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Super 6 predictions and correct score tips: Boxing Day
For every round of Super 6, Jake Osgathorpe (@JAKEOZZ) uses expected goals (xG) data to assess the match-ups and make his correct score predictions.
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Round 27 predictions
- Bournemouth 3-1 Fulham
- Sheff Utd 1-1 Luton
- Burnley 0-3 Liverpool
- Man Utd 1-2 Aston Villa
- Chelsea 1-1 Crystal Palace
- Everton 0-2 Man City
Villans beat Devils
- Manchester United vs Aston Villa
- Amazon Prime Video: Tuesday, 20:00 GMT
Yes, Manchester United got a point at Anfield, but their problems remain, evidenced by the defeat at West Ham. It's all well and good heading to your bitter rival's cauldron and playing very negatively, but that set-up and approach didn't work at the London Stadium, and it won't be accepted in this game against Aston Villa - even if it should be.
Erik ten Hag's side have had a miserable time at Old Trafford of late, losing six of their last 10 in all competitions. Their four wins have come against Brentford via two injury time goals, Copenhagen, Luton and a sorry Chelsea team. Villa are a huge step up in class to those sides.
Unai Emery's side are one of the best in the country at the moment, and their away form - which was labelled as a their weak point - has been solid. Four wins two draws and three defeats - two of which came at Newcastle and Liverpool - with seven points from their last three tough away days a sign of things to come.
Score prediction: Manchester United 1-2 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
Awesome Andoni
- Bournemouth vs Fulham
- Amazon Prime Video: Tuesday, 15:00 GMT
Bournemouth have been excellent for some time now, with their underlying process at both ends of the pitch eye-catching. They have won two and drawn the other of their most recent three home games, and this match-up could suit their high-press style.
Fulham are on the up too after a slow start, but may be caught out here by a tactical mismatch, with the Cottagers' style seemingly suiting their hosts to the ground. Defensive issues remain for Marco Silva's side, especially away from home where they have allowed 2.33 xGA per game.
Score prediction: Bournemouth 3-1 Fulham (Sky Bet odds: 14/1)
All-square in six-pointer
- Sheffield United vs Luton
- Amazon Prime Video: Tuesday, 15:00 GMT
What a tough game to call this is. Two bad teams going at it. United's home form isn't the worst, and while Luton's away underlying process is diabolical (0.99 xGF, 3.20 xGA per game), set pieces could be important in this contest.
The Hatters have scored six goals from set-plays, the joint fourth most in the league, while Sheffield United have conceded the joint third most goals from such situations (7). However, I can't split these two.
Score prediction: Sheffield United 1-1 Luton (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Another home Burnley battering
- Burnley vs Liverpool
- Amazon Prime Video: Tuesday, 17:30 GMT
Burnley have been battered from pillar to post at Turf Moor this season, losing eight of their nine games in front of their own fans. Vincent Kompany's sole win at home came against Sheffield United, along with half of their goal total (10).
They have conceded 22 times in eight defeats - 2.75 goals conceded per game - which is far from ideal when a rampant Liverpool are in town. The Reds should make light work of their visit north, even though the Clarets welcome them after a win.
Score prediction: Burnley 0-3 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Cryst-draw Palace
- Chelsea vs Crystal Palace
- Amazon Prime Video: Wednesday, 19:30 GMT
Chelsea remain an enigma this season, you never know what you are going to get. Their underlying process is solid, the results are not.
Crystal Palace have started to find some consistency, holding decent teams to draws in their last two, and this game could follow suit.
Score prediction: Chelsea 1-1 Crystal Palace (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Gunner get something
- Everton vs Manchester City
- Amazon Prime Video: Wednesday, 20:15 GMT
Everton's defeat at Spurs was another decent performance (xG: TOT 1.34 - 1.95 EVE), and if they continue in the same manner for the rest of the season, the Toffees will be looking up rather than down.
However, Manchester City could well have hit the reset button at the Club World Cup. They won that competition, and kept two clean sheets in two dominant games against Urawa Red Diamonds and Fluminense.
While the Toffees are perhaps a step up on those two teams, this is where City start turning the screw. They've given everyone a head-start, this is where the chase begins. It is also worth noting that Pep's side have performed better away from home this season (2.57 xGF, 1.12 xGA per game) than at the Etihad (1.88 xGF, 0.86 xGA per game).
Score prediction: Everton 0-2 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
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