Swansea take on Cardiff on Saturday, and Michael Beardmore has previewed the game, providing his best bets.
Football betting tips: Sky Bet Championship
0.5pt e.w Leandro Bacuna to score first in Swansea v Cardiff at 22/1 (bet365) (e.w terms 1/3 odds 1-98 places)
0.5pt Sean Morrison to score any time in Swansea v Cardiff at 10/1 (William Hill, Betfred)
South Wales derbies are always fiercely-fought affairs but few encounters between Swansea and Cardiff down the years will have had as much riding them on this one.
Swansea looked in the box seat for the second automatic promotion spot behind leaders Norwich just a couple of weeks ago but Watford have come up on the rails to overtake them after winning eight of their past nine.
If the Hornets, as you would expect, win at home earlier on Saturday against struggling Birmingham City, they would open up a gap of six points to third-placed Swansea, who would have two games in hand but a far inferior goal difference.
It’s a game Swansea really need to win, then – but the same can be said of Mick McCarthy’s ninth-placed Cardiff who have won just once in five since a six-game victory streak put them right into the play-off mix.
Pressure off Cardiff
Of the two, there’s arguably less pressure on Cardiff, who had probably given up on a top-six spot until McCarthy’s appointment kick-started that winning run.
The bookies are struggling to separate the teams – 6/4 generally on the Swans, 19/10 on Cardiff, 21/10 on the draw – and I’m inclined to agree. Swansea have been solid this season but have thrown in a few unexpected defeats recently.
Their vaunted back-line has seen their standards slip – Swansea have conceded 13 goals in their past eight games including a morale-sapping midweek 3-0 defeat at Bournemouth. That’s not disastrous but it’s a marked departure as they had only conceded 15 in 28 matches prior.
Swansea had been hugely overperforming defensively and that’s why they are so high in the table – indeed Infogol figures calculate their expected goals against (xGA) at 37.0, nine more than they have actually let in.
They are beginning to regress to the mean which should worry Swans fans, given the expected goals table suggests they should be as low as 11th – below Saturday evening’s visitors, who would be 10th.
Value in goalscorer markets
Cardiff have been hot and cold on the scoring front recently, some fours and threes mixed with ones and zeros, but I fancy them to score at least once against an increasingly shaky Swans back-line.
The Cardiff scoring markets are where the value is to be found in this one and I fancy LEANDRO BACUNA TO SCORE FIRST at 22/1 with Bet365.
For me, those odds are, understandably, based on Bacuna’s history as a defensive player but he has been pushed further forward by McCarthy in his past two starts, registering 10 shots in the process and scoring twice in the 4-0 win over Derby.
It’s one to keep an eye on the teamsheets for, because he has been used as a substitute a number of times by McCarthy, but Bacuna was by far Cardiff’s most threatening forward player in the midweek stalemate with Stoke and should have done enough to keep his place.
We can take the bet365 1/3 odds 1-98 place offer to each-way terms, meaning we get just over 7/1 on him to score at any time.
A statistic we ignore at our peril is Cardiff’s propensity to score from set-pieces this season – they have netted a whopping 22 from such situations, eight more than any other Championship side.
Centre-half Sean Morrison has scored five of those and it is definitely worth a small play on MORRISON TO SCORE ANYTIME at 10/1 with William Hill and Betfred. He’s 14s to score first with several firms so 10s at any time screams value.
Swansea v Cardiff score prediction and best bets
- Leandro Bacuna to score first in Swansea v Cardiff at 22/1 (Bet365) (e.w terms 1/3 odds 1-98 places)
- Sean Morrison to score any time in Swansea v Cardiff at 10/1 (William Hill, Betfred)
Score prediction: Swansea 1-1 Cardiff (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct at 2100 GMT (17/03/21)
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