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Super 6 predictions and correct score tips: Bad weekend for Everton and Liverpool
Jake Osgathorpe (@JAKEOZZ) has so far banked two correct scores and six correct results in the new Super 6 season.
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Round three predictions
- Man United 3-0 Forest
- Arsenal 4-1 Fulham
- Everton 1-2 Wolves
- Brighton 3-1 West Ham
- Sheff United 0-3 Man City
- Newcastle 3-2 Liverpool
Last weekend didn't go as well as the opening weekend of Super 6 for me, though I was close to again landing some big correct scores at huge prices - for those who like betting on that market.
A further Bournemouth consolation at Anfield would have been sweet, the 3-2 I predicted priced at 18/1, while Brighton decided to score four again downing the 3-1 prediction (12/1). I wasn't expecting Everton to be just as bad as they were at Villa Park.
Elsewhere, finishing woes meant Manchester United were beaten at Tottenham, West Ham were at their vintage smash-and-grab best against Chelsea while champions Manchester City were in cruise control against a disappointing Newcastle.
Anyway, onto round three, where I've found four of the results straightforward to predict, the scorelines again causing headache, but I'll start with the most difficult matches to assess.
Wolves to edge six-pointer
EVERTON v WOLVES is a huge game. Both sides are winless, but history (if you believe in that stuff) suggests this match could have a huge bearing on whoever loses here - if there is a loser.
Of the 25 teams to have collected zero points and possess a goal difference of at least -5 or worse after three games in Premier League history - which would be the situation for either of these sides should they lose this game - 11 suffered relegation, so while it is just three games in, history suggests there is a 44% chance of relegation for the loser at Goodison Park.
I'm taking Everton to be that team, with their lack of goals a huge concern, especially with it appearing that Dominic Calvert-Lewin will be absent again.
The manner of Everton's defeat to Aston Villa still leaves me with major question marks around the Toffees as a team - with their defence a shambles on that occasion (xG: AVL 3.24 - 0.72 EVE).
Sean Dyche laid into his players after that game stating: "We started well, but it reminded me of last season when we conceded a goal and you smell the group going soft very quickly."
He nailed it.
Wolves have had a tougher schedule than their hosts (@ Man U, vs Brighton), and have shown glimpses in both, looking threatening in attack too.
At half-time against Brighton, while the scoreline was 2-0 to the visitors, the xG totals read WOL 1.02 - 1.23 BHA, so they hadn't been bad at all.
The score and the xG got away from them in the second half when chasing the game, but there were positives to take, just as there were against Manchester United.
At home under Dyche, the Toffees have won just four of ten while scoring just seven times. They have created the chances to score more, but poor finishing continues to be an issue.
Wolves will continue play on the front foot under Gary O'Neil, unlike to his predecessors, which means they will aim to win at Goodison Park which could lead to an entertaining game - not many will be expecting that.
Score prediction: Everton 1-2 Wolves (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Magpies to edge thriller
I was high on LIVERPOOL's chances of success this season, but their opening two games have shown that the same problems remain - defensively they are very gettable.
Whether all of that will change with the signing of Waturo Endo seems unlikely, but you never know. For now I'm going to stick with the trend of Liverpool bringing the chaos, and losing away from home.
The Reds have won just six of their last 20 away games in the Premier League, losing eight. That is not the record of a top four team.
Across that time they have averaged 1.78 xGF and 1.78 xGA per game, highlighting a propensity for chances at either end when they travel, with that defensive figure alarming.
NEWCASTLE are one of the best home teams in the land and have been unfortunate not to have won more than the 12 they have since the start of last season (20 games).
They have lost just twice though, and it's no surprise given their incredible underlying process at St. James' Park in that time (2.50 xGF, 0.95 xGA per game).
While they were held at arms-length by a more defensively astute Manchester City team last weekend, Newcastle should get an abundance of chances on Sunday to register a second straight home win.
Score prediction: Newcastle 3-2 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 14/1)
Easy home wins for big boys
ARSENAL should have no issues when hosting FULHAM on Saturday, with the Cottagers looking all over the place defensively.
Fulham could be in big trouble this season… 📉@JAKEOZZ 🎙#FFC pic.twitter.com/nA4r56Oqnp
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While the Gunners have been unconvincing to some so far this season, I have been impressed.
They were dominant against Crystal Palace on Monday, and should have been further ahead before being reduced to 10-men, the xG total reading CRY 0.32 - 2.20 ARS at that time.
Across their last 20 home games the Gunners have won 15 times, losing just twice, while posting an average of 2.29 xGF and 1.08 xGA per game.
They should win comfortably, though despite being a shambles at the back Fulham continue to create chances, so will likely strike. After all, Arsenal have kept only four clean sheets in their last 20 home league games.
Score prediction: Arsenal 4-1 Fulham (Sky Bet odds: 14/1)
Many will look at MANCHESTER UNITED's home game against NOTTINGHAM FOREST and think an upset could be on the cards, but I think the opposite.
United can win handily.
They weren't bad against Tottenham last time out, and had it not been for some poor finishing in the first half the result could have been oh so different.
They had comfortably been the better team heading into half-time, so there were plenty of positives despite the negativity post-match.
At Old Trafford this weekend, they should get a bounce-back win. Erik ten Hag's men have won 16 of 20 home league games since he took charge, posting a +1.31 expected goal difference (xGD) per game in that time.
They are usually dominant in front of their own fans.
Visitors Forest are among the league's worst travellers, winning just one of 20 since promotion from the Sky Bet Championship, while scoring just 12 times and averaging 0.83 xGF per game.
I expect a United win and a shutout.
Score prediction: Manchester United 3-0 Nottingham Forest (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Blunt Blades and brilliant Brighton
SHEFFIELD UNITED's woes have been touched on briefly on Sporting Life, but the bottom line is that they currently have a worst starting XI and squad than the one they gained promotion from the Championship with.
That doesn't bode well.
Performances so far this season against two bottom-half finishers from last season have been woeful, losing both and mustering a combined 0.97 xGF across the pair of matches.
Next up, MANCHESTER CITY.
While the champions will be without Pep Guardiola for this game, it shouldn't matter much, and the Citizens are expected to make it three wins from three with a hat-trick of accompanying clean sheets to boot when they take to the Bramall Lane turf.
Score prediction: Sheffield United 0-3 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Everyone's favourite team, BRIGHTON, top the table through two matches, though granted they have had a kind schedule, beating Luton and Wolves.
Their swashbuckling style continues to provide the entertainment, with their two games seeing a combined 10 goals and a huge 12.2 xG!
WEST HAM will prove the toughest test of the season so far for Roberto De Zerbi's men, but the way in which they allowed Chelsea to territorially dominate them last week doesn't bode well ahead of this clash.
After all, this Brighton team are a better attacking team than Chelsea currently, with more players capable of intricate passes and beating opponents 1v1, so we should all expect another win for the Seagulls.
As is always the case with De Zerbi's side though, they should concede having kept just nine clean sheets in his 34 games in charge.
Score prediction: Sheffield United 0-3 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
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