Mark O'Haire joins the Sporting Life team for the new Premier League season and kicks off his Super Sunday previews with a look at Tottenham v Everton.
Recommended bets
2pts Both Teams To Score at 17/20
0.50pts Everton Lucas Digne to have 2+ shots at 10/3
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Tottenham v Everton
- 1630 BST kick-off on Sky Sports
- Match Odds: Home 10/11 | Draw 11/4 | Away 7/2
Super Sunday’s feature fixture pits Tottenham and Everton together – two teams that endured tumultuous 2019/20 campaigns and ultimately underachieved according to ante-post expectations. Both are now setting their sights on progression, with Spurs eyeing up a return to the Champions League, and the Merseysiders keen to contend for a top-six finish.
With rest and recovery time this summer reduced, plus a disjointed and disrupted pre-season that’s overlapped with an international window, it’s tricky to know quite where these teams are in their preparations. Nevertheless, there’s a reasonable suggestion to say Tottenham appear a little short as 10/11 favourites.
The duo met as recently as July at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium under the same conditions, with Spurs scraping a 1-0 success courtesy of an unfortunate deflected own-goal via Michael Keane. That day, Jose Mourinho’s men went off at evens, in a contest where the capital club rarely dominated, nor deserved to take three points.
The hosts do tend to relish meetings with Everton, mind. Tottenham are unbeaten in 15 Premier League duels with the Toffees, and have suffered only three defeats in their last 28 league games with the visitors here. Everton traditionally fall flat when travelling to the capital regardless of opposition and so historical trends are certainly against them.
Nevertheless, I’m not quite sold on Spurs’ pre-match price. Mourinho’s outfit have only been chalked up as odds-on jollies once post lockdown and in their most recent 11 outings here it’s occurred on only three occasions: against West Ham, Norwich and Brighton, dating back to the beginning of December. The market clearly has trust issues with Tottenham.
That’s possibly connected with Spurs’ underwhelming performance data. The hosts might sit fourth in the Premier League standings based on points collected during the Mourinho era, however, Expected Goals (xG) paints a different picture. Tottenham actually rank 10th in terms of xG ratio under his tutelage, returning a negative process (48% xG).
If Champions League ambitions are to be realised, those figures will require significant improvement and I’m not sure the solid and stable arrivals of Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg and Matt Doherty will necessary transform Tottenham’s fortunes. Sure, they’ll add energy, intensity and a bit more assurance, but Spurs still require a few upgrades across the park.
Everton, on the other hand, have splashed the cash again this summer. After the eye-catching arrival of multiple Champions League-winning coach Carlo Ancelotti in December, the Toffees have attempted to overhaul their stodgy midfield with the additions of James Rodriguez, Allan and Abdoulaye Doucoure - all three putting pen to paper in the past week.
Ancelotti wanted energy in central areas – he’ll get that in spades from the latter duo – and the hope is the Italian can oversee a renaissance from 2014 World Cup Golden Boot winner James in the pocket behind tried-and-trusted front pairing Richarlison and Dominic Calvert-Lewin. However, it’s very difficult to know if one or all three will feature on Sunday.
Everton were buoyant, adventurous and competitive before the pandemic and alarmingly dropped-off post-lockdown. If Ancelotti can find the right balance, his side should feature towards the upper end of the Premier League table, and be capable of giving Spurs a game this weekend. With that in mind, I’m happy to lean towards them.
Supporting Everton in the Double Chance market is fair enough at evens but my preferred play is the 17/20 available on the Super Sunday showdown banking in the Both Teams To Score column.
Everton aren’t accustomed to pocketing maximum points at Big Six sides, but they have grabbed a goal in half of their last 12 trips to the league’s elite. What’s more, BTTS has provided profit in 62% of Jose Mourinho’s league matches in charge at Spurs, with Everton returning a 60% win rate in the same market since Ancelotti arrived on Merseyside.
Elsewhere, I’m happy to have a small interest in Lucas Digne attempting 2+ shots at 100/30. The French full-back has fired in 63 attempts from 70 Premier League appearances since arriving at Goodison Park, and is regularly given set-piece duties. Meanwhile, only five sides faced more efforts at goal than Spurs last season.
Prediction: Tottenham 1-1 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Best Bets
2pts Both Teams To Score at 17/20
0.50pts Everton Lucas Digne to have 2+ shots at 10/3
Odds correct at 1636 BST (10/09/20)
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