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Super Sunday cheat sheet: Arsenal vs Manchester City tips, BuildABet, best bets and preview
Tom Carnduff (@TomCarnduff) has already seen a 5/1 winner involving Arsenal this season when they beat Manchester United. He turns his attention to the contest against City on Sunday.
Footbal betting tips: Premier League
2pts Julian Alvarez to score or assist at 6/4 (Paddy Power)
Back our suggested BuildABet @ 13/2
Julian Alvarez 3+ total shots
Ruben Dias 1+ fouls
Kyle Walker 1+ fouls
Gabriel Magalhaes 1+ fouls
It's been a case of picking up where we left off.
Just one point separates leaders Manchester City and Sunday's opponents Arsenal in the Premier League table, yet it's a game in which uncertainty with the team news creates uncertainty in a verdict.
Bukayo Saka remains doubtful for involvement, and his four goals and two assists across seven league games so far perfectly highlight his early impact for the hosts. That would usually give City the advantage, but they face problems of their own.
Rodri serves the final match of his suspension and City's record without him is concerning by their own usual lofty standards. They've lost both of the games while the midfielder sits on the sidelines.
Arsenal did struggle in both encounters with City during their title racing 22/23 campaign though, and it's often worth serious consideration when 6/4 is available on victory for Pep Guardiola's men.
In truth though, the result market is one to be avoided as we sit back and enjoy a genuine 'Super' Sunday contest.
All in on El Araña?
JULIAN ALVAREZ has been demonstrating why Guardiola recently claimed that the forward is 'almost undroppable'.
Three goals and three assists (or five if you're an FPL player) sit on his Premier League tally at this early stage - and his performances show no sign of dropping off.
At a price of 6/4, there is appeal in taking ALVAREZ TO SCORE OR ASSIST in this contest.
The reason I mention the FPL angle there is that the price is with Paddy Power, who clarify that 'winning a penalty or free-kick that is then scored will count as an assist' - much like it is in fantasy football.
His match-winning performance against RB Leipzig in the Champions League gives further confidence to the selection. He contributed both a goal and an assist despite being brought on in the 79th minute at 1-1.
With Erling Haaland a shorter 5/6, El Araña is the value pick in the market when we consider his showings so far.
Alongside backing him for goal involvement, taking ALVAREZ 3+ TOTAL SHOTS is a nice place to start in a multiple.
Six of his seven league appearances so far have delivered at least three shots, while Arsenal's 13 shots conceded to Tottenham and ten to Manchester United give further hope to the visitors seeing opportunities to score here - they're a better team than both.
Suspect foul play...
This could be a game filled with the tactical fouls we often see from the top teams.
Neither side will want to allow the other to really get going, and any opportunity to break down potential attacks at the earliest possible point will be welcome.
There are three selections to include here which round off our recommended multiple.
The first one to focus on is RUBEN DIAS 1+ FOULS. The City defender has played his part in this metric across the opening part of the season.
Four of his six league appearances so far have delivered at least one foul, and a point of interest is that three of those were away games. He's also committed two fouls in the Champions League.
It's easy to slightly mis-time a challenge as Arsenal look to move around their front line. It's a low ask for just one but adds good enough value.
Staying with City, and I'll go with KYLE WALKER 1+ FOULS.
City's right-back is likely to come up against former teammate Gabriel Jesus as Arsenal are forced into shuffling their forward line a bit, and the single foul required is low enough to warrant involvement in a multiple.
He's achieved this in three of City's four away league games, while there were two in this fixture last season.
On the Arsenal side of things, GABRIEL is the player to focus on. The defender has contributed in the fouls department.
He's seen a foul committed in every league game so far - an impressive stat considering he didn't start in his first two appearances. The centre-back also had one in the home Champions League win over PSV.
Decisive Declan
Expected to feature in the Arsenal midfield once again is DECLAN RICE, and his price for 3+ TACKLES adds a good bit of value.
The England international has posted at least four successful tackles in three of his Premier League contests so far and, like fouls, we should see a fair few here.
This fixture had a total of 30 last season, and given Rice's position on the pitch, it's fair to assume he'll continue contributing in this area.
Count on Kovacic
On the opposite side to Rice will be MATEO KOVACIC, and I like the chance of him replicating the Arsenal man's 3+ TACKLES.
He'll be playing a more defensive role given Rodri's suspension, and that led to him posting three successful tackles in 65 minutes of the game against Wolves.
Team news
The major issues for both sides have been discussed already.
Saka may not be risked for the hosts, even if he could potentially play. Jurrien Timber remains out for the long-term while Gabriel Martinelli may not feature until after the international break.
Rodri serves the final match of his three-game suspension, while Kevin De Bruyne is still missing and isn't expected to return until December.
Predicted line-ups
Arsenal: Raya; White, Saliba, Gabriel, Zinchenko; Odegaard, Rice, Vieira; Jesus, Nketiah, Trossard
Man City: Ederson; Walker, Akanji, Dias, Gvardiol; Lewis, Kovacic; Foden, Alvarez, Doku; Haaland
Match facts
- Should Man City beat Arsenal, it would be the joint-longest Premier League winning run for a team against an opponent, equalling Man Utd against Wigan (13 between 2005 and 2011) and City themselves against West Brom (13 between 2012 and 2018).
- Arsenal haven’t kept a clean sheet in any of their last 16 Premier League games against Manchester City, since a 2-0 away win in January 2015. It's their longest run without a league shutout against an opponent since a run of 30 against Manchester United between 1953 and 1968.
- Arsenal are unbeaten in their last eight Premier League games (W6 D2), with no side currently on a longer such run coming into this weekend's games (Spurs also 8). However, they've kept just four clean sheets in their last 28 home league games, with 63% of their goals conceded since the start of last season coming at the Emirates Stadium (31/49).
- Having won their first six Premier League games this season, Man City lost 2-1 at Wolves last time out. They've not lost consecutive league games in almost five years, last doing so in December 2018 against Crystal Palace and Leicester.
- Man City have the biggest positive difference (+83) between total shots (127) and shots faced (44) in the Premier League this season, and the biggest positive difference (+9.6) between expected goals (14.8) and expected goals against (5.2).
- Arsenal’s Mikel Arteta has beaten 23 of the 24 teams he’s faced as a manager in the Premier League, failing only against Man City, losing all seven meetings. Indeed, the Spaniard averages a minimum of at least one point-per-game against all other 23 clubs he has faced in the division.
- Erling Haaland – who was involved in four of Manchester City's seven league goals against Arsenal last season – has scored in each of his last four Premier League appearances in London. The only player to score in five in a row in the capital (for a team outside of London) is Ruud van Nistelrooy, who did so between September 2002 and September 2003.
Odds correct at 1540 BST (06/10/23)
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