George Pitts is siding with an away victory in a vital match at the bottom of the Premier League between Swansea and Southampton.
Recommended bets: Swansea v Southampton
1pt Southampton to beat Swansea at 7/5
1pt Half-time/full-time - draw/Southampton at 5/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record.
Swansea v Southampton (Tuesday May 8, 1945 BST, Sky Sports Premier League)
The very definition of a six-pointer.
It is crunch time in the Premier League and, with two games of the season remaining, it is hotting up in the race to avoid the drop.
Southampton, 17th, currently hold the advantage over Swansea in 18th, only on goal difference, but they could – and possibly should – have been two points clear of the bottom three going into this one.
Mark Hughes' side were moments away from sealing a vital win at Everton at Saturday, before a deflected goal deep into stoppage time secured a point for the home side.
Gutting. A key victory was snatched away from them at the last minute and now their reaction is vital. Will confidence be completely knocked, or can they bounce back in time for the trip to Wales?
If Saints can't get up for this game then they deserve to go down, quite frankly. They face an away trip to champions Man City on the final day, only accentuating the 'must-win' element against their relegation rivals even if City were held by Huddersfield at the weekend.
Pressure aside, Southampton are unbeaten in their last three Premier League outings and travel to the Liberty Stadium as 7/5 favourites.
Carlos Carvalhal’s honeymoon period with the Swans is well and truly over, with the weekend defeat at Bournemouth extending their winless run to eight matches.
What the former Sheffield Wednesday boss must use as solace is the fact their final two games are against Southampton and already-relegated Stoke. Win them both and they stay up - the equation is simple.
These sides played out a goalless draw at the other end of the season, and you can envisage a repeat result, but preference is for a vital away victory.
Southampton have more quality in their side overall and we are starting to see evidence of that with improvements under Hughes - such as Nathan Redmond's return to form.
Hughes said at the weekend how the 24-year-old is regaining his confidence and he could well be key on Tuesday night. He netted for Southampton at Goodison and you can back him here anytime at 5s, which would obviously be preferred to a skinny-by-comparison 11/2 for the score-and-win double.
The game might not be the most enticing on which to have a bet, but the stakes for the clubs are huge and both sides have to go for it.
Southampton look big enough in the match market, while an away victory with over 1.5 goals can be backed at 21/10.
With the chances of a cagey start and rather more frantic finish, a small play on draw/Southampton at 5/1 in the half-time/full-time column is also recommended.
Prediction: Swansea 0-2 Southampton (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Best bet: Southampton to win at 7/5
Alternative: Half-time/full-time - draw/Southampton at 5/1
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Posted at 1300 BST on 07/05/18.
