Serial bridesmaids Sunderland face Wycombe in an intriguing Sky Bet League One play-off final on Saturday. Michael Beardmore provides the preview and two best bets.
Football betting tips: League One play-off final
1.5pt Ross Stewart to score anytime at 2/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
0.5pt Joe Jacobson to score anytime at 9/1 (Unibet)
“Hello darkness my old friend, I’ve come to talk with you again.”
Now the animosity might not have reached Simon and Garfunkel levels, but it’s fair to say the Football League play-offs have caused Sunderland plenty of anguish down the years. And here they are once more.
Twice in the past three seasons they’ve fallen short, four times overall – you could argue that number is five as the one time they were promoted via the play-offs they actually lost the final to Swindon but went up due to Town's financial irregularities.
Can they break that hoodoo at Wembley on Saturday or will Wycombe once again revel in their reputation as underdogs who regularly give the bigger clubs a bloody nose?
Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Sunderland 23/20 | Draw 23/10 | Wycombe 12/5
Sporting Life RequestABet selections:
- Ross Stewart 1+ SOT: Sunderland striker averages 2.8 shots per 90 mins, 75% of which have been from inside the box
- Garath McCleary 1+ SOT: Wycombe winger averages 1.4 shots per 90 mins, 50% of which have been from inside the box
- Both Teams to Score: Seven of the last nine Sky Bet League One play-off finals have seen both teams score
- Sunderland BTTS hit-rate: 54% (54% away from home) | Wycombe BTTS hit-rate 50% (58% away from home)
The Chairboys’ play-off record is certainly healthier than their opponents, a 40% success ratio, promoted twice in five attempts with the most recent being fresh in the memory for Gareth Ainsworth and his squad, just two years ago in 2020.
That was the season they sneaked into the play-offs on points per game due to the Covid-19 pandemic ending the campaign prematurely – with, coincidentally, Sunderland, one of five teams they leapfrogged by virtue of that method.
Masters of brinkmanship, Wycombe snatched sixth spot from Plymouth on the final day this season, then beat MK Dons over two legs, holding off a second-leg onslaught, while Sunderland edged past Sheffield Wednesday, also 2-1 on aggregate.
Let’s face it – there’s far more pressure on Sunderland, seeking a return to the Championship after what must seem like four long years in League One, to win this game than there is on Wanderers.
Expected Goals data tells us the Chairboys were somewhat fortunate to grab a play-off spot – the Infogol metric has them down in ninth place over the season, with Sunderland fourth.
That makes odds-against shots Sunderland – top price 23/20 – appeal but I just can’t trust them on recent history, past history and the fact Wycombe are so adept at punching above their weight.
One man we can trust, however, is Black Cats top scorer Ross Stewart, who has bagged 25 league goals this season and seems to like facing Wycombe, scoring four times in two games against them (a 3-1 Sunderland win and 3-3 draw away).
The summer signing from Ross County has come up trumps in big games for Sunderland this term, netting a winner against champions Wigan, a hat-trick against Sheffield Wednesday and also scoring a key play-off semi-final goal against the Owls.
He’s also Sunderland’s penalty taker and given his form across the season and against Wycombe in general, I like the 2/1 available on STEWART TO SCORE ANYTIME with Paddy Power and Betfair - he's as short as 11/10 elsewhere.
From a Wycombe perspective, 17-goal Sam Vokes is available at 7/1 to score first and 10/3 anytime with Garath McCleary, 11 goals for the season, 9/1 to net first and 7/2 anytime.
Both have their merits but I’m going to advise small stakes on Chairboys captain JOE JACOBSON TO SCORE ANYTIME at 9/1 instead.
The 35-year-old is Wycombe’s regular penalty-taker but also pops up with a goal from open play – he’s netted 42 goals in 350 appearances for the club, pretty good going for a full-back, even one who takes spot-kicks.
Jacobson also scored Wycombe’s Wembley winner in the play-off final against Oxford two years ago and the odds on him netting again here are generous enough to keep you interested throughout.
Sunderland v Wycombe score prediction and best bets
- Ross Stewart to score anytime at 2/1 (Paddy Power/Betfair)
- Joe Jacobson to score anytime at 9/1 (Unibet)
Score prediction: Sunderland 1-1 Wycombe (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct 1145 BST (19/05/22)
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