Football betting tips: West Ham v Arsenal
1pt West Ham to win 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1 at 3/1 (Sky Bet)
0.25pt Craig Dawson to score a header at 12/1 (Sky Bet)
West Ham’s hopes of securing a surprise Champions League berth next season suffered a blow last weekend when David Moyes’ ultra-cautious approach failed to pay dividends at Old Trafford.
The Hammers, beaten 1-0 by Manchester United, failed to have a shot during a bleak opening 45 minutes and never looked likely to force a share of the spoils thereafter.
With Pablo Fornals ruled out through injury, and on-loan Jesse Lingard ineligible to play against his parent club, the Irons were largely toothless in attack until Manuel Lanzini and Said Benrahma were brought on just after the hour mark.
There was more impetus in the away side’s play following that double change but it was too little, too late.
Moyes opted to recall Mark Noble into a midfield three but the skipper’s presence disrupted the balance of Tomas Soucek and Declan Rice, restricting West Ham offensively.
The Hammers plan to sit deep, contain and counter rarely came to fruition and the Irons are yet to win in the four league games in which Noble has started this season.
With that in mind, alterations are expected ahead of Sunday afternoon’s showdown with Arsenal. Fornals should be fine, Lingard recalled and both Benrahma and Lanzini pushing for a place in the starting XI as Moyes’ men target top honours. And I’d back the slightly underrated Hammers to collect at least a share of the spoils at the London Stadium.
Hammers a tough team to beat
After all, the hosts have suffered only six Premier League defeats in 26 outings since mid-September (W14-D6-L6).
Those six losses have arrived against Liverpool, Man City, Man Utd and Chelsea, with West Ham actually earning a really impressive W13-D5-L2 when taking on teams outside of the top-six (a run that includes an W8-D2-L1 return on home soil).
Considering the Irons were 17th, just one point above the relegation zone, when Moyes returned for a second spell in December 2019, the Scot has overseen a remarkable transformation and the club are now setting their sights on matching their best ever Premier League finish of fifth in 1999, a scenario few would have imagined just a year ago.
But before we rush to back West Ham at bulbous quotes, opponents Arsenal have to be respected following their recent resurgence since Christmas.
Improving Arsenal opposable
Mikel Arteta’s more fluent attacking approach has coincided with a welcome upturn in both process and results; only Man City, Man Utd, and Leicester have earned more points than Arsenal since Christmas.
However, the guests have still displayed a propensity to chuck promising positions away with unforced errors, sloppy defending and a lack of game management.
Indeed, the latter, and possibly fatigue, contributed to Arteta’s outfit almost allowing Tottenham to snatch an undeserved point during last weekend’s North London derby at The Emirates.
Tiredness has to be a concern coming into this contest too. Arsenal were back in Europa League action on Thursday with progression vital if the Gunners’ own Champions League aspirations are to be realised.
Of course, Arteta has a reasonable squad to rest and rotate but there’s a clear disadvantage in terms of recovery and preparation for the visitors here.
Get the hosts onside
Over the course of the whole campaign, West Ham are rated above the Gunners across a range of performance data metrics and deserve a little more respect in the market.
Therefore, I’ll happily take the 3/1 option from Sky Bet on the WEST HAM TO WIN 1-0, 2-0 OR 2-1 considering six of the hosts’ eight London Stadium triumphs arrived in this manner.
Arsenal’s road record remains unconvincing. Exclude the bottom-five and the Gunners have posted just W3-D2-L5 on their travels, whilst clean sheets have been kept just twice (at West Brom and Brighton) in the visitors’ past nine games as guests.
Meanwhile, nine of their overall 11 league losses have followed the same correct score pattern.
Elsewhere, the boost to 12/1 on CRAIG DAWSON TO SCORE A HEADER is worth a small interest.
The centre-half has scored four goals across all competitions in 2021, three of which have arrived via headers.
At 6'2'', the 30-year-old is targeted from set-pieces, and has had at least one attempt at goal in 11 of 16 starts for West Ham, hitting the target on six occasions.
West Ham v Arsenal best bets and score prediction
- 1pt on the West Ham to win 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1 at 3/1 (Sky Bet)
- 0.25pt on Craig Dawson to score a header at 12/1 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: West Ham 2-1 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
Odds correct at 0930 GMT (19/03/21)
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