The first of the UEFA Nations League semi-finals takes place in Porto, where Portugal take on outsiders Switzerland.
Recommended bets
1pt Haris Seferovic to score anytime at 10/3
1pt Switzerland to progress to the final at 5/2
For advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Portugal v Switzerland (Estádio do Dragão, 1945 BST, Sky Sports Main Event)
The first of the UEFA Nations League semi-finals takes place in Porto, where Portugal take on outsiders Switzerland.
The current European champions are favourites with some bookmakers to win the tournament outright, but there is some value in backing their opponents to reach the final.
The hosts have been held back by draws in recent games. No defeat in four looks good on the records, but the fact all have ended level potentially shows the issue they have.
On the contrary, Switzerland saw two of their four group games end with them scoring five or more goals. The most eye-catching result being that convincing 5-2 hammering of World Cup semi-finalists Belgium, a game where they found themselves 2-0 down early on.
Portugal may have the name in Cristiano Ronaldo, but Switzerland have shown how they have consistency across the squad. All of their players ply their trade in Europe's top divisions, with many seeing European qualification with their teams.
Their recent showings have highlighted why, for me, the 5/2 price on qualification to the final seems a little too high. There's no doubting that Portugal are a good outfit, but Switzerland have earned their right to compete on this stage.
The fact that the Swiss had to battle Belgium, and managed to edge past them to the finals on goal difference, and that can only put them in a good place here.
It has to be said too that, on the whole, Switzerland had a harder group than Portugal and still managed to pick up a point more. The Portuguese faced Italy and Poland, which is actually easier than what it may appear on the surface.
Italy are still in the process of a rebuild and, while they have young talent coming through, they aren't quite at the level required just yet. As for Poland, their two points in the Nations League and performance at the recent World Cup highlights their many problems.
For Switzerland, they managed to get the better of Belgium in spectacular fashion. Alongside that, the eight goals scored against two games in Iceland should be applauded regardless of the opposition.
In League A, with the 12 best international teams in Europe competing against each other, Switzerland finished as top scorers by some distance. Their 14 goals in four games made them just one of two teams to hit double figures, Spain's 12 goals saw them come closest.
Leading the line during that campaign was Haris Seferovic, who scored five of those 14 goals. The Benfica man has enjoyed a very positive season for both club and country and will aim to carry that form into the finals.
It's hardly a surprise to see Southampton linked with a move this summer. Seferovic netted 23 goals in 29 Liga NOS games, that tally rising to 27 if you include other competitions.
A groin injury prevented him from taking part in European qualifiers in March, but prior to that he netted four goals in two competitive games for Switzerland, including a hat-trick in the win against Belgium.
The big question surrounds whether he will develop that one-season wonder reputation following a prolific season. Time will tell on that front, but what we can see is that he is a striker who is currently playing with confidence and form and that can only put him in the right position for the unfancied side.
A price of 10/3 looks more than appealing for him to continue his run against Portugal on Wednesday. 7/4 is also available for two or more shots on target in 90 minutes, but it's worth taking that 10/3 as he has proved to be a striker who clearly knows where the net is at all levels.
Score prediction: Portugal 1-2 Switzerland (Sky Bet odds: 16/1)
Best bet: Haris Seferovic to score anytime at 10/3
Opta facts
- Portugal have won four of their last seven matches against Switzerland (D1 L2), one more than they’d registered in their first 15 meetings with the Swiss (W3 D4 L8).
- Switzerland have picked up two victories in their last three encounters with Portugal (L1), as many as they had won in their previous 10 combined (W2 D4 L4).
- Switzerland are winless in their last eight games played in Portugal (incl. Euro 2004), losing six and drawing twice since a 2-0 victory against Portugal in a World Cup 1970 qualifier in April 1969.
- Portugal have lost just one of their last 15 matches in all competitions (W5 D9 L1), losing 1-2 versus Uruguay at World Cup 2018 in the last 16.
- Portugal have kept a clean sheet in 15 of their last 30 matches across all competitions, losing just two times in the process (W16 D12 L2).
- Switzerland have lost just one of their last five matches (W3 D1 L1), scoring at least two goals in four of those games (12 scored) and failing to net in the other versus Qatar.
- Cristiano Ronaldo hasn’t scored in any of his last four appearances for Portugal, since scoring versus Morocco at World Cup 2018. The Juventus striker has attempted 27 shots without scoring since that strike against Morocco and he last went five international games without a goal back in June 2012.
- Cristiano Ronaldo has scored two goals in five previous semi-final appearances for Portugal (incl. World Cup, EUROs, Confederations Cup), scoring versus Netherlands in EURO 2004 and against Wales in EURO 2016.
- Portugal’s Bruno Fernandes (20 goals, 13 assists) had a hand in more goals than any other player in the Portuguese top-flight in 2018-19.
- Switzerland’s Haris Seferovic has scored five goals in his last five appearances for Switzerland, after scoring just one goal in his previous 11 for the Rossocrociati.
Squad Lists
PORTUGAL
Goalkeepers: Beto (Göztepe), José Sá (Olympiacos), Rui Patrício (Wolverhampton Wanderers)
Defenders: João Cancelo (Juventus), Nélson Semedo (Barcelona), José Fonte (LOSC Lille), Pepe (Porto), Rúben Dias (Benfica), Raphaël Guerreiro (Borussia Dortmund), Mário Rui (Napoli)
Midfielders: Danilo (Porto), Rúben Neves (Wolverhampton Wanderers), William Carvalho (Real Betis), Bruno Fernandes (Sporting CP), João Moutinho (Wolverhampton Wanderers), Pizzi (Benfica)Forwards: Bernardo Silva (Manchester City), João Félix (SL Benfica), Gonçalo Guedes (Valencia), Rafa Silva (Benfica), Cristiano Ronaldo (Juventus), Diogo Jota (Wolverhampton Wanderers), Dyego Sousa (Braga)
SWITZERLAND
Goalkeepers: Yann Sommer (Mönchengladbach), Yvon Mvogo (Leipzig), Jonas Omlin (Basel)
Defenders: Manuel Akanji (Dortmund), Loris Benito (Young Boys), Nico Elvedi (Mönchengladbach), Michael Lang (Mönchengladbach), Kevin Mbabu (Young Boys), Jacques-François Moubandje (Toulouse), Ricardo Rodríguez (Milan), Fabian Schär (Newcastle)
Midfielders: Edimilson Fernandes (Fiorentina), Remo Freuler (Atalanta), Xherdan Shaqiri (Liverpool), Djibril Sow (Young Boys), Renato Steffen (Wolfsburg), Granit Xhaka (Arsenal), Denis Zakaria (Mönchengladbach), Steven Zuber (Stuttgart), Noah Okafor (Basel)
Forwards: Josip Drmić (Mönchengladbach), Haris Seferović (Benfica), Albian Ajeti (Basel)
Odds correct at 1510 BST (03/06/19)
