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Super 6 predictions and correct score tips: Rampant Reds
For every round of Super 6, Jake Osgathorpe (@JAKEOZZ) uses expected goals (xG) data to assess the match-ups and make his correct score predictions.
Another round of four correct results and just the one correct score in midweek, so some consistency at least. A reminder you can find the full Super 6 record here.
The Premier League again takes centre stage this weekend, with three of the games on the slate a tad tricky to predict. Let's give it a go though.
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Round 16 predictions
- Man City 3-0 Bournemouth
- Everton 1-1 Brighton
- Brentford 2-0 West Ham
- Newcastle 0-1 Arsenal
- N Forest 0-2 Aston Villa
- Luton 1-3 Liverpool
Reds to march on
- Luton vs Liverpool
- Sky Sports: Sunday, 16:30 GMT
Liverpool are starting to look like serious contenders for the Premier League title. Their attack is purring, generating 2.37 xGF per game, and their defence is improving. They should win at Luton, but, their defensive record when travelling is a concern.
The Reds have conceded in 19 of their 24 away league games since the start of last season, allowing 1.70 xGA per game in that time, and the hosting Hatters have created plenty at Kenilworth Road this term - 1.65 xGF per game - as well as netting in seven of 10 top-flight games.
Score prediction: Luton 1-3 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
'1-0 to the Arsenal'
- Newcastle vs Arsenal
- Sky Sports: Saturday, 17:30 GMT
Newcastle bounced back from disappointment at Wolves with an emphatic win over Manchester United in the Carabao Cup, but face another really tough game this weekend before a huge Champions League clash at Dortmund next week. Team rotation will likely continue for Eddie Howe, who is effectively missing the spine of his team; Sven Botman, Sandro Tonali and Alexander Isak.
Arsenal are near fully fit, and have become a top travelling team. The Gunners have won 15 of their last 23 away league games, including in this fixture last season. They have kept 13 clean sheets in that time too, so could be the team to keep Newcastle's attack at bay.
Score prediction: Newcastle 0-1 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
No stopping Villa
- N Forest vs Aston Villa
- Sky Sports: Sunday, 14:30 GMT
Aston Villa are starting to look like a serious threat in the top-four race. They head to Nottingham Forest on the back of a free midweek - a rare occurrence for Unai Emery's side this season - and are really firing in attack, averaging 2.08 xGF per game.
Nottingham Forest have not lost at home yet this season, but don't let that record fool you. Steve Cooper's side have faced Sheffield United, Burnley, Brentford and Luton at the City Ground, so six points from those four games is below expectation, as is the fact that they rank as the fourth worst attacking team in the league this season having mustered just 1.18 xGF per game.
Score prediction: N Forest 0-2 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
Another Hammer blow
- Brentford vs West Ham
- Saturday, 15:00 GMT
Yes, West Ham had a big win over Arsenal in midweek in the Carabao Cup, but, so far this season they have struggled with the midweek-weekend schedule - as they did early last season - with David Moyes' side shipping 2.08 xGA per game in their Premier League contests while their stalling attack has mustered just 0.91 xGF per game in their last six.
The Hammers will also be missing the suspended pair of Edson Alvarez and Lucas Paqueta this weekend, meaning Brentford can make it a hat-trick of wins. The Bees are climbing back towards where their performances suggest they should be, and their home record is excellent. Since the start of last season they have W12 D10 L3 and averaged 1.88 xGF and 1.25 xGA per game.
Score prediction: Brentford 2-0 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Toffees on the up
- Everton vs Brighton
- Saturday, 15:00 GMT
Brighton have all of a sudden become a tricky team to pin down. Yes they continue to score goals, netting in every league game so far this season, but their xG figures have seen a little dip over their last two games - at both ends of the pitch. They have allowed 0.96 and 0.55 xGA.
Whether that trend continues remains to be seen, and while Everton have impressed of late, winning five of their last seven in all competitions, a rare free midweek for Brighton could see them contain an improving Toffees attack. This is a tough one to call.
Score prediction: Everton 1-1 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
A City cruise
- Man City vs Bournemouth
- Saturday, 15:00 GMT
How good were City last week ey? A 3-0 paddling of their neighbours, away from home, and a game in which their attack fired for the first time in a while, racking up a whopping 4.00 xGF. That's more than they managed in their four previous league games combined!
Their defence has never been in question though, with City leading the league in terms of xGA per game with 0.72, so will likely hold Bournemouth at bay while punishing their vulnerable defence. The Cherries allowing 2.41 xGA per game after all.
Score prediction: Man City 3-0 Bournemouth (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
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