After returning an 11-point profit through 4/5, 3/1 and 6/1 winners in the reverse fixture, Mark O'Haire picks out three best bets for Leeds against Manchester United on Super Sunday.
Football betting tips: Leeds v Manchester United
2pts Manchester United to win and over 1.5 goals at 11/10 (Betfair)
0.5pt Manchester United 20+ shots at 11/2 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Manchester United 23+ shots at 20/1 (Sky Bet)
It’s been a tumultuous week in football, especially so at Manchester United.
Following the club’s failed attempts to join a proposed European Super League (ESL), heavily-criticised executive vice-chairman Ed Woodward announced that he will be stepping down from his role at the end of 2021, a move welcomed by Red Devils supporters.
But while off-field issues continue to hog the headlines, Ole Gunnar Solskjaer deserves immense credit for putting Man Utd in a position of promise as we enter the final furlong.
Ante-post markets had United finishing fourth, with spread betting firms anticipating a 71-point haul over the 2020/21 campaign.
Solskjaer’s side are on course to at least match, or better, both forecasts, and whilst an early Champions League exit was understandably greeted by belligerence, a Europa League final berth remains a possibility.
Those with a glass half-full persuasion will argue that, had United started the season better the title race may have been closer.
The Red Devils have lost just once in their past 26 league games (W17-D8-L1) after slipping to three defeats in their first six (W2-D1-L3), with talk of an unthinkable 21st top-flight crown yet to be completely quashed.
Kick-off time: Sunday, 14:00 BST
TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
Home 31/10 | Draw 16/5 | Away 17/20
United displayed perseverance and patience to overcome a stubborn Burnley at Old Trafford last weekend after making their now customary slow start.
Victory meant Solskjaer’s squad have already matched last term’s points tally, won more Premier League games than in 2019/20, and registered five league wins on the spin for the first time since 2019.
The Red Devils remain unbeaten on the road in the current renewal, have posted triumphs in four of eight trips to top-half clubs, accumulating 13 points more than their hosts this calendar year alone.
Considering Chelsea were 4/5 at Elland Road, and Liverpool went off around 8/11, perhaps Man Utd are a touch underrated at 17/20 quotes here.
Going purely off my Expected Goals (xG) model, I rate the Red Devils closer to 8/11 and their prospects are boosted by the suspension of Leeds’ skipper and defensive lynchpin Liam Cooper, and Raphinha - one of the signings of the season - and being considered a major doubt.
What is Expected Goals (xG)?
- Expected goals (xG) is a metric that measures the quality of any given scoring opportunity
- Expected goals for (xGF) is the xG created by a team
- Expected goals against (xGA) is xG conceded by a team
- CLICK HERE for Manchester United's Infogol xG stats and profile
So I do give the edge to United, but I’m happy to bolster the odds on offer to 11/10 with Betfair by adding over 1.5 goals into the equation. Fifteen of the visitors’ 19 victories in the Premier League this term have arrived in that fashion, with 14 of those triumphs featuring both sides scoring, including each of their last three.
Leeds have only conceded multiple goals in three of their past 15 fixtures and Marcelo Bielsa’s men have decreased their xGA from an average of 1.75 to 1.35 in that time too.
However, the hosts have also kept clean sheets on only three occasions in 2021, and were taken apart when the duo crossed swords at Old Trafford in December, a Super Sunday clash which landed us a clean sweep of 4/5, 3/1 and 6/1 winners.
That memorable reverse encounter produced an overall xG tally of 5.43 and featured 43 shots, 18 on-target attempts and 24 corners. We might not reach the same heights on Sunday, although I’ll happily have an interest in United's high shot lines with Sky Bet offering 11/2 on 20+ shots and 20/1 on 23+ shots.
- Click here to back Manchester United 20+ shots with Sky Bet
- Click here to back Manchester United 23+ shots with Sky Bet
Only West Brom are facing more efforts at goal than Leeds with seven (22%) opposition outfits already firing in a minimum of 20 shots against the Whites since promotion.
Simply converting that 22% figure into implied odds suggests a base price of around 7/2, suggesting there’s a nice slice of value to be had.
Leeds v Man Utd best bets and score prediction
- Manchester United to win and over 1.5 goals at 11/10
- Manchester United 20+ shots at 11/2
- Manchester United 23+ shots at 20/1
Score prediction: Leeds 1-2 Manchester United (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 0850 BST (23/04/21)
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