Mark O'Haire has a preview and best bets for the North London derby between in-form Tottenham and struggling Arsenal on Super Sunday.
Recommended bets
1pt Tottenham to win and under 3.5 goals at 9/5
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Tottenham v Arsenal
- 16:30 GMT on Sky Sports Premier League
- Match odds: Home 13/5 | Draw 12/5 | Away 21/20
North London derby dates are always evocative and high-pressured match-ups, none more so than Super Sunday’s latest showdown considering the plight of the two capital rivals. The pendulum has swung in Tottenham’s direction over recent seasons and Spurs will be looking to cement their superiority in front of 2,000 supporters this weekend.
Jose Mourinho’s men have bounced back from a dour opening day defeat against Everton to move into pole position in the Premier League. Premature talk of a possible title challenge will only accelerate should Tottenham take top honours in this tussle, whilst simultaneously heightening the frustration and dissentient attitude over at Arsenal.
Odds on Mikel Arteta in the Next Manager To Go market have shrunk in the past fortnight following a miserable run of results, but should the Gunners find their range – as they have en-route to FA Cup success against Manchester City, as well at Manchester United last month, the mood in both camps could alter dramatically as we close in on Christmas.
Arsenal’s sub-standard results have been matched by numerous below-par performances across the campaign. Arteta’s outfit have certainly improved from a defensive perspective but questions and criticism remain over his side’s style, system and failure to get the best out of star striker Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang this term.
Tweaks were made to the team against Wolves last week, although Arsenal were again beaten on the Expected Goals (xG) metric, whilst their output of 1.65 xG was only the third occasion in 2020/21 the Gunners have generated over 1.50 xG in the league. Meanwhile, the guests have scored fewer than two goals in 11 of 15 away days under Arteta’s watch.
Arsenal have pocketed only four Premier League victories in 15 on their travels under Arteta and so there’s a reasonably compelling case to oppose the Gunners here. However, considering Tottenham were as big as 9/5 outsiders in this very fixture as recently as July, the value on a home success is minimal at best in the general 1x2 market.
Tottenham’s home record does not match the results they have posted on the road, although admittedly Spurs were unfortunate to drop four points with last-minute goals when welcoming West Ham and Newcastle. A Europa League tie in Austria three days prior to this contest isn’t ideal preparation, but Mourinho’s men still deserve maximum respect.
Just three Premier League clubs have posted a higher points per-game across the 36 matchdays since the Portuguese head coach arrived at Spurs, Manchester City (x2), Arsenal and Leicester have been toppled here since July, with losses against Chelsea and Liverpool coming in the embryonic stage of his tenure and amidst a crippling injury crisis.
If Tottenham are to take North London bragging rights, it’s hard to foresee a high-scoring success. With both sides showing a preference to playing in transitions and counter-attacks, we could conceivably see a scenario where the duo offer precious little penetration in possession, and therefore opposing goals could also play a prominent role in our punt.
With that in mind, we can bolster the odds on offer for Spurs to succeed to 17/10 by chucking Under 3.5 Goals into the equation, a wager that includes the 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and 3-0 correct scores – results that make-up three of the most likely four outcomes according to the Correct Score market prices, and a profitable option in each of Tottenham’s past six North London derby triumphs.
Score prediction: Tottenham 1-0 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct at 1400 GMT (03/12/20)
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