Michael Beardmore has best bets and a preview for a meeting between relegation candidates Fulham and West Brom on Monday.
Recommended bets
2pt Ademola Lookman 1+ shots on target 10/11
1pt Draw/under 2.5 goals 100/30
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Fulham v West Brom
- 17:30 GMT on Sky Sports Box Office
- Match odds: Home 7/5 | Draw 23/10 | Away 19/10
It’s around that time of the season when football chairmen can begin to get itchy trigger fingers, something the men in the dugouts for Monday night’s teatime clash will only be too aware of.
On the face of it, Scott Parker and Slaven Bilic should have enough goodwill in the bank to not fret too much about poor starts, having each achieved promotion from the Sky Bet Championship in the summer.
Nonetheless, the fact remains that Fulham and West Brom are among the four teams yet to register a Premier League win this season.
Parker’s Cottagers are rock bottom with just a point to their name after six games but it’s Bilic who might be in bigger danger, despite being two points better off, if rumours of a row with his board over the sale of Ahmed Hegazi are to be believed.
It’s not just in getting wins on the board where both have struggled, it’s been finding the net – before this weekend, only Burnley and Sheffield United, the other two winless sides, had scored fewer than Albion’s six and Fulham’s five goals.
This all points to a tight and nervy encounter at the Cottage as, while each will be keen to record that first win, they will likely be even more desperate to avoid defeat.
As this week’s Premier League: Punting Pointers identifies, ‘unders’ and draws are very much back en vogue as managers throw the shackles back on after the madcap early weeks of the season – and we can combine those two markets here.
West Brom have drawn three of their past four, including the second-half nightmare against Chelsea when they shipped three goals to draw 3-3, a horror show which has made Bilic keen to tighten things up since.
They have drawn their last two, 0-0 with Burnley and 1-1 at Brighton, and I fancy a repeat of one of those scorelines here which is why I’m recommending the draw/under 2.5 goals bet at a tidy 100/30.
That bet would also have landed both times these evenly-matched teams met in the Championship last term – an early-season 1-1 at Craven Cottage followed by a 0-0 stalemate at The Hawthorns just three months ago.
Ademola Lookman's fine strike wasn't enough for Fulham to pick up their first win of the season as Aleksandar Mitrovic missed a penalty and then gave away one at the other end in a 1-1 draw at Sheffield United...👇🎬
— Sky Sports Premier League (@SkySportsPL) October 18, 2020
Both sides’ lack of joy in front of goal makes goalscorer markets a tough nut to crack in this one but long odds backers could do worse than the 22/1 on offer for Albion’s Semi Ajayi to score a header.
Fulham have conceded three times from set-pieces already this season and the Baggies centre-half scored five last term – he’s 17/2 to score anytime but given it’s likely to be with his head, 22s is a better shout. In an encounter expected to be low-scoring, taking him at 20/1 each-way as first goal-scorer with bet365 is another good option.
But the price that has surprised me is the 10/11 proffered for Fulham forward Ademola Lookman to have one or more shots on target – he’s also a tempting 9/2 to test the keeper twice or more.
The RB Leipzig loanee, an England Under-20 World Cup winner, never really made the grade with former club Everton but has caught the eye in the past fortnight after arriving a month ago.
Lookman has started Fulham’s past two games and registered nine shots in total, with three on target including the opening goal in a 1-1 draw at Sheffield United.
That makes the 10/11 on one on target here look overpriced for a player not afraid to have a pop.
Score prediction: Fulham 1-1 West Brom (Sky Bet odds 5/1)
Best bets:
Odds correct at 1230 30/10/20
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