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Sunderland vs Newcastle FA Cup betting tips, BuildABet, best bets and preview
- Michael Beardmore (@MickeyBeardmore) is +31.75pts in profit for the 2023/24 football season
Football betting tips: FA Cup
1pt Trai Hume to be shown a card at 18/5 (Unibet, BetMGM, BetUK)
1pt Sean Longstaff to be shown a card at 11/2 (Sky Bet)
Sunderland and Newcastle fans have had to wait almost eight years for this latest instalment of the Tyne-Wear derby due to the Black Cats' continued absence from the Premier League.
But never have they looked closer to a return to the top flight than over the past 12 months or so - and as providence would have it, they've been handed an FA Cup third-round tie that will test those credentials against their archest of rivals.
Newcastle followers will need little reminding of their rotten record in derby-day fixtures in the run-up to Sunderland's relegation in 2016 - the Magpies are winless in nine against the Wearsiders, a run that included six successive defeats.
And they hardly go into this fixture on top of the world either - their injury-ravaged squad having lost seven of their past eight, knocked out of both the Carabao Cup and Champions League in that spell as their season threatens to unravel somewhat.
What are the best bets?
It might seem counter-intuitive but I think Sunderland would have had a better chance in this one if Newcastle were flying. After the poor run the Magpies have been on, I expect Eddie Howe to take this far more seriously than he may have done otherwise.
He will know about the terrible derby record too - Newcastle haven't beaten Sunderland since 2011 - and the last thing Howe needs right now is another defeat given the FA Cup is their only hope of ending a famed near 70-year major trophy drought.
The best bets in this game simply have to involve the referee's notebook - not only due to the undoubtedly highly-charged nature of the occasion (tickets have sold out and there will be 6,000 travelling fans) but also because of the man in the middle.
Craig Pawson is averaging five cards a game this season - he dished out 11 in Wolves vs Man City, nine yellows and a red in Chelsea vs Brighton and eight in Newcastle vs Brentford. He might run out of ink or notebook space in a Tyne-Wear derby.
Cup games can often feature a plethora of changes but this should be one of the exceptions given the derby element as well as a lengthy Newcastle injury list that will preclude Howe from tinkering too much.
A case can be made for plenty of players TO BE SHOWN A CARD but I'm plumping for Sunderland's Northern Ireland full-back TRAI HUME and Newcastle midfielder SEAN LONGSTAFF.
Hume has been carded five times in his past 17 appearances for club and country and loves to get stuck in - his average of 3.4 tackles per game is the third highest figure in the entire Sky Bet Championship, so 18/5 on a derby card looks hugely inviting.
Longstaff is an even bigger price at 11/2, massive odds on a man with five bookings in his past 15 matches. And, remember, he's a Geordie who will be as pumped up as anybody on derby day.
BuildABet @ 70/1
- Clarke to score anytime
- Hume to be shown a card
- Longstaff to be shown a card
Newcastle cannot keep clean sheets amid their injury crisis, conceding an average of 2.25 goals per game across their last eight matches - Jack Clarke, with 12 goals this season and averaging three shots a game, is Sunderland's likeliest scorer.
Team news
Black Cats winger Patrick Roberts is a doubt after missing the win over Preston with a calf injury. Bradley Dack, who suffered a hamstring injury against Hull on Boxing Day, is out, as are Dennis Cirkin, Corry Evans, Elliot Embleton and Niall Huggins.
Newcastle's injury woes show little sign of easing with skipper Kieran Trippier unlikely to recover in time from a groin issue that forced him to miss the 4-2 Premier League defeat at Liverpool on New Year's Day.
Callum Wilson (calf) is also expected to miss out, as is Joe Willock while Jacob Murphy, Harvey Barnes and Matt Targett are still weeks away from fitness with Nick Pope, Elliot Anderson and Sandro Tonali all longer-term absentees.
Predicted line-ups
Sunderland: Patterson; Hume, Ballard, O'Nien, Alese; Ekwah, Neil; Pritchard, Bellingham, Clarke; Rusyn
Newcastle United: Karius; Livramento, Schar, Lascelles, Hall; Joelinton, Guimaraes, Longstaff; Almiron, Isak, Gordon
Odds correct at 1230 GMT (04/01/24)
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