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Super 6 predictions and correct score tips: No Turkish delight for Manchester United
For every round of Super 6, Jake Osgathorpe (@JAKEOZZ) uses expected goals (xG) data to assess the match-ups and make his correct score predictions.
The less said about last weeks effort the better, with West Ham's late turnaround somewhat sparing my blushes...
Onto round 20 though, and Champions League action.
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Round 20 predictions
- PSG 3-1 Newcastle
- Man City 2-0 RB Leipzig
- Milan 2-1 Dortmund
- Galatasaray 2-1 Man Utd
- Arsenal 2-0 Lens
- Real Madrid 1-1 Napoli
Away struggles for Toon
- PSG vs Newcastle
- Tuesday, 20:00 GMT
Yes, PSG were hammered at St. James' Park, but this game will be completely different. Luis Enrique's Parisiens are on a roll, winning seven of eight in all competitions since that defeat, including four straight at home across which they have scored 14 times.
Newcastle's away form has been poor all season, just two wins across nine outings, with one of those the 8-0 thrashing of Sheffield United. They are winless on the road in the UCL, and that should continue as a star-studded PSG get revenge and end the Magpies qualification hopes.
Score prediction: PSG 3-1 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
City to remain flawless
- Man City vs RB Leipzig
- Tuesday, 20:00 GMT
Manchester City have won all four Champions League outings to date, and can make it five against a vulnerable travelling Leipzig, though rotation may see them struggle to blow the visitors out.
The Germans have lost three of their last four road games, twice against a mid-table Wolfsburg side and once against third-bottom Mainz. City away is a step up on those clashes, with RBL losing 6-3 and 7-0 on their last two visits to the Etihad.
Score prediction: Man City 2-0 RB Leipzig (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Home comforts for Milan
- Milan vs Dortmund
- Tuesday, 20:00 GMT
Milan's home win over PSG put them right back in contention to qualify from 'the group of death'. In a competitive game, they edged proceedings against the Parisiens, and in their other home game - a 0-0 draw with Newcastle - Milan dominated and were unfortunate not to get the three points (xG: MIL 1.99 - 0.28 NEW).
Dortmund sit top of the group heading into matchday five after successive wins over Newcastle, but recent poor defensive displays are a concern. BVB have shipped 11 goals in their last five games across the Bundesliga and UCL, and Milan can add to that tally.
Score prediction: Milan 2-1 Dortmund (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Go for Gala
- Galatasaray vs Man Utd
- Wednesday, 17:45 GMT
It's must-not-lose territory for Manchester United, though in reality they have to win this to put their qualification destiny in their own hands. They are in decent form heading to Turkey, winning six of nine across all competitions, but despite good results, performances remain poor.
They conceded a host of chances again at the weekend (xG: EVE 2.47 - 2.22 MUN), and if that continues, a red-hot Gala attack can take advantage. They pushed Bayern close in both matches, and won the reverse fixture, generating 2.68 xG in the process. They could well do the double.
Score prediction: Galatasaray 2-1 Man Utd (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Easy for Arsenal
- Arsenal vs Lens
- Wednesday, 20:00 GMT
A win for Arsenal will secure top spot and qualification to the knockout rounds, and they should get it here. Bar defeat in France in the reverse game, the Gunners have been excellent, winning both home games to nil in a controlled manner.
Lens are in need of a result themselves, sitting third in the group, but are an inferior team to their hosts, and while their results have improved of late - winning three of their last five - they should be outclassed here.
Score prediction: Arsenal 2-0 Lens (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
All square at the Bernabeu
- Real Madrid vs Napoli
- Wednesday, 20:00 GMT
Real Madrid have already qualified for the knockouts, and avoiding defeat here will see them secure top spot. A win for Napoli would see them progress, and under new management - former Watford boss Walter Mazzari at the helm after another managerial switch - they can get a positive result in Spain.
Madrid have a lengthy injury list ahead of this clash, while Napoli looked more like their old selves when beating Atalanta at the weekend. Couple that with the fact the Italians have played their best stuff away in this competition this term, winning both games, and they can hold their hosts.
Score prediction: Real Madrid 1-1 Napoli (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
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