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Super Sunday cheat sheet: Newcastle vs Liverpool tips, BuildABet, best bets and preview
Tom Carnduff's (@TomCarnduff) 9/1 BuildABet missed out by a single foul last week as West Ham shocked Chelsea. Will Newcastle and Liverpool follow suit in a goal-filled game?
Football betting tips: Super Sunday
1pt Dominik Szoboszlai to score anytime at 15/2 (Sky Bet)
Suggested BuildABet @ 11/1
Newcastle 14+ total shots
Liverpool 12+ total shots
Dominik Szoboszlai 2+ fouls
10+ corners
A tough match to call
A second Super Sunday appearance of the season for Liverpool, and unlike in previous campaigns, the uncertainty surrounding their current position makes that a positive for the neutral.
They travel to Newcastle as 2/1 outsiders for victory. A clear sign of the progression made under Eddie Howe and their strong showings in front of their own supporters, but also a reminder that it isn't the 'dominant' Liverpool side of old.
In April 2022, Jurgen Klopp's side were around the 1/2 mark in this fixture. Ten months later they were 7/4. Both ended in victory, yet those odds outline just how key these meetings will become across the next few years.
Questions remain about the true strength of Liverpool's midfield after a partial summer rebuild.
Some of the attention will be on the final week of the transfer window rather than the football on the pitch - will a defensive midfielder be pictured on the Anfield turf holding up a red shirt before Friday night?
Four points from six represents a positive start to their campaign. Newcastle, though, have every chance of inflicting Liverpool's first defeat.
Szoboszlai catches the eye
What can be said though is that the contest has all the potential to be a high scoring one - successfully following the path of the West Ham 3-1 Chelsea contest that we enjoyed last Super Sunday.
There's a number of candidates to look at, but given what we've seen across the opening two games DOMINIK SZOBOSZLAI TO SCORE ANYTIME looks an interesting bet at 15/2.
He posted three shots in that win over Bournemouth last time out - one of which was on target - while he had an effort blocked in the opening weekend draw at Chelsea.
The above heat map outlines how advanced he has found himself across Liverpool's two fixtures.
Having watched Szoboszlai a fair bit during his time at Leipzig, it's good to see that his new club are still allowing him to shoot from distance. These chances are low probability yes, but that's different when it's a player with a capability of testing the keeper from range.
A look at his shot locations from the Bundesliga last season support his ability to do so. Counting 36 shots from outside the area, 14 of those were on target - a solid enough 39% on-target.
And then, of course, you have those from inside the box as well. I do also wonder if he's a potential penalty taker after Mohamed Salah failed to convert last weekend.
Revisiting our heat map also shows how he finds himself in a variety of positions across the pitch.
That has impacted his FOULS count already this season, making 2+ in this game an appealing addition to any multiple.
He didn't make one in the win over Bournemouth - a game in which Liverpool enjoyed 65% possession - yet committed three against Chelsea, which feels like the main thing to focus on here.
Liverpool were also a team who averaged 10.7 fouls per away game last season.
Shots, shots, shots
Given the match-up, it should be a game filled with opportunities at both ends of the pitch.
Liam Kelly (The Kelly Bet) has discussed this selection already in far more (and better) detail than I will here, but NEWCASTLE 14+ TOTAL SHOTS is well worth backing.
Eddie Howe's side averaged 18.1 per home game last season. Only Arsenal (18.6) and Brighton (18.5) averaged more.
Liverpool's current vulnerability is outlined in the fact that they conceded 13 to Bournemouth and 10 to Chelsea. Newcastle had 17 shots for their five goals against Aston Villa.
And yet, Liverpool's attack remains strong, and it's not very often that you get the opportunity to add LIVERPOOL 12+ TOTAL SHOTS to a multiple. The line is usually much higher.
They averaged 14.6 shots per away league game in 22/23. That was the second-highest in England's top flight - top spot went to Manchester City with 14.9.
Despite Newcastle's convincing scoreline against Villa, the stats were much closer.
The away side posted 16 shots in total with six of those on target.
Count the corners
Corner betting is largely about game state and this is a contest that has all the potential to see this count hit double figures.
It's also a meeting of two attack-minded teams. Newcastle's 270 corners last season was the most in the Premier League. Liverpool sat third with 235.
The two fixtures between these sides delivered 13 corners in each game, making 10+ CORNERS well worthy of consideration.
With attacks at both ends expected, it's likely we'll see a few of those shots and crosses deflected behind.
Value in offsides?
One stat that was slightly surprising from last season was Liverpool averaging the highest number of offsides per away league game (2.5).
All options are priced above even money to be caught at least once, meaning it could be worth adding MOHAMED SALAH 1+ OFFSIDES to bump up the value on a multiple.
Salah saw one offside in the draw at Chelsea, while he had a total of 22 in the Premier League last season. That put him fourth in the league.
Super Salah can strike again
We've just discussed Salah's offside potential there, but one price that also jumps out is the 10/11 on SALAH TO SCORE OR ASSIST.
There's nothing quite like FPL (Fantasy Premier League) overreaction. "Should I take Salah out?" appeared on Reddit following his penalty miss against Bournemouth.
They seem to have ignored the fact that he scored the rebound. They seem to have ignored the fact he got an assist against Chelsea.
In what should be an end-to-end contest, Salah will see opportunities to contribute in attack.
Team news
Joelinton took part in Newcastle training in the latter stages of the week so Eddie Howe believes that he will be fine to start.
New signing Lewis Hall is also available for selection, although he hasn't been with their group for long so a starting spot is unlikely.
The good news for Liverpool is that Trent Alexander-Arnold is fit to play after picking up a knock against Bournemouth.
Ibrahima Konaté is a doubt though, while midfielders Thiago and Curtis Jones have only recently returned to training so will miss Sunday's clash, but they will be available for selection from Monday onwards.
Predicted line-ups
Newcastle: Pope; Trippier, Schar, Botman, Burn; Tonali, Guimaraes, Joelinton; Almiron, Isak, Gordon
Liverpool: Alisson; Alexander-Arnold, Matip, van Dijk, Robertson; Endo, Mac Allister, Szoboszlai; Salah, Jota, Diaz
Match facts
- Liverpool are on the longest current unbeaten run in the Premier League, a run of 13 matches (W8 D5) since losing 4-1 at Man City in April. They've fallen behind in five games in that sequence, gaining nine points from losing positions, more than any other side since the first game of this unbeaten run.
- Newcastle haven't lost any of their last 22 Premier League games when they've taken the lead (W19 D3) since a 2-1 loss at Liverpool last August. At St James' Park, the Magpies are yet to lose in the league under Eddie Howe after taking the lead (W20 D6).
- Newcastle have won 20 of their 34 home Premier League matches under Howe (D10 L4), with only Kevin Keegan winning 20 home top-flight matches in fewer games as Magpies boss (30 games).
- In his top-flight league managerial career, Liverpool's Jürgen Klopp has beaten Howe more times than he has any other manager (11), winning each of his last 10 Premier League games against him. No manager has ever registered 11 consecutive Premier League wins against another, with Klopp's 10 against Howe the joint-longest.
- Mohamed Salah registered his 200th Premier Leaque goal involvement with his goal against Bournemouth on MD2 (2 goals, 1 assist for Chelsea + 138 goals, 59 assists for Liverpool). He's only the 12th player to achieve that feat and the first African player to do so.
- Callum Wilson has scored six goals in his last seven Premier League appearances at St James' Park for Newcastle, averaging a goal every 56 minutes across those games, with five of the six goals coming as a substitute. He has more sub goals than any other Premier League player in 2023 (5), with Omar Niasse (6) and Olivier Giroud (7) the last players to score more in a single year back in 2017.
Odds correct at 1150 BST (25/08/23)
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