For every round of Super 6, Jake Osgathorpe (@JAKEOZZ) uses expected goals (xG) data to assess the match-ups and make his correct score predictions.
It was a decent round for me last time out, as while I didn't land a correct score, it was five out of six for the correct results, only Spurs' late equaliser costing me a full house on that front.
The midweek slate looks a little tricky with some potentially tight games, but let's hope to back up last week's showing with another decent one.
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Round 22 predictions
- Sheff Utd 1-3 Liverpool
- Brighton 2-2 Brentford
- C Palace 1-2 Bournemouth
- Fulham 2-1 N Forest
- Man Utd 1-3 Chelsea
- Aston Villa 2-1 Man City
A Blue battering
- Manchester United vs Chelsea
- Amazon Prime Video: Wednesday, 20:15 GMT
Can things get any worse for Manchester United? Yep. What's the last thing this laboring, lackluster and defensively vulnerable team needs? A visit of an energetic, high-pressing, physical and attack-minded Chelsea team champing at the bit.
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United have a negative process (1.50 xGF, 1.80 xGA per game), which is staggering for a team currently seventh in the league, and highlights that they are in a massively false position, while Chelsea are the opposite (2.10 xGF, 1.38 xGA per game), and should be higher.
Mauricio Pochettino has his side ticking, and taking their chances, which wasn't the case earlier in the season, with a win here moving them to within two points of Wednesday's hosts.
Score prediction: Manchester United 1-3 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 16/1)
Villans to catch City
- Aston Villa vs Manchester City
- Amazon Prime Video: Wednesday, 20:15 GMT
Aston Villa have won 13 straight home Premier League games and can go above Manchester City with a win in this game. Who had that on their bingo card at the start of the season...?
Granted, Unai Emery's side are yet to play a 'big team' at home this season in their six-match winning streak, but they have made light work of their visitors, netting 23 times and conceding just five, averaging 2.62 xGF and 0.89 xGA per game.
This is a test of just how real Villa are, facing a reeling and seemingly vulnerable City side who have drawn their last three games, conceding eight times in the process and allowing three late equalisers. They will be without their linchpin midfielder Rodri for this game, and have lost their only two games this season without him, so Villa could well cause an upset.
Score prediction: Aston Villa 2-1 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
A Red barrage
- Sheffield United vs Liverpool
- Amazon Prime Video: Wednesday, 19:30 GMT
What a woeful weekend it was for Sheffield United, getting thumped 5-0 by a fellow struggler and returning back to the foot of the table. They have been shocking this season, as an underlying process of 0.76 xGF and 2.51 xGA per game attests.
They welcome an attacking juggernaut in Liverpool on Wednesday and things could get ugly, again. The Reds are averaging 2.27 xGF per game and firing on all cylinders, though that slight defensive vulnerability remains which means the Blades could get on the scoresheet.
Score prediction: Sheffield United 1-3 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
All square at the Amex
- Brighton vs Brentford
- Amazon Prime Video: Wednesday, 19:30 GMT
Brighton have been incredibly fun to watch this season, with both teams scoring in all 14 of their league games so far. That highlights their fantastic attacking play (1.72 xGF) but also their extremely poor defensive play (1.57 xGA per game).
The visit of Brentford could see both in the spotlight again, with the Bees in fact boasting a better underlying process than their hosts this season (2.00 xGF, 1.35 xGA per game) despite sitting three places below them in the table, and having the capability to bloody the nose of Brighton.
Score prediction: Brighton 2-2 Brentford (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Cherries on the charge
- Crystal Palace vs Bournemouth
- Amazon Prime Video: Wednesday, 19:30 GMT
What to expect from Crystal Palace? That is the question. We've seen some extremely dull games involving them, with a defence-first mindset, and we've seen some wild, high-scoring games too. Either way, they are a team who don't create many chances, mustering just 1.15 xGF per game and nine goals across their last 10 league matches.
Bournemouth have kicked into gear. They have picked up 10 points from their last five games, which has included three matches against teams currently in the top six, averaging 2.04 xGF and 1.07 xGA per game in the process.
If they continue in a similar manner, the Cherries will vault clear of any relegation danger and into top-half contention. That defensive process in particular has me trusting them to get a win on Wednesday.
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 1-2 Bournemouth (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Fancying Fulham
- Fulham vs Nottingham Forest
- Amazon Prime Video: Wednesday, 19:30 GMT
If Nottingham Forest aren't careful, they could be at major risk of relegation. One win in 10 after a defeat at home to an Everton side in the bottom three, Steve Cooper is once again under pressure ahead of an away trip to Fulham. The Tricky Trees have lost five of seven away this season and really struggled to create (1.01 xGF per game).
Fulham pushed Liverpool all the way on Sunday in another high-scoring contest, with Marco Silva seemingly taking the handbrake off. The Cottagers have won three and lost three at home this season, but those defeats have come to Brentford, Chelsea and Manchester United, with the victories coming against teams in the bottom eight.
Score prediction: Fulham 2-1 N Forest (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
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