had 11 in his first 11 league appearances this term (three of which came in one game against Arsenal) and he has had five shots in seven appearances in the Champions League, too.
Chelsea have defensive issues and Robertson could look to exploit that, especially if he lines up against the less-experienced Reece James.
With this in mind, both prices on Robertson in the shots market are appealing. One or more shots (allowing for a blocked effort or one off target) is 15/8 while 1+ shots on target is a larger 5/1. It is the latter we will prefer for a small play.
With the same thinking in mind, the 6/1 on James to be shown a card is also worth considering. The 20-year-old full-back looks promising, but he could be busy on Tuesday and find himself caught out in the heat of the battle.
He commits an average of one foul per game in the league this term – with more than one coming against Manchester United, Brighton, Everton, Aston Villa and Crystal Palace. Whether Chelsea are seeing out a lead or left frustrated chasing the game, James could be drawn in for a caution.
He has been carded three times this season – once at home in the FA Cup – and the odds on him to be booked by referee Chris Kavanagh, who was busy dishing out seven bookings in Sunday’s draw between Everton and Man United at Goodison.
Score prediction: Chelsea 2-1 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
Best bets:
- Andrew Robertson to have 1+ shots on target at 5/1 (Sky Bet)
- Reece James to be carded at 6/1 (Unibet)
Opta stats
- This is the first FA Cup meeting between Liverpool and Chelsea since the 2012 final, which the Blues won 2-1.
- Chelsea have won six of their 10 FA Cup meetings with Liverpool, with this the first such meeting between the sides at Stamford Bridge since a 4-2 win for the Blues in January 1997, en route to winning the trophy.
- In all competitions, Chelsea have won just one of their last six home games against Liverpool (D2 L3), losing 1-2 earlier this season in the Premier League.
- This is the furthest Liverpool have progressed in the FA Cup under manager Jürgen Klopp, with the Reds last reaching this stage in the 2014-15 campaign.
- This is the fifth consecutive season Chelsea have reached this stage of the FA Cup, though they were eliminated in this round last term by Manchester United.
- Two of Liverpool’s four FA Cup goals this season have been own goals, while the other two have been netted by 19-year-old Curtis Jones.
Odds correct as of 1630 GMT on 02/03/20
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