Free football betting tips: Wolves v Newcastle - Mark O'Haire's Super Sunday preview & tips

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3pts Wolves to win and Under 4.5 Goals at evens

Wolves v Newcastle

• 1630 BST kick-off on Sky Sports
• Match Odds: Home 4/5 | Draw 18/5 | Away 5/2

Wolves are undergoing a quiet revolution. The Old Gold have seen first-team regulars Matt Doherty and Diogo Jota depart with head coach Nuno Espirito Santo proclaiming his Black Country boys will be looking to transition into a more proactive style of football this term.

Such promises are yet to come to fruition as Wolves bed-in a series of new arrivals but Wanderers remain a tough nut to crack. Stubbornly seeing off Fulham and Leeds by the same 1-0 scoreline either side of the international break has pushed Nuno’s charges into the top-six of the embryonic league standings, and a further success is possible on Sunday.

Wolves welcome Newcastle to Molineux and appear an appealing play. The Old Gold are rated 4/5 shots to seize maximum points – quite a change from the 9/20 that was offered in the same fixture last January. Of course, the lack of home supporters has had an impact on the price, although evidence suggests Wanderers remain as tough as old boots to beat.

On Monday, Nuno’s troops were second-best for large swathes of their showdown at Elland Road, coming to the fore after the interval, a familiar trend to Wolves’ followers last term. Raul Jimenez’s deflected strike proved decisive and his partnership with Daniel Podence will be key to the Old Gold’s hopes of progress as rebuilding work continues.

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Three of the club’s latest recruits were on the bench at Leeds, including £35.6m teenager Fabio Silva, with the indications that Nuno has not quite settled on his preferred use of the talents at his disposal. However, sticking to tried-and-trusted personnel and approach should prove conducive in a contest against an erratic Newcastle outfit.

The Toon faced 14 shots on-target in their 4-1 defeat at home to Man Utd last time out, and have been comfortably dispatched by Brighton also. The 1-1 draw earned at Tottenham in the Magpies’ most recent road trip was completely unjust and Steve Bruce’s boys have again been defying the data to collect their seven-point haul (W2-D1-L2).

Thus far, Newcastle have averaged only 2.40 shots on-target per-game and somehow managed to convert 57% of their total on-target efforts. That’s a completely unsustainable rate and highlighted further by the fact the visitors are generating only 0.87 non-penalty Expected Goals (xG) on average, another alarming reflection on the Toon’s output.

Wolves won 33 points against the bottom-seven in 2019/20 and should be well capable of collecting top honours here at a decent price. I will be greedy though, and chuck in Under 4.5 Goals to bolster the odds on offer to evens. Only four of the hosts’ 40 Molineux matches in the Premier League under Nuno have concluded with five or more goals.

Score prediction: Wolves 2-0 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)

Best Bet: Wolves to win and Under 4.5 Goals at 1/1

Odds correct on 1430 BST (22/10/20)

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