Tuesday's packed evening of action in the Sky Bet Championship kicks off with Millwall against Swansea. We look at the betting for the meeting at the New Den.
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Millwall v Swansea
- 1700 BST kick-off on Sky Sports Football
- Match Odds: Home 6/4 | Draw 11/5 | Away 19/10
This isn't a match that really whets the appetite - that's not me trying to do Millwall and Swansea down, it's quite simply a form thing.
The duo looked to be bankers for a place in the Sky Bet Championship play-offs back in mid-January, but both have won just twice in 11 league matches. They do still have a decent chance of making it though, with Swansea four points off the pace and Millwall a point and a place further adrift.
Swans fans must have thought that pre-shutdown wobble had been shaken off when three goals in the opening 34 minutes of their restarted campaign blew away struggling Middlesbrough (and cost Jonathan Woodgate his job) but they then lost at home to bottom-of-the-table Luton.
The Lions made a fast start too by taking an early lead against Derby, but went on to lose 3-2 at The New Den, a result they followed up with a goalless draw at relegation-battling Barnsley.
When neither team offers up a strong case then that's where your money ought to go. And in this instance, the stats point towards it too - they are two of the division's draw specialists.
Millwall top that chart with 16, and Swansea sit third on 14. That makes the draw at 11/5 value in itself.
Half of the Swans' drawn games have ended goalless with five 1-1s, while more than half (nine) of the Lions' have been 1-1 and four end goalless. In total, of those 30 drawn matches just five have seen more than 2.5 goals scored.
In terms of The New Den factor, the Swans have lost only four times on the road, drawing nine of their 19 matches. Millwall have lost only four times at home this term, drawing seven of their 18 matches.
That is reflected in the best prices of 13/5 for the draw and Under 2.5 goals, and Under 2.5 goals at 8/13. While it's likely that a draw would be 0-0 or 1-1, limiting yourself to that for only a tiny increased margin isn't worth it, especially when the opening match of the restarted campaign saw Swansea win 3-0 and Millwall lose a five-goal thriller.
11/5 for the draw alone is superb value.
Millwall as a club has a certain reputation, and with that reputation sometimes comes certain inaccurate assumptions, one of which is that they are a dirty team.
As well as being a contest between two sides with near identical recent form, it is also one between two sides with near identical fair play records.
Only Brentford and Stoke have collected fewer than Millwall's 58 yellow cards in the Championship this term. The Lions have also picked up two straight reds, and a further sending-off for two bookable offences. Add on a solitary yellow card and Swansea's record is EXACTLY the same.
So we have two teams who between them average exactly three bookings per game, ratios which have continued since the restart - Millwall have collected two and the Swans have collected three.
If this was a market you backed in Swansea's last game then a late red card for midfielder Jordan Garrick at home to Luton truly was a bitter blow.
Nonetheless I like it as a market for their trip to the Den. Under 50 Total Booking Points only offers 1/3, drop that tad lower and I think evens presents an opportunity.
Score prediction: Millwall 1-1 Swansea (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
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