Mark O'Haire is on hand again this week to provide his betting tips and best bets for Super Sunday, as Manchester United face Burnley.
Football betting tips: Manchester United v Burnley
- 2pts on Manchester United +0.50 Asian Card Handicap (17/20 Bet365)
- 0.5pts on Scott McTominay to be the first player carded (14/1 SkyBet)
Ole Gunnar Solskjaer said it is time for Manchester United to take the next step and reach a first final since 2017 after the Red Devils eased past Granada on Thursday night to set up a Europa League last-four meeting with Roma.
Having been turned over in all four previous semi-finals under the Norwegian’s reign, silverware remains a top priority at Old Trafford.
With a nine-point cushion over fifth-placed, United can afford to take half an eye off their Premier League campaign coming into the final furlong.
Kick-off time: Sunday, 16:00 BST
TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
Home 1/3 | Draw 4/1 | Away 17/2
United near fully fit
However, suspensions to skipper Harry Maguire, Luke Shaw and Scott McTominay, plus a generous 2-0 first leg advantage, ensured Solskjaer was able to make five changes to his starting team on Thursday.
The aforementioned trio, plus Marcus Rashford and Dean Henderson are expected to be recalled, whilst Paul Pogba may also keep his place despite an early withdrawal.
Indeed, Eric Bailly and Anthony Martial are likely to be the only men missing, giving United almost a fully fit squad to select from against a Burnley side still fighting for survival.
The Clarets suffered a rare defeat to a side outside of the top-seven last weekend after allowing Newcastle to come from behind and secure a potentially vital 2-1 success at Turf Moor.
Sean Dyche's side impressed in the opening exchanges with the partnership of Chris Wood and Matej Vydra causing particular problems in terms of aerial threat and pace.
Burnley defence under pressure
But Burnley’s profligacy was made to pay and the Clarets have now succeeded just once in eight Premier League outings (W1-D4-L3), as well as failing to keep a shutout in six.
Surprisingly, it is their longest run without a clean sheet this season and the most enduring run of this kind since the 2018-19 campaign. On that occasion, it was eight.
Alarmingly, Dyche described the two goals conceded against Newcastle as “soft”.
A week earlier he admitted Burnley let Southampton back into the game with two defensive lapses, uncharacteristic for the traditional overperformers.
Worryingly too, a deep dive into the data also suggests the Clarets’ customary pragmatism has floundered in recent weeks.
So whilst the Clarets might be creating more in the final-third, particularly over their past five fixtures, Burnley remain vulnerable, particularly so against the division’s leading lights.
The visitors have returned W1-D1-L9 against the top-seven this term by an aggregate 3-19 and since 2016/17, Dyche’s side have pocketed W6-D11-L40 against top-six teams.
The market is already anticipating a routine home success.
Man Utd have returned W8-D2-L1 at Old Trafford on Premier League duty since the beginning of November, however, only three of those triumphs arrived by more than a one-goal margin and so I’m happy to steer clear of any handicap-based wagers ahead of Super Sunday’s showdown.
Where is the value?
Instead, the 17/20 available with Bet365 on MAN UTD +0.5 ASIAN CARD HANDICAP holds plenty of appeal.
Acting in the same way as a play on the Double Chance market, we’ll be paid out should the Red Devils receive as many, or more, cards than Burnley.
As Premier League hosts, United have already landed this wager in 13 of 15 outings.
Only Southampton (an early red card) and Newcastle departed with more cautions than the Red Devils at Old Trafford this term, whilst 10 of Burnley’s 15 away Premier League days have also seen the same selection pay-out for their opponents.
Lenient official Jonathan Moss is in charge of proceedings and his low card counts – averaging just 2.27 cards per-game this season – should give us a great chance of success with my model making United firm favourites in this market.
Due to Moss’ frugal attitude to bookings, it’s worth bypassing anytime player cards and instead taking something lumpier in the First Player Carded market.
SCOTT MCTOMINAY FIRST CARD stands out here as a 14/1 (SkyBet) shot with the Scottish international cautioned in five of his past seven outings, and before the hour mark in all four matches he started in that sequence.
United’s holding midfield features prominently in the club’s leaders for both tackles and fouls, and often plays on the edge.
Manchester United v Burnley best bets and score prediction
- 2pts on Manchester United +0.50 Asian Card Handicap (17/20 Bet365)
- 0.5pts on Scott McTominay to be the first player carded (14/1 SkyBet)
Score prediction: Manchester United 2-0 Burnley (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct at 1050 GMT on 16/04/21
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