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Free betting tips and match preview: Sky Bet Championship - Derby County v Nottingham Forest
There's a huge game in the Sky Bet Championship on Saturday as Derby welcome Nottingham Forest. Tom Carnduff picks out two best bets.
Recommended bets
1pt Sammy Ameobi to have 2+ shots on target at 7/2
1pt Nottingham Forest to have 13+ total shots at 5/4
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Derby v Nottingham Forest (Sky Sports Football, 1230 BST)
Nottingham Forest are looking secure with a seven-point gap between themselves and Derby in seventh, although the Rams have charged into the play-off picture with wins in every fixture since the break.
Forest were successful over Bristol City while Derby beat Preston last time out. Two victories over teams with play-offs aspirations aid their own promotion hopes; albeit those sides have dropped down the table in recent outings.
Derby are fancied by some to break into the play-offs and finally end their wait for promotion; the presence of Wayne Rooney in centre midfield has certainly helped. However, while they were victorious over Preston, it was a game that was fairly uneventful.
Neither side has posted an exceptional xG since the restart but Forest's 2.46 against Huddersfield reflected their dominance in that fixture. Lewis Grabban netted twice that day and he could well score again here; he already has 19 on his tally this season.
The Asian Handicap has Derby at -0.25 which reflects just how close this game is fancied to be. A point would suit Forest better than Derby, who need all three as they continue their battle for the top-six, but it does appear a contest where a draw could be the outcome.
The stats-based markets provide some appealing prices and one player who has been impressive in the wide attacking midfield role since the restart has been Sammy Ameobi. He grabbed an assist in that win over Huddersfield while also hitting the woodwork.
Remarkably, Ameobi posted a huge total of eight shots during the first meeting in November, of which two were on target, and Sky Bet make it 7/2 that he has a similar number of on target efforts here.
The last two games have seen him have a total of six shots, one on target in the win against the Terriers, and the open nature of this game will allow for opportunities at both ends.
With Grabban a shorter price, 15/8 being available on him doing the same, it's worth siding with Ameobi for the better price. He's got a decent track record of shots over the course of the season and it's worth backing him to continue that here.
On the topic of shots, as Forest are the outsiders, it is worth a play on their total team shots price with Derby fancied to outshoot them at Pride Park. Forest's 13.3 shots per game average compared with Derby's 11.6 over the course of the season suggest that this may not be the case.
Sky Bet have it at 5/4 that Forest keep to their average by having 13 or more total shots in this contest; that's a price that justifies backing given the game we are expecting.
Total shots bets rely on an attacking game and both teams will be eager to create opportunities to score. This East Midlands derby already has plenty riding on it before we factor in the current play-off picture. Who knows, this could be a fixture we watch twice more when the play-offs come around.
This does look like a fixture that is too close to call so taking the 9/4 on the draw seems the best course of action when it comes to the outright result. Both teams have talent in attack so it will provide little surprise to see both teams scoring.
Instead, going with the Forest shots, and Ameobi to be among them, provide the two best bets for this tasty early kick-off in the Sky Bet Championship.
Score prediction: Derby 1-1 Nottingham Forest (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Best bet: Sammy Ameobi to have 2+ shots on target at 7/2
Best bet: Nottingham Forest to have 13+ total shots at 5/4
Opta facts
- Derby County have lost their last two league matches against Nottingham Forest, last losing three in a row in January 1990.
- Nottingham Forest are looking to record a league double over Derby for the first time since the 2010-11 season.
- Derby have failed to score in their last four league matches against Nottingham Forest, attempting 44 shots with an expected goal tally of 3.6 without success.
- Derby average 1.9 points and a win rate of 57% in the Championship with Wayne Rooney in the team compared to 1.3 points and a 31% win rate without the English national team’s all-time goalscorer.
- Nottingham Forest have lost just one of their last eight Championship matches (W3 D4), and are unbeaten since the restart with two wins and a draw.
Odds correct at 1650 BST (02/07/20)
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