A marked decrease in the number of goals in the Premier League last weekend – 1.9 per game, down from 3.5 – suggests clubs are finally starting to gain some control over the chaos.
Perhaps fitness is improving and minds are sharpening, but more likely managers are reacting to the disorder by taking a more conservative approach.
That is certainly what we saw from Manchester United last weekend, and given that Arsenal have largely avoided high-scoring matches this season, that points to a disappointingly quiet game at Old Trafford on Saturday.
Mikel Arteta seeks control through highly disciplined defensive positioning, the side-effect of which is losing creativity. Ole Gunnar Solksjaer seeks control by sitting off and shutting down. A dull stalemate similar to United’s 0-0 draw with Chelsea is definitely on the cards.
Arsenal and Man Utd both goal shy
Arsenal’s creativity issues are becoming a serious problem for Arteta. His 3-4-3 formation is perhaps partially to blame, creating three flat lines in which the midfield two are too close together and disconnected from the front three – with players rarely moving between the lines to collect the ball in the number ten space or the half-spaces.
This stagnancy is compounded by the lack of a playmaker in the side (Mesut Ozil’s absence is more conspicuous by the day), while Alexander Lacazette doesn’t do enough outside the penalty area to warrant his starting spot. Creative pressure is heaped onto the Arsenal wing-backs, and as opponents drop deep, neither Kieran Tierney nor Hector Bellerin can find the space they need.
United are similarly ineffective of late but for entirely different reasons. Unlike Arteta, who practices hyper-organised positional moves almost to a fault, Solskjaer expects his players to freely improvise in possession, making them susceptible to individual slumps in confidence. Currently Bruno Fernandes and Paul Pogba are out of form, which means the entire system – as unstructured as it is – falls apart.
It is worth noting that United and Arsenal sit 13th and 16th respectively in the table for ‘progressive passes’, a measure of vertical balls into the opposition third. Should United play as cautiously as they did against Chelsea, and should Arsenal fail to up the tempo of their 1-0 defeat to Leicester City on Monday night, then we could be set for a dull game.
United’s counters, Arsenal’s high line
Then again, there is the potential for a tactical and territorial battle that will open up this contest. Arsenal’s propensity for a high defensive line and prosaic possession football could play into United’s hands, given that Solskjaer prefers to sit deeper against ‘Big Six’ sides and break quickly in behind.
Arsenal are likely to be lured forward, too, given that United won’t press them at all. That means Arteta’s short passing out from the back – intended to draw the press – won’t work, and instead the Arsenal defenders will be allowed to carry the ball up to the halfway line; Arsenal will dominate the ball, and United will patiently wait for counters.
This hands the hosts an advantage because of key injuries in the Arsenal defence. David Luiz is likely to miss the game after being withdrawn during the defeat to Leicester, meaning Shkodran Mutafi at right centre-back in a makeshift back three that already includes Granit Xhaka.
United attack down the left flank 44% of the time, the joint second highest in the Premier League, with Marcus Rashford and Anthony Martial (to be replaced by Daniel James or Mason Greenwood this weekend) frequently combining down this flank with the support of Luke Shaw. Shaw might not be the most reliable defensively, but he ranks fourth among Premier League players for progressive runs, with 4.92 per 90; he carries the ball a long way, opening up space for the runs of Greenwood and Rashford.
Consequently, Mustafi could be in real trouble on that side, especially on the counter-attack when Bellerin is caught probing deep in the United half. It could prove to be the key battleground.
Auameyang and a weakened United right
If Arsenal are to win this, it will most likely be down their left-hand side where Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang will be supported by Kieran Tierney. Like United, 44% of their attacks are down the left, largely because of Aubameyang’s unusual movements to join Lacazette - and thanks to the pace of Tierney, whose direct dribbling can helpfully disrupt the rhythmic passing through midfield.
It is also United’s weakest area, despite Aaron Wan-Bissaka’s excellent defending. He receives very little support from the right winger (James or Juan Mata), which historically means he needs to hold up the opposition left winger while waiting for support from one of United’s central midfielders. However, the complexity of movement from Aubameyang and Tierney makes this task considerably more difficult.
United could be overwhelmed on this flank during moments of the game in which the play becomes stretched.
A stalemate the most likely outcome
And yet that won’t happen very often. Arteta just doesn’t let matches swing wildly, focusing on a highly structured shape both on- and off-the-ball, while Solskjaer also has little interest in opening up and undoing the good work from their 0-0 draw with Chelsea.
Neither manager leaves space defensively, neither team concedes many goals, and – most important of all – both sides will consider a 0-0 draw a good result and a valuable point.
That, alone, is enough reason to believe Saturday’s game at Old Trafford will sadly be another dull contest; another example of Premier League managers working hard to regain control of a frantic and unpredictable campaign.
Odds correct at 1125 GMT (29/10/20)
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