Shortly after hanging up his boots in 2006 Pep Guardiola embarked on a tour of Argentina to learn from some of his footballing idols, and by far the most significant of his visits was to the house of Marcelo Bielsa.
The two men spent eleven intense hours discussing their tactical philosophies, the conversation becoming increasingly animated as the two men shared ideas late into the night.
Guardiola sees Bielsa as one of his three greatest football idols alongside Johan Cruyff and Juanma Lillo, the former his coach at Barcelona and the latter his long-time mentor and now Manchester City’s assistant manager. For Guardiola, Bielsa’s tactical influence on football means that despite his relatively bare trophy cabinet he remains ‘the best coach in the world’.
On Saturday, the two managers go head-to-head for the first time since 2012, when Barcelona beat Athletic Bilbao 3-0 in the Copa del Rey final, Guardiola’s final game at the club. This meeting doesn’t have as much riding on it, but nevertheless it should be one of the most fascinating and entertaining matches of the Premier League season; Guardiola’s and Bielsa’s principles differ in enough meaningful ways to ensure that their systems do not cancel each other out – but rather clatter together.
Leeds’ runners can get at shaky City defence
Bielsa’s team was at full throttle on the opening day at Anfield, and that’s the only speed they know. Their ultra-aggressive 4-1-4-1 will again be used on Saturday, which means a bold - or reckless - high press, multiple runners on the shoulder of City’s high defensive line, and the emptying out of central midfield to create end-to-end carnage.
There is a chance it could work. Man City were easily opened up by Leicester last weekend partly because their back four isn’t good enough, and partly because of a coaching flaw that deserves greater scrutiny. Guardiola’s team just aren’t pressing as cohesively as they used to, with midfielders regularly hounding down the ball while the back four hesitate, leaving a chasm of space between the lines. It is in here that Harvey Barnes collected the ball several times to feed Jamie Vardy.
Vardy’s runs should not have caused quite so big a problem. Better quality defenders than Eric Garcia and Nathan Ake would have squeezed out the space, while more organising from the dugout – as well as some on-field leadership – would have helped. Aymeric Laporte is still not up to match fitness and Ruben Dias is unlikely to be thrown in at the deep end. That wobbly City back line, so vulnerable to runners in behind, could be in for another torrid afternoon.
Bielsa prioritises getting four or five players to simultaneously make runs on the shoulder of the last defender, creating a sense of chaos in the opposition defence as Kalvin Phillips looks to launch long balls over the top. This highly unusual gung-ho approach made even Virgil van Dijk look a little bamboozled on the opening day. Just imagine what it will do to Garcia and Ake.
Bielsa’s verticality will create space for De Bruyne
But the problem with Bielsa’s system, especially when playing a ‘Big Six’ side, is that his direct attacking approach completely empties out central midfield, meaning that when a counter-attack breaks down the opposition can counter-counter straight through the middle. Against Liverpool, Phillips was repeatedly left all alone to cope with red shirts swarming through midfield.
In Bielsa’s 4-1-4-1, two central midfielders pull wide to support the full-backs, one drops into a back three, and the other joins the forwards to run in behind. That leaves a cavernous space, and there is no team more effective through central attacking midfield than Man City. Surely Kevin de Bruyne, Phil Foden, and Riyad Mahrez (the latter two cutting inside to join the Belgian) will flourish if given acres of room in which to operate.
The plan, from a Leeds perspective, is to press high and hard enough to prevent City from evading the challenges and getting into those counter-counter situations. But they surely won’t manage to do so given the gulf in quality between the two sides, not to mention City’s use of a false nine in the absence of Sergio Aguero and Gabriel Jesus. Raheem Sterling, dropping off the front, provides yet another passing option through the centre.
Guardiola’s response to Bielsa’s chaos
Even if a high-scoring game and end-to-end contest would most likely lead to Man City winning the three points, Guardiola is desperate for control: he will not be happy for things to get wild, which probably means some tactical adjustments to cope with Bielsa’s chaos.
Perhaps Benjamin Mendy and Kyle Walker will be asked to sit deeper than usual to provide extra cover against the multiple runners in behind, and perhaps Guardiola – burned by the humiliation against Leicester – will drop that defensive line back a few yards for protection.
However, it is more likely he will seek to find control by out-pressing their opponents, shutting their counters down at source and therefore suffocating them with territorial dominance in the Leeds half. Their forwards will look to pounce sharply on the home side’s defenders, and on Phillips in particular as he takes up a quarter-back role to ping balls over the top. In other words, Guardiola’s attempts to control the chaos may actually raise the tempo yet further. There will be goals in this one.
Key battle areas
Leeds are not without hope, of course. Jack Harrison has made a superb start to life in the Premier League cutting in off that left flank, although his loan spell at Elland Road from City makes him unavailable here, but it is down Leeds’ right side that we can anticipate the game’s key battleground.
Mendy and Ake looked lost against Leicester, communicating poorly and leaving huge gaps between them for Vardy and James Maddison to run into. Bielsa will surely target that weakness, using Helder Costa’s impressive footwork as a distraction as Patrick Bamford runs into the right-hand channel and full-back Luke Ayling overlaps.
From a Man City perspective, there is no particular pattern developing in the type of area Leeds are conceding in the Premier League this season, except that virtually every time they concede the back four has been pulled alarmingly out of shape. That is not an accident: Bielsa preaches an unusual man-to-man marking system in open play, meaning defenders are given licence to follow attackers right out of the back line and wherever it takes them, occasionally with disastrous results.
And so Guardiola can simply instruct his players to move the ball quickly while rotating positions with one another. Sterling’s false nine role, coupled with some meandering movement from the rest of the front line, ought to be enough to yank the Leeds defence into awkward zig-zagging lines, in turn creating space for Man City to score.
Leeds have already conceded seven goals this season, while Man City tend to respond to a heavy defeat with menacing, vengeful intent. This will be a high-scoring game, and there will be big chances at either end, Man City’s attacking riches means they should easily out-score their hosts.
Guardiola and Bielsa debated the philosophy of football tactics as intellectual equals in Rosario all those years ago. Ahead of their meeting on Saturday, a financial gulf – and an insurmountable one at that – has opened up between them.
Odds correct at 1730 BST (30/09/20)
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